Lets asumme the cashout curse is true...

Ok let us assume the cashout curse is true. Assume that the poker sites rig the results for a given player if they cashout. Now realize, there are many many cashouts going on every day. So that would mean the game is rigged for multiple players often at the same table to lose. IF this were the case I ask several questions

A= If there are often several players at a table rigged to lose, doesnt that make it more likely that someone who has never cashed out will be a winner? If you are telling me there are very few people who have bought in, lost all their money and never cashed out, you are nuts. In fact, if the cashout curse were true, assuming reasonably uninsane play, ANYONE who didnt cash out would be almost guarenteed a winner.

B (the important one)= Why in god's name would you play internet poker JV if you believed the site controlled the destiny of several players at any given table at any given tim? If the site is rigging it for certain players to lose then that means the entire game is rigged no? How could you rig a game for certain players to lose but say that the game integrity overall is not rigged?

C= Did i make any incorrect assumptions here?

Earlier someone made the point that if you won 50 coin tosses in a row, you would not be "due to lose the next 50". No of course not, but at some point u will make up and lose 50 and regress to the mean as expected, which in this case is even money.....not all "cashout curses" happen the SECOND after u cash out. Some even continue winning for a long while. Its simply a case of the player cutting their bankroll to the point where it cant withstand a sizable downswing (which are common in looser internet games)

Ashok,


I have tried logic with CC and JV. Hope you have better luck than I did. They both confuse random events with true probability attached with events containing some variance due to skill. As long as they cannot discern the difference they are doomed to believe in the cashout curse. Careful or they will quote non-applicable probability theory in conjunstion with the rule of independent trials to you as well.


Net Kook Numero UNO

"...but at some point u will make up and lose 50 and regress to the mean as expected, which in this case is even money..."


This is where you have it wrong. From the 51st coin toss to an infinite number of coin tosses your expectation is even money. The first 50 is already in the bank.


Tom D

I DO NOT believe in the cash out curse...just a few weird things happened that could be explained by coincidence.

But lets assume it is real for a moment...I guess the site crooked enough to do this would also pass money to house players...so nobody would win huge amounts even if they never cashed out. In other words everybodys winnings would be controlled.

tom is correct, please read my post which analyses after the event

My word. I love reading all the conspiracy theory that is slung day after day. Many of the posts are extremely well conceived, and convincing. I almost start to believe 'em. I think that the majority of these theorists are more knowledgeable than the individuals who have actually developed the disparate gaming software. Have you ever met some of these guys? Developers? What a strange breed.


All I am saying is that the development that would have to go into to supporting 90% of these outrageous claims is beyond the scope of these guys’ capabilities.


Not to mention, you think Paradise, or any of these others, are willing to risk the gravy train, that is owning one of these establishments, on shotty card dealings and the like?


Just my opinion.

Over an infinite amount of time, you will be at the mean, whether or not you count those first 50 tosses.

And the point is not, after a big upswing you are going to have a big downswing everytime. Many people experience an almost constant steady upswing (with of course ups and downs but of minimal variance) and of course these people never complain of the cashout curse. Those that do possibly: A= play a high Standard deviation style B= are susceptible to tilt C= Are not properly bankrolled for their choosen limit.

aye thats my exact point crazy.....people who do believe in the cashout curse need to stop playing online poker if they were to follow through on their logic to the obvious conclusions.

no you wont, you will be at the mean +50 tosses,

even though over an infinite time is a bit vague

and in % terms you will be struggling to notice them.

over the next 1 million tosses, half will be heads and half tails, you will have 50 toss lead.

the next trial has no memory.


Exception to this rule would be early 1980s computers , but thats a seperate issue

I can't speak for JV but I feel the answer to B is pretty obvious. Because he's winning. That's why I keep crawling back despite how shady the whole thing seems. He, in fact, said this in one of his posts, but I understand it's hard to read a computer monitor from all the way up on that high horse.


Corrupt /= unbeatable.

was that high horse comment directed at me?


and you are right corrupt != unbeatable


but corrupt for some players at the table no matter how few or many = corrupt for all