View Full Version : AJ vs tons of flop action
mcvalenc
02-11-2005, 02:25 AM
Normally I'd almost always see the turn card with a flop like this, since I'll typically raise preflop, but since there were alot of limpers already, I thought it'd be best to limp and see if I pair the flop.
What should I do on the flop?
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)
Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.
Flop: (7 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, MP3 folds, Hero...
KingOtter
02-11-2005, 02:52 AM
Oof, three to you. This is a tough one.
What could the villains have? BB could be betting a flush draw, or 2 pair, or an ace. A raise would probably mean at least an ace, perhaps 2-pair or a set. A 3-bet seems to guarantee you're at least up against another ace, probably more (all these contingent on reads, of course).
You likely have a better kicker for the pair of aces. 2-pair may be a little trickier, since the board would have to pair the right one, or your Jack. So maybe 8 outs to beat 2-pair, but they have to be precise outs, and you won't know if they are or not until the end unless it is a J or an A (5 of them). So you can really only count 5.
Against a set, you need an A, or runner-runner J (AA extremely unlikely since you see 2 already). So 2 outs, plus runner runner J, which is 3/47 * 2/46 = ~2% chance, or an out, so 3 outs total.
You have to call 3, and pot is sitting 13.
Hmm, looks like a fold to me.
KO
First off, even with a bunch of limpers your hand is strong enough to raise pf for value.
As for the flop, that's a tough one..I think the big clincher is MP1's 3-bet, since the bet and raise could easily be worse hands than yours. Do you have any reads on MP1? I guess if MP1 isn't LAGgy, I think I decide at this point that I'm drawing. And the odds aren't there to draw, so I guess I'd fold it. But this seems inherently wrong. Perhaps some of the slumming SSers could give their opinions on this one?
Redd
Fold. You're likely up against top two pair or a set.
mcvalenc
02-11-2005, 04:51 AM
I probably would have raised if it was only 2 bets to me, but the 3 bet really alarmed me... at that point I really didn't think I was up against something like 2 draws and a weaker A and the pot wasn't THAT big, so I folded.
As for limping w/AJ with several limped opponents... I'm a bit torn on that. AJ and KQ feel like borderline offsuit hands to raise/limp in situations like that. I'm not arguing that I don't have a pot equity edge preflop with AJ or KQ in this case, but I think giving up the preflop edge to exploit a potentially bigger edge on the flop is the better decision.
Oh, and the flop raiser ended up winning the hand w/A3s... the flop 3-bettor folded on the turn. I still think I made the right play (w/o any reads anyways). Thanks for the input.
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