Sanity Check Please

[KenProspero]

I assume there's no getting away from this hand? But it's late at night, so confirmation needed.

First hand. (everyone starts with 1500T) Hero in SB

Dealt A /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif

4 callers to me, I call, as does big blind.

Flop 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Hero Checks (intending to slow play), 2 checks, MP bets 450, UTG calls, Hero calls, others fold.

Turn 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Hero pushes, MP calls, UTG folds.

MP shows 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Unfortunately, the 2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif does not show on the river.

Not a complaint, since that's poker, but I assume that almost no matter how I play this, I'm destined to be all-in and lose?

[willie24]

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Not a complaint, since that's poker, but I assume that almost no matter how I play this, I'm destined to be all-in and lose?

[/ QUOTE ]

correct

[AtticusFinch]

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Not a complaint, since that's poker, but I assume that almost no matter how I play this, I'm destined to be all-in and lose?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you could have rivered the 2h. What's wrong with you? (Sorry Lori)

[david050173]

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Not a complaint, since that's poker, but I assume that almost no matter how I play this, I'm destined to be all-in and lose?

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No, you could have rivered the 2h. What's wrong with you? (Sorry Lori)

[/ QUOTE ]

He could have pushed the flop (after his raise) and made the other guy decide if he wanted to go for the full house. With the huge overbet, you had to put him on 2 pair, trips, flush draw, or an over pair. I don't know the odds of him laying down trips but they are much higher than laying down quads /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

Your job here is to pay him off. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

What other hands might villain have, that have you beat? Full house comes to mind. Did this enter your into your thinking at all?

Well, FWIW, I think many, many 2+2ers will pay off villain in this scenario, including yours truly.

[adanthar]

After the bet/call of 450 into a pot of, like, 60, you can safely assume one of them has a smaller flush or a set and push. They'll put you on crap and call anyway because they like calling.

[The Yugoslavian]

Your sane enough in my non-professional opinion.

Although if that's seriously a serious question then perhaps I will change my diagnosis, /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Yugoslav

[curtains]

This is similar to the AA question from the WSOP. If its first hand of WSOP and everyone is allin do you call with AA? Of course not, and thats why this is also a clear fold.
You have many hands to chip away at your opponents, it's always a mistake to be allin, because if your opponent get's lucky you get eliminated.

[KenProspero]

[ QUOTE ]
Full house comes to mind. Did this enter your into your thinking at all?

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Actually, a full-house did briefly enter my thinking. However, with a flop of 345, I discounted it immediately, since it would have meant that Villian elected to play one of 35 or 45 pre-flop. I suppose 45s was a possibility (though I wouldn't call with that). Given the bet on the previous street, I suppose 4 of a kind could have come into my mind, however if he'd pushed when the 2nd 5 came down, there's no way (absent a heluva read) that I could fold just because someone 'may' have 4 5s.

My thoughts at the time were that he probably had a third 5 or a third 5 and a heart.

[KenProspero]

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No, you could have rivered the 2h. What's wrong with you?

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Yeah, I had exactly the same thought, I know if I'd played it differently the 2h would have fallen on the river. Someday when I'm a better player, I'll figure that out. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[The Yugoslavian]

I would have to respectfully disagree. Your $/hr will be hurt using this thinking. I don't feel that you can pass up significant edges early (and IMO hero has a significant edge in post flop play here vs. the range of hands he could be up against). I'm not familiar with the AA allin WSOP discussion but I wouldn't pass up such a +CEV edge there either (and I'm pretty sure there are quite a few pros who feel the same). However, you won't see me in the WSOP any time soon (pesky bankroll - not to mention skill - issues, /images/graemlins/wink.gif ).

Yugoslav

PS I met you at the 1998 US Open in Hawaii -- you seemed like a cool guy.
PPS If I remember correctly your sis was better then too (finishing higher than you), /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
This is similar to the AA question from the WSOP. If its first hand of WSOP and everyone is allin do you call with AA? Of course not, and thats why this is also a clear fold.
You have many hands to chip away at your opponents, it's always a mistake to be allin, because if your opponent get's lucky you get eliminated.

[/ QUOTE ]

This statement is correct for the WSOP. This statement is incorrect for Sit N Gos.

[swarm]

in SNG's you are not going to get away from this, I see no reason not to push once villan makes the large raise on the flop however, he still would have called however so no big deal.

I was thinking that 67 hearts was more likely to be your poison than quads on how the flop played out.

Regardless, in SNG' you are going to play this every time as people with AA, KK (especially with one heart) or a lower flush are going to make large bets here. By the time you were committed you were ahead anyway, so no one can say you played incorrectly.

It's a bad beat, plain and simple...

If you are going to play afraid of monsters when you flop an Ace high flush well then you don't have the right mind set for SNG's...

[curtains]

Cmon everyone I was joking! The guy has AJh and flop comes 543h and he asks whether he can get off the hand in a stupid pokerstars sit and go where someone could be sitting there with something like 88!

[willie24]

this is assuming you are much better player than the majority of your opponents.

i bet at least 90% of players would be right to go allin 9 handed with AA on the first hand of the WSOP

[Scuba Chuck]

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i bet at least 80% of players would be right to go allin 9 handed with AA on the first hand of the WSOP

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Willie, study your $EV more. Folding is more +$EV than calling an allin 9 handed with AA in a sit n go. Remember, sit n gos are a zero sum game. Those sitting on the sidelines increase their $EV in this situation, by a significant amount, I might add.

[The Yugoslavian]

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i bet at least 80% of players would be right to go allin 9 handed with AA on the first hand of the WSOP

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Willie, study your $EV more. Folding is more +$EV than calling an allin 9 handed with AA in a sit n go. Remember, sit n gos are a zero sum game. Those sitting on the sidelines increase their $EV in this situation, by a significant amount, I might add.

[/ QUOTE ]

We're talking about the WSOP here not a rapidly rising blind structure 3 payout 10 person STT. I definitely do not think that the amount of $EV you gain sitting on the sidelines here is anywhere close to the value of the chips you could win + future $EV prospects given the stack size you now weild. I wouldn't be surprised if the better you are the more reason you have to call with AA in this first hand of WSOP situation.

Yugoslav

[Scuba Chuck]

My apologies, he did say WSOP.

[Scuba Chuck]

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i bet at least 80% of players would be right to go allin 9 handed with AA on the first hand of the WSOP

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think 80% correct is correct. It's probably closer to 55-60%. If we're talking 9 handed.

[willie24]

i understand your point

that said, i think it's closer to 90%. it could be 100%, although i don't doubt that you are right that for some players against some opposition it would be right to fold.

if you win you get 13,500
if you lose you get 0
if you fold you get 1500

what are the %? something like .33/.67?
you are going to have to take some risks to get from 1500 to 13500 anyway- there's no way around that. this is a really good risk that will probably save you from worse risks later. (against most opposition)

[The Yugoslavian]

I think you can reasonably expect to have 20% equity in a 10way allin on the first hand with AA. I think it's foolhardy for *anyone* to pass this edge up. I concur that upwards of 90% of pros would call here (TJ and Phil H. would fold I guess but while being far superior to me, they're both chumps).

This is a case where the reward clearly outweighs the risk IMHO. This is the case for an SNG, WSOP or whatever.

Yugoslav