Cornell Fiji
02-10-2005, 09:15 PM
Posting this here for the resident 2+2 math wizzes.
This is a hand that was posted in Mid/High HE. I responded by examining the math on the call. The play in this hand is automatic IMO, I am just wondering if my math is good.
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The hand:
"20/40 TStone
SB in hand is semi-decent, thinking LAG. He likes to semibluff alot and won't give up on a bluff on the river. When he grabbed his chips after the flop, he looked around at the other players and was considering just calling. My immediate impression was that he was on a flush draw. One of the limpers in hand is a super tight preflop player, but is extremely weak-tight passive postflop. Other limper is LAG and will limp in here with JTo K6s etc.
Hero is MP3 with A2
2 Limps, Hero limps, Co limps, SB completes, BB checks.
Flop:
Ts3s2c
4 checks, Hero bets, 1 fold, SB raises, 3 folds, Hero calls.
Turn: 5d
SB bets, Hero calls.
River: 6d
SB bets, Hero calls."
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My math:
MBD,
You play this game often and you play with these guys often so I trust your read and thus this is a good and pretty much automatic play.
The flop bet and call are both standard. You think that SB is on a flush draw which justifies the other calls (although if he is on a flush draw there is a rasonable chance that he has a 4,5, or 6 in his hand as he is the SB and could have any 2.)
Four things that I would consider if I had the knowledge on the villain are
-the range of hands that he will complete the SB with here 4 limpers in the pot (I assume most hands,)
-how often would he check/raise here if he has a hand like K3s or T8 because he anticipates a bet and wants to face some players who have 2 overs with 2SB here. Personally a check/raise is the standard play that I would use here with a hand like T8. I will drop if there is a bet and a raise behind me but if someone in MP or LP bets I will almost always check/raise-bet-bet here unless two overs fall or I am reraised.
-how often will he will check/raise raise with a mid pp
-Lastly, how often will he check raise a LP bettor with a hand like AQ to clean up his outs
Because the villain "likes to semibluff alot and won't give up on a bluff on the river." You have to plan on calling $80 if you are going to call on the turn (unless a spade falls on the river, then this is an easy river fold.)
Given that he has the flush draw that you read him to have he will have the best hand at showdown 47% of the time (given he doesnt have the ace high flush draw or deuces and a draw, those times you obviously win more often.)
A tricky situation occurs when the A or 2 falls on the turn or river. In order to call a bet if one of those cards fell you would have to be less than 72% confident of your read on the turn (1-80/280) and less than 87.5% confident on the river (1-40/320.) Because if your read is always correct this is an easy play to make then the question of weather you should fold the turn or call down is simply a math problem where there is a certain degree of confidence that you need to have in your read in order to make this a profitable play.
The way that you wrote your post and the range of hands that the villain might have lead me to the thought that you are very confident in your read here, say that you would believe 4 out of 5 times he will turn over a flush draw. If this is the case you should fold if the A or 2 comes on the turn but not the river (although it is close)
Assuming that you will not pay him whenever his flush falls there is obviously a lot of value here in going call-call if the board comes running reds.
I am assuming that your flop call is automatic so there is $200 in the pot on the turn.
Assuming that your read is correct and the villain is on a flush draw you will win $280 ~52% of the time and if you were to hypothetically put in $80 before the turn card was flipped and turned the cards up this is a play that obviously you would make even if there was no money in the pot. In addition, you are going to be paid off when your opponent misses but will not pay him off when he hits.
(Tf : Turned flush)
8/45 (17.77%) of the time a spade will turn and you will fold.
17.77% of the time you will fold the turn
=($0) * 17.77 = $ 0 EV
(Rfa : Rivered flush)
6/44 (13.63% ) of the time a spade (that is not the A or 2 ) will river and you will fold
13.63% of the time you will fold to a on the river
= -$40*.1363 = -$5.45 EV
(Rfb : Rivered A or 2)
2/44 (4.54% ) of the time the A or 2 will fall on the river and you will call.
Assuming that your read is correct 80% of the time
=.2*280-.8*80=-$8 * .0454 = ( -$0.36 ) -- I guess I got carried away... didn't need to factor this one in :-/
64.06% of the time two non spade cards will fall and you will go call-call (1 - Tf - Rfa - Rfb.)
---71.88% you will win $280 ( +201.26)
---22.12% you will lose $80 ( -17.70)
=+183.56 ; * .6406 = $117.58 EV
... Calling here with the intention of folding to a spade thus has an EV of +$111.77 if he has the flush draw.
If I were to continue I would look at the range of hands that he would check raise with (Flush draw, two big cards, mid pair, small pair on the board) and try to determine the probability that he indeed has a flush draw. If he has the flush draw better than
(111.77*x - 80(1-x) > 0; 111.77x-80+80x =0; x(111.77+80)=80; x = .4171 )
41.71% of the time here then this is a profitable play. Given your description of the player it seemed that you were significantly more confident than that making this play automatic.
I guess what my calculations point out is that MBD's ability to fold to a spade earns him an additional $5.81 here in a hand that already commands a call-call. Please feel free to point out any conceptual errors in my math
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Please check my math reasoning here. Thanks for your help.
-Steve
This is a hand that was posted in Mid/High HE. I responded by examining the math on the call. The play in this hand is automatic IMO, I am just wondering if my math is good.
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The hand:
"20/40 TStone
SB in hand is semi-decent, thinking LAG. He likes to semibluff alot and won't give up on a bluff on the river. When he grabbed his chips after the flop, he looked around at the other players and was considering just calling. My immediate impression was that he was on a flush draw. One of the limpers in hand is a super tight preflop player, but is extremely weak-tight passive postflop. Other limper is LAG and will limp in here with JTo K6s etc.
Hero is MP3 with A2
2 Limps, Hero limps, Co limps, SB completes, BB checks.
Flop:
Ts3s2c
4 checks, Hero bets, 1 fold, SB raises, 3 folds, Hero calls.
Turn: 5d
SB bets, Hero calls.
River: 6d
SB bets, Hero calls."
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My math:
MBD,
You play this game often and you play with these guys often so I trust your read and thus this is a good and pretty much automatic play.
The flop bet and call are both standard. You think that SB is on a flush draw which justifies the other calls (although if he is on a flush draw there is a rasonable chance that he has a 4,5, or 6 in his hand as he is the SB and could have any 2.)
Four things that I would consider if I had the knowledge on the villain are
-the range of hands that he will complete the SB with here 4 limpers in the pot (I assume most hands,)
-how often would he check/raise here if he has a hand like K3s or T8 because he anticipates a bet and wants to face some players who have 2 overs with 2SB here. Personally a check/raise is the standard play that I would use here with a hand like T8. I will drop if there is a bet and a raise behind me but if someone in MP or LP bets I will almost always check/raise-bet-bet here unless two overs fall or I am reraised.
-how often will he will check/raise raise with a mid pp
-Lastly, how often will he check raise a LP bettor with a hand like AQ to clean up his outs
Because the villain "likes to semibluff alot and won't give up on a bluff on the river." You have to plan on calling $80 if you are going to call on the turn (unless a spade falls on the river, then this is an easy river fold.)
Given that he has the flush draw that you read him to have he will have the best hand at showdown 47% of the time (given he doesnt have the ace high flush draw or deuces and a draw, those times you obviously win more often.)
A tricky situation occurs when the A or 2 falls on the turn or river. In order to call a bet if one of those cards fell you would have to be less than 72% confident of your read on the turn (1-80/280) and less than 87.5% confident on the river (1-40/320.) Because if your read is always correct this is an easy play to make then the question of weather you should fold the turn or call down is simply a math problem where there is a certain degree of confidence that you need to have in your read in order to make this a profitable play.
The way that you wrote your post and the range of hands that the villain might have lead me to the thought that you are very confident in your read here, say that you would believe 4 out of 5 times he will turn over a flush draw. If this is the case you should fold if the A or 2 comes on the turn but not the river (although it is close)
Assuming that you will not pay him whenever his flush falls there is obviously a lot of value here in going call-call if the board comes running reds.
I am assuming that your flop call is automatic so there is $200 in the pot on the turn.
Assuming that your read is correct and the villain is on a flush draw you will win $280 ~52% of the time and if you were to hypothetically put in $80 before the turn card was flipped and turned the cards up this is a play that obviously you would make even if there was no money in the pot. In addition, you are going to be paid off when your opponent misses but will not pay him off when he hits.
(Tf : Turned flush)
8/45 (17.77%) of the time a spade will turn and you will fold.
17.77% of the time you will fold the turn
=($0) * 17.77 = $ 0 EV
(Rfa : Rivered flush)
6/44 (13.63% ) of the time a spade (that is not the A or 2 ) will river and you will fold
13.63% of the time you will fold to a on the river
= -$40*.1363 = -$5.45 EV
(Rfb : Rivered A or 2)
2/44 (4.54% ) of the time the A or 2 will fall on the river and you will call.
Assuming that your read is correct 80% of the time
=.2*280-.8*80=-$8 * .0454 = ( -$0.36 ) -- I guess I got carried away... didn't need to factor this one in :-/
64.06% of the time two non spade cards will fall and you will go call-call (1 - Tf - Rfa - Rfb.)
---71.88% you will win $280 ( +201.26)
---22.12% you will lose $80 ( -17.70)
=+183.56 ; * .6406 = $117.58 EV
... Calling here with the intention of folding to a spade thus has an EV of +$111.77 if he has the flush draw.
If I were to continue I would look at the range of hands that he would check raise with (Flush draw, two big cards, mid pair, small pair on the board) and try to determine the probability that he indeed has a flush draw. If he has the flush draw better than
(111.77*x - 80(1-x) > 0; 111.77x-80+80x =0; x(111.77+80)=80; x = .4171 )
41.71% of the time here then this is a profitable play. Given your description of the player it seemed that you were significantly more confident than that making this play automatic.
I guess what my calculations point out is that MBD's ability to fold to a spade earns him an additional $5.81 here in a hand that already commands a call-call. Please feel free to point out any conceptual errors in my math
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Please check my math reasoning here. Thanks for your help.
-Steve