Jason Giambi - fantasy baseball gamble?

[nolanfan34]

Spring training is almost here, time for some baseball talk.

Here's the background. I'm in a 20 team MLB universe keeper league. This year we each protected 12 players, and 7 minor leaguers. My 12 keepers were Bagwell, Ray Durham, Juan Uribe, Eric Chavez, Pat Burrell, Vernon Wells, Craig Wilson, Aaron Rowand (who I just swapped for Dan Meyer, SP, Oak), Ben Sheets, Adam Eaton, Odalis Perez, and Bronson Arroyo.

I also have the #1 pick in the upcoming draft. I have the #1 pick in the first round only, then I slot back to #5 for the rest of the draft.

So, is Giambi worth a potential gamble? The other top players who weren't protected include Shawn Green, Brad Penny, Jaret Wright and Moises Alou.

Or is this a scenario where I should minimize my risk and take a safer pick (although you'll note none of those guys are sure things).

I'm looking to trade Bagwell away, which is why I would be interested in a 1B, since as everyone knows, the Astros suck big time donkey balls.

[Popinjay]

Your keepers suck. I'd avoid Giambi, he hasn't proven that he can play well w/o steroids, too risky.

[tbach24]

Whats the scoring system?

[tbach24]

yeah his keepers other than durham, perez and sheets do suck. but those three are wicked nasty.

edit- didn't see that it was odalis and not oliver.

[nolanfan34]

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Whats the scoring system?

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It's a weekly head-to-head points based system, but generally the player values fall in line pretty well with traditional 5x5 scoring.

And before anyone else points out that my keepers suck, let me remind you that it's a 20 team league, not some piddling 10 team "every team is an all-star team" type of league. I also am only entering my 3rd season in the league, after building this team from scratch AFTER the rest of the league had protected its keepers.

[tbach24]

Well that may be a problem. In my fantasy league most people in it use ESPN's roto stuff. However, I calculate the PPG of the top 20 of each position, 50 for OF and SP and 30 for RP. If your league counts stuff like K's and BB's, then you should probably re-adjust your thinking. Because a guy like Giambi who wasn't very good in my league even was he was great in MLB, was very overvalued. I think he maxed out at like 3.5 ppg and a guy like Pujols got 4.4 last year.

Edit- if your scoring league is even close to mine, Moises Alou is your only option. He was 3.5 last year and now with the protection of Bonds, watch out. That guy is nasty.

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
Well that may be a problem. In my fantasy league most people in it use ESPN's roto stuff. However, I calculate the PPG of the top 20 of each position, 50 for OF and SP and 30 for RP. If your league counts stuff like K's and BB's, then you should probably re-adjust your thinking. Because a guy like Giambi who wasn't very good in my league even was he was great in MLB, was very overvalued. I think he maxed out at like 3.5 ppg and a guy like Pujols got 4.4 last year.

Edit- if your scoring league is even close to mine, Moises Alou is your only option. He was 3.5 last year and now with the protection of Bonds, watch out. That guy is nasty.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Shawn Green is the guy here, though I'd want a full list to see if someone young is somehow availible. It's akeeper, and alou is ooooooooooooooold

[tbach24]

Shawn Green, while one of my favorite real life players, is awful. OPS of .811. 114 strikeouts. The worst hitting team in baseball. And he's pretty old too. This will be his 13th year. Avoid this guy at all costs.

[nolanfan34]

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I think Shawn Green is the guy here, though I'd want a full list to see if someone young is somehow availible. It's akeeper, and alou is ooooooooooooooold

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If someone young is a talent at all, then they were likely kept by someone. Or they're on someone's minor league squad.

My minor leaguers FWIW, Alexis Rios (moves up this year of course), Andy Marte, Chuck Tiffany, J.J. Hardy, Cole Hamels (knucklehead), Jesse Crain, Guillermo Quiroz.

[bugstud]

you'll have to move crain up too...but he's a stud.

I really am not pleased with your options here...I just like green as the best trade bait option

[PassiveCaller]

Green is the safest bet.. while Giambi will probably out hit Green if he has a healthy year but I think that's a pretty large if. They both had similiar improve rates in pecota around 57% and similiar projected production even though Giambi was projected for less at bats (due to his his health risks)

Green is in a hitters park more. Alou is going to a death trap of a stadium for hitters and Wright I wouldn't want to touch with a ten foot pole.

but as with other posters I don't like any of them very much!

[nolanfan34]

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I really am not pleased with your options here...I just like green as the best trade bait option

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Yeah, this is why I'm trying hard to swap away the #1 pick. Isn't it amazing that someone who was a 1st-2nd rounder two years ago is now barely worth of a first round pick in a league where 240 players are already protected? The mighty can fall very quick in baseball.

[Algasm]

Do you know if anyone else in your league values Giambi? There's gotta be some insane yankees fan in your league that will overvalue him. Green seems weak and Alou can't hit a home run outside of Wrigley field.

[nolanfan34]

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Do you know if anyone else in your league values Giambi?

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Unfortunately, most of the owners are M's fans, or from the NW, so there's not a lot of Yankees love there. If anything Yankees players usually are somewhat depressed in value, because of the hatred. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[Algasm]

20 M's fans eh. I guess Bucky isn't available then. Any A's fans up there with lingering Giambi love? Probably not. I guess you can go with Alou. It is a 20 team league, even if he only hits 20 bombs he's probably a decent pick.

[BWebb]

I like Alou. SBC is a right-handed hitters park and batting behind Durham, Visquel, Snow and Bonds there will be a million people on base when he bats. If he can stay healthy, he should have some monster RBI numbers.