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View Full Version : AJ vs tons of flop action


mcvalenc
02-11-2005, 02:25 AM
Normally I'd almost always see the turn card with a flop like this, since I'll typically raise preflop, but since there were alot of limpers already, I thought it'd be best to limp and see if I pair the flop.

What should I do on the flop?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, MP3 folds, Hero...

KingOtter
02-11-2005, 02:52 AM
Oof, three to you. This is a tough one.

What could the villains have? BB could be betting a flush draw, or 2 pair, or an ace. A raise would probably mean at least an ace, perhaps 2-pair or a set. A 3-bet seems to guarantee you're at least up against another ace, probably more (all these contingent on reads, of course).

You likely have a better kicker for the pair of aces. 2-pair may be a little trickier, since the board would have to pair the right one, or your Jack. So maybe 8 outs to beat 2-pair, but they have to be precise outs, and you won't know if they are or not until the end unless it is a J or an A (5 of them). So you can really only count 5.

Against a set, you need an A, or runner-runner J (AA extremely unlikely since you see 2 already). So 2 outs, plus runner runner J, which is 3/47 * 2/46 = ~2% chance, or an out, so 3 outs total.

You have to call 3, and pot is sitting 13.

Hmm, looks like a fold to me.

KO

Redd
02-11-2005, 03:00 AM
First off, even with a bunch of limpers your hand is strong enough to raise pf for value.

As for the flop, that's a tough one..I think the big clincher is MP1's 3-bet, since the bet and raise could easily be worse hands than yours. Do you have any reads on MP1? I guess if MP1 isn't LAGgy, I think I decide at this point that I'm drawing. And the odds aren't there to draw, so I guess I'd fold it. But this seems inherently wrong. Perhaps some of the slumming SSers could give their opinions on this one?

Redd

Dead
02-11-2005, 03:03 AM
Fold. You're likely up against top two pair or a set.

mcvalenc
02-11-2005, 04:51 AM
I probably would have raised if it was only 2 bets to me, but the 3 bet really alarmed me... at that point I really didn't think I was up against something like 2 draws and a weaker A and the pot wasn't THAT big, so I folded.

As for limping w/AJ with several limped opponents... I'm a bit torn on that. AJ and KQ feel like borderline offsuit hands to raise/limp in situations like that. I'm not arguing that I don't have a pot equity edge preflop with AJ or KQ in this case, but I think giving up the preflop edge to exploit a potentially bigger edge on the flop is the better decision.

Oh, and the flop raiser ended up winning the hand w/A3s... the flop 3-bettor folded on the turn. I still think I made the right play (w/o any reads anyways). Thanks for the input.