Fold here?

[egj]

Fold here?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t435)
Hero (t1005)
UTG (t830)
MP (t2160)
CO (t1180)
Button (t2390)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls t50, Button calls t50, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t200) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t300</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t600</font>, SB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t1100

[kyro]

I'm going broke here. I think the only hand you really have to worry about is 76. I push this and hope he calls with K7 or less. As a big stack, he can afford to make calls you wouldn't normally make.

[Scuba Chuck]

What if he has 88, 99, TT, JJ etc? He might also be overplaying a flush draw?

Question: How healthy is your chipstack relative to the blinds? Do you think that you can utilize another edge later on that will net you chips? If so, then a fold here seems suitable.

[Mr_J]

"I think the only hand you really have to worry about is 76"

What about 66+ and 22???

[kyro]

I guess it depends on how aggressive he's been PF. I know if I'm big stack, I'm raising with a lot of mid-high pocket pairs, especially 88 and up. As for him hitting a set? I doubt he's raising a set here. It seems to me he'd call and try to get the rest in on the turn. It's probably player dependent though.

[Mr_J]

He'd probally only limp with 22. 66+ he might raise, but I think he's more likely to limp with 66-88. A set could definately minraise here. He might think Hero likes his hand and will push back. People also like to call minraises so maybe he's doing it to milk Hero. This is just too marginal too early (for me, and I'm at the $33s). I don't even bet this flop and keep my stack for the upcoming level 4 blinds.

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't even bet this flop and keep my stack for the upcoming level 4 blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your point here. I might not either depending on the game. Would you agree that if hero bets, he should call an all-in then? Especially a massive pot overbet.

[Phil Van Sexton]

What level is this? I'm guessing 10/1.

Regardless, betting 300 on this flop is terrible. You just bet 30% of your stack with a pair of 7s. What happens if someone calls? Now the pot is enormous and there's still 2 betting rounds to come.

I would've bet 125 on this flop.

Anyway, I guess I would've pushed in the example given. Maybe he's bluffing. Maybe he's buying a free card for his draw. I don't think folding is terrible though. You put yourself in a bad spot and you have no good choices at this point.

[egj]

&gt; What level is this? I'm guessing 10/1.

20/2

I'm not in love with my overbet. But I felt a healthy-size bet was necessary to chase out loose callers. Maybe pot-size would have been sufficient.

After betting 125 and getting called, how do you play when the turn comes 8-K?

[spentrent]

You're in a multi-way pot with a rag pair. Any of those limpers might:

1) Already have you beat with 88-AA
2) Semi-bluff raise a flush draw*
3) Semi-bluff raise a straight draw*
4) Semi-bluff raise two overs*

(*)They don't even need to know that this is what they are doing, or how strong a play this is.

In all three cases, if you face a reraise, you must fold a pair of sevens. Why? There are a TON of scare cards left in the deck, so you're going to fold on the turn anyway, even if a villain just calls your flop bet.

You do not need to commit so many chips to determine your plan of action. A standard lead at the flop -- .75 to 1 pot -- will provide you with enough information to continue.

Think about it this way: the only way you can scare out a true chaser is to push all your chips in the middle RIGHT NOW. Don't fear the chasers; simply set a high price to keep the pot odds in your favor. You don't need to overbet to do that.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, I guess I would've pushed in the example given. Maybe he's bluffing. Maybe he's buying a free card for his draw. I don't think folding is terrible though. You put yourself in a bad spot and you have no good choices at this point.

[/ QUOTE ]

Phil, I really value your opinions. But I respectfully disagree with your admission to the above results. If you do it fine, but your admission is further 'evidence' that this is the right play. I think there is good logic in the following statement: Better a small stack than no stack.

Furthermore, IMO, the checkraise is the only move I think the $10+1 Fish know. I would bet that a study of the checkraise on $10+1 tables would net 90%+ that the checkraiser has a strong hand.

[willie24]

yes, definitely.

also don't bet 1.5x pot with a pair of 7s

[willie24]

excellent post

[egj]

I agree with your conclusion, but not with your logic. If I think there's a high probability that my opponent has a draw or two overs, I shouldn't fold (I should go all-in). I'd be a big favorite.

I think the reason to fold is that he is very likely to already have me beat with an overpair.

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
If I think there's a high probability that my opponent has a draw or two overs, I shouldn't fold (I should go all-in).

[/ QUOTE ]

whether or not your statement is true depends on your definition of "high probability".


[ QUOTE ]
I think the reason to fold is that he is very likely to already have me beat with an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is certainly true. it is the combination of the already-beat and against-a-good-draw possibilities that make going against a semi-bluff so difficult, and make folding here the right play.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with your conclusion, but not with your logic. If I think there's a high probability that my opponent has a draw or two overs, I shouldn't fold (I should go all-in). I'd be a big favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't argue with that-- you're 100% correct, but that's not the issue. Hindsight is 20/20 my friend.

The real question is this: what would lead you to believe that a flop reraise means there's a high probability that you're up against a draw? Many players are hesitant, prudently so, to bluff more than one opponent. This hand features four players.

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
it is the combination of the already-beat and against-a-good-draw possibilities that make going against a semi-bluff so difficult, and make folding here the right play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well put. According to TOP, the best defense against a semi-bluff in indeed a fold. YMMV? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Phil Van Sexton]

Yeah, maybe you are right. At first I thought fold, then push.

The raiser has a lot of chips, so he really could be holding any 2 cards here, IMO. Sometimes I jump to the conclusion that someone with a lot of chips early is a maniac. Assuming he is non-maniac, Scuba is probably right, but I'd pretty damn pissed if I had to lay this down.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
After betting 125 and getting called, how do you play when the turn comes 8-K?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have position on the caller and a non-spade falls, I'm betting 175 and hoping to check behind on the river. If a spade falls, I check the turn.

If the caller has position on me and a non-spade falls, I think I'd check, but I'd be willing to call a small bet. If a spade falls, I'm probably going to check/call.

I see your thinking with the overbet. However, bad players will call/fold about the same whether you bet 300 or 125. Good players will see right through your overbet, and may decide to play back at you with a big stack and a strong draw.

[JoeTable]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess it depends on how aggressive he's been PF. I know if I'm big stack, I'm raising with a lot of mid-high pocket pairs, especially 88 and up. As for him hitting a set? I doubt he's raising a set here. It seems to me he'd call and try to get the rest in on the turn. It's probably player dependent though.

[/ QUOTE ]

With at least a moderate stack, I'd limp with 22-99 at 25/50. I think 7's are no good here.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
The raiser has a lot of chips, so he really could be holding any 2 cards here, IMO. Sometimes I jump to the conclusion that someone with a lot of chips early is a maniac. Assuming he is non-maniac, Scuba is probably right, but I'd pretty damn pissed if I had to lay this down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Phil, you wouldn't be as pisssed as OP because you wouldn't have made such a large bet. His original bet is the mistake, calling the reraise is compounding it.

Lose a bet, no big deal. Lose a pot, disasterous.

[JoeTable]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, maybe you are right. At first I thought fold, then push.

The raiser has a lot of chips, so he really could be holding any 2 cards here, IMO. Sometimes I jump to the conclusion that someone with a lot of chips early is a maniac. Assuming he is non-maniac, Scuba is probably right, but I'd pretty damn pissed if I had to lay this down.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's always the possibility that he got those chips by making large bets when he had the best of it and got called.