To poker pros: what will you do if internet poker dries up ?

[Bubu]

Idle point for discussion:

Internet pros, what will you do if the games become significantly harder in the future ? What is your back up plan ?

My thoughts would be to:

- dedicate some time each week to practice my live game. Unfortunately this is not possible for all of you as there may not be enough card clubs around.
Personally, I don't know if this is feasible. I am good at detecting betting patterns online, but I'm a dud when it comes to reading people (as opposed to helmuth - I can not look into anyone's soul).

- save a lot. You need a much bigger roll to play live profitably (to earn $200/hr like some multitablers you need to play in the 200/400 range).

- invest wisely. maybe start a new business. This is part of the "save a lot". This is the pie in the sky solution.

-get a job. The problem is that I don't think poker is teaching you any easily transferable/marketable skills. What do you do with the gap in your resume ?

[RollaJ]

Go back to playing roulette

[mushi]

I wolud say pray so that the Asian market opens ASAP. Maybe you have a chinese friend or something even from Taiwan that can well I dont know convince them to start playing so it will never dry out.

On a more serious note, I am not a Pro so I have no clue but I have a feeling youre going to do fine

mushi /images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[lucas9000]

fwiw, i think legal constraints would pose a more realistic threat to online poker than would a general improvement in the skills of players.

[URMeowed]

[ QUOTE ]
what will you do if the games become significantly harder in the future ? What is your back up plan ?

[/ QUOTE ]

The games will never become significantly harder. They are too many rich donks in the world. Even with this site and all the books in the world, the games will only get better.

People seem to forget that poker was quite profitable before online poker and especially in the early days in 2000 and 2001.

This game is inherently difficult to play your A game a high percentage of the time. Plus, and this is probably the number one reason why poker will remain profitable forever, is the fact that there is a fine line between running bad and playing bad.

You can win while playing bad and you lose a lot playing well. It can be extremely difficult to tell which is which, even for the experienced great players.

As for my back up plan, I have been fortunate to have been a live game player long before I was an online player. Plus I also live in Vegas. The very rare times I have gone to play at the Bellagio, I have been pleasantly surprised at how even worse they play than online.

In closing, people have been posting for years about the possible demise of online poker. Whether it be from a bill in the Senate or the inconceivable growth online or funding of poker accounts, people have listed numerous ways for a possible collapse. While this was a possibility three years or so ago, I feel poker has gotten too big and too mainstream to be stopped now.

Meow.

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
In closing, people have been posting for years about the possible demise of online poker. Whether it be from a bill in the Senate or the inconceivable growth online or funding of poker accounts, people have listed numerous ways for a possible collapse. While this was a possibility three years or so ago, I feel poker has gotten too big and too mainstream to be stopped now.

Meow.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would tend to agree with your end statement here. Which is why I disagree with your earlier points. I believe that it’s only a matter of time before the games online become legal. There’s simply to much money, to much exposure, and getting to be to many big players for it not to be legit. Party Poker becoming public was huge (to bad it wasn’t a US company) Anyway I know there is a movement to create a “National Poker Association” and that will help even further as there will be a collective voice to lobby the legislature.

So anyway, when those things happen, I think we’ll see a new influx of players. It will be the players who were hesitant to play before because it was illegal. Hard to say just how big of an impact that will be, but I do believe it will be significant.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[RainDog]

I've planned a few options:

1. Head to L.A. (much better table action than Vegas)

2. Open up a bar if'n I've saved enough.

3. Go back to college if'n I've saved enough (and probably teach English).

[mcozzy1]

Multitabling, PT, gameview, etc. are tools of the online poker player. The growing number of online pros and these technologies will eventually making the pickings pretty slim. Technology and overfishing hurt the fishing industry. It's only a matter of time before it happens in online poker.

The OP is right. You should have a backup plan.

Here's a blurb from an article on overfishing:

1.1. Overfishing and Fisheries Collapse

For the first time in this century, world marine fish catches are declining. The downward trend in marine productivity stands in stark contrast to the remarkable growth in world catches during most of this century -- from about 3 million tons in 1900 to a high of 86 million tons in 1989, when harvests peaked. To fisheries experts, recent declines are a warning that current levels of exploitation have exceeded the productive limits of many of the world's marine ecosystems. 1 A 1990 U.N. survey of world fisheries confirmed that view, classifying nearly every commercial species it surveyed as fully exploited, over-exploited, or depleted.

Then, in 1992, the unimaginable happened: after being fished without interruption for almost 500 years, one of the world's most productive fisheries, the Canadian Grand Banks cod fishery of Newfoundland and Labrador, was closed. A resource that once seemed inexhaustible, and whose abundance was legendary, has been fished to the verge of commercial extinction and remains closed today. The immediate impact has thrown 40,000 people out of work in the fishing communities of Canada's maritime provinces, at a cost to the Canadian public of C$2 billion in unemployment assistance and retraining programs. The long-term costs of social dislocation, lost biological diversity, and potential ecosystem collapse have yet to be assessed.

The story of the Grand Banks cod fishery is only the most spectacular recent example of a phenomenon seen in other commercial fisheries across the North Atlantic, the North Pacific and Bering Sea, and the west coast of Africa, where four decades of historically unprecedented exploitation have been conducted by the industrial fishing fleets of Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Japan. Today, about 70% of the world's marine fish stocks are considered heavily exploited, over-exploited, depleted or slowly recovering, and nine of the world's seventeen major fishing grounds are in serious decline. Most are in the developed countries of the Northern Hemisphere, where these fleets have operated the longest

[ThePinkBunny]

Still around, eh meow. Never trust a cat, especially one that plays poker.

Question for ya. How come all the locals act like you're the devil incarnate if you don't want to do an even split deal when you're ahead on the final table in a tournament?

This happened to me at the Orleans, Sahara, and the Mirage.

[URMeowed]

[ QUOTE ]
The growing number of online pros and these technologies will eventually making the pickings pretty slim. Technology and overfishing hurt the fishing industry. It's only a matter of time before it happens in online poker.


[/ QUOTE ]

The analogy of poker fish and real fish is incorrect. Whereas real fish must reproduce to continue survival, poker fish only need to reproduce money. Unless money gets put on the endangered list, there will always be poker fish. Also, not to be too blunt, but most of these new online "pros" can't play a stitch. Only reason they are winning and surviving is the rest of the players suck. Remember, one man's poker pro is another cat's Pounce.

Meow.

[URMeowed]

[ QUOTE ]
How come all the locals act like you're the devil incarnate if you don't want to do an even split deal when you're ahead on the final table in a tournament?


[/ QUOTE ]

If you lived off social security, you would fight for every extra penny too.

Meow.

[Ralle]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe that it’s only a matter of time before the games online become legal.

[/ QUOTE ]
But surely it's not illegal now?

[bholdr]

if anything does it'll be bots, IMHO, of course.

[Oblomov]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I believe that it’s only a matter of time before the games online become legal.

[/ QUOTE ]
But surely it's not illegal now?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is.

[D.H.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I believe that it’s only a matter of time before the games online become legal.

[/ QUOTE ]
But surely it's not illegal now?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are discussions of whether or not it's legal in various states in the U.S. Dont worry though, in Sweden the law is very clear. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Playing is not illegal. There are a lot of restrictions on the arrangement of games, but never the playing.

[URMeowed]

Cats have a better chance to kill online poker than bots.

Meow.

[Bubu]

[/ QUOTE ]

The analogy of poker fish and real fish is incorrect. Whereas real fish must reproduce to continue survival, poker fish only need to reproduce money. Unless money gets put on the endangered list, there will always be poker fish. Also, not to be too blunt, but most of these new online "pros" can't play a stitch. Only reason they are winning and surviving is the rest of the players suck. Remember, one man's poker pro is another cat's Pounce.

Meow.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's my fear ! I know poker will never die - its been around for way too long. What I fear is that it will not be profitable enough. I am not such a good player. If the schools dried up I think I would become someone's cat-toy. I try to make an effort to play harder games in order to practice, but at some point raw talent might become the determing factor. The thing with this internet boom is that many "pro's" seem to be assuming long term $100/hr to $200/hr winrates, while I think history has shown that in the BM world only a handful of people can actually perform at that level.

I guess what I really need to know is how hard can online games get to be ? You have played for a long time in the mid limits. Can you tell me how the games compare ? I play the 30 game at stars from time to time (the practice part of the above paragraph - I'm not good at it), so maybe we could use that as a reference. From previous posts I hear that you played the 20 game at Paradise pre-poker boom (circa 2000 ?) How has it changed ? How have BM games changed ? Unfortunately I only play live during the WSOP and my yearly Vegas pilgrimage (as a groupie not a player) so I don'ta hev much experience.

Thanks

[touchfaith]

I'd go back to man whore'n

[Greg J]

I think the Asian market opening up to online poker would be AWESOME for us. I'm glad you brought this up.

Also, if online poker were unambigiously legal in the US it would really help keep the fish tank nice and stocked. More commercials, less hurdles to jump through (the average would be fish does not know about Neteller).

[URMeowed]

Back in the day, the games were unbelievably good cause most of the players back then were very inexperienced. There was such a fear and uncertainty surrounding online poker in the early days, it kept the live game pros away. Also, the player base was so much smaller so you only had to get a read on a handful of players.

Since the poker explosion, the player base has grown tremendously. However, along with more fish, the pros started coming in droves.

I think one of THE most interesting phenomenon are all the kids playing now. And I'm talking about specifically the ones from the Magic the Gathering backgrounds and the scandanavians. I would venture to say that many of them, if not all of them, wouldn't be playing poker today if online poker didn't exist.

The B&M games have benefited greatly from the boom. Now all the home game experts are making their way to the card rooms and they may be even worse than what you would see in an online game.

Here's a perfect example as relayed from my friend who deals at the Bellagio. The game is 4/8 limit holdem. Action up to the river is irrelevant. So on the river, this one guy bets and now this lady announces "All in" and shoves in her rack!!! I am not joking. So after my friend kindly lets her know that this is a limit game and she can only raise to 8, she goes "well, I saw them do it on TV". LOL. Granted, this has probably not happened at the 15/30 or 30/60 game but rest assured, they play just as bad there too.

Meow.

[Bubu]

[ QUOTE ]

Here's a perfect example as relayed from my friend who deals at the Bellagio. The game is 4/8 limit holdem. Action up to the river is irrelevant. So on the river, this one guy bets and now this lady announces "All in" and shoves in her rack!!! I am not joking. So after my friend kindly lets her know that this is a limit game and she can only raise to 8, she goes "well, I saw them do it on TV". LOL. Granted, this has probably not happened at the 15/30 or 30/60 game but rest assured, they play just as bad there too.


[/ QUOTE ]

lol. I haven't seen that. Granted playing live you do see some crazy stuff. miss vegas.

Magic kids ? Is that meant to be good for the game ? Granted, I've only met about six magic players turned poker players. They were all very very good. Luckily they play in the bigger games and leave me alone. Scandinavian players are pretty wild I think - another force to be reckoned with. Somehow I haven't met as many of them. I've seen some crazy action in the PL omaha online games though. Huge action.

[mrjim]

Using the fishery rational, roulette and other casino games would have "dried up" years ago, but people keep playing. What you must realize is that the fish don't think of poker the way we do. They are just gambling for fun in most cases and are willing to pay to do so.

[Bubu]

Wait, you are saying that online the games have always been good. Pre-poker boom there were less pro's than now. Now, with the incredible poker growth there are more fish. I was under the impression that the games have just gotten better.

[URMeowed]

[ QUOTE ]
Magic kids ? Is that meant to be good for the game ?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, most are definitely not good for the game...except for table chat. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[URMeowed]

They did get better but the games have always been good online.

Meow.

[Greg J]

[ QUOTE ]

The analogy of poker fish and real fish is incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]
Excactly. Fish don't die when we catch them. They chalk it up to bad luck and "suckouts" like the one from that "idiot" (TAG) who raised his flush draw on the flop, got a free card and rivered his flush to beat his top pair with A/crap offsuit. They will deposit more and keep loosing. So goes the circle of life.

[Doc]

I don't mean to hijack this discussion so please forgive me if I do.

I used to be one of the Magic Kids. I grew up, got a real job and real responsibilities. I played Magic like hell yet never was able to win anything significant, mostly because once I had the game figured out, the game would change with new printed cards. Also I didn't have the large chunks of time necessary to play in a large number of Magic tournaments.

I didn't look at poker seriously until I saw Dave Williams won a significant amount at the WSOP. Dave was a mid level magic pro until he was banned from sanctioned play for a year for possibly cheating.

To finally get to my point, these kids who have been playing magic semi-seriously will transition to poker as I did. If they give the game some study, much of their magic knowledge will transfer over, so they as a general class will not be fish.

In short, boys play magic, men play poker.

Doc

[r3vbr]

Wtf? Magic players are NOTHING compared to Broodwar players. All broodwar players are good at poker. Pokerstars recently made an invitational Freeroll tournament for EPT Monte Carlo and all the top ex-Broodwar players who now play poker were invited. Also, gamers in general play excelent poker, just look at Lakerman and Tillerman and the kind of money they are making. And it's consistent sustainable income not some large MTT win like Dave Williams, where the variance is huge.

[AncientPC]

I played M:TG and Broodwars, does that make me the next Danny Negreneau?

[cokehead]

[ QUOTE ]
There are discussions of whether or not it's legal in various states in the U.S.

[/ QUOTE ]

wagering over the internet is illegal by federal law in the US. for the same reason someone outside of nevada can't just call vegas to bet on sports (wagering over the phone or by the internet is the same under the law). its just not enforced because of the practical problems of doing so.

[Ralle]

Wow, in that case it's amazing that online poker has become so big in the US. Let's hope they legalize it (duh...) for an even bigger player base.

[Shoe]

Poker might be in trouble if the following statement ever becomes true:

It doesn't matter if you program the 9th best bot in the world, if the other 8 best bots play at the same table(s) as you.

[OrangeHeat]

[ QUOTE ]
wagering over the internet is illegal by federal law in the US.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. The wire act does not explicitly ban wagering over the internet. Over the phone - yes.

Orange

[moondogg]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
wagering over the internet is illegal by federal law in the US.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. The wire act does not explicitly ban wagering over the internet. Over the phone - yes.

Orange

[/ QUOTE ]

Cubswin (of course) referred to some caselaw here last week that said that the wire act applied specically to sports betting instead of wagers in general, and that pretty much all electronic communication is covered, not just phone line (e.g. at the time the law was designed to cover telegraph as well as phone).

Also, I remember hearing somewhere that it did not apply to international wagers because the wording required that both the source and the destination of the wager had to be a US state (so that the legality of the wager in both places could be determined according to state law). Not sure if that argument would actually hold water though.

[ActionBob]

Can I assume this is the same meowhead I must have spend hundreds of hours with way back when in the early days of Paradise Poker?

-ActionBob

[URMeowed]

How many frickin' poker playing cats do you think there are? =^._.^=

Meow.