two incredible streaks that defy odds

I have two incredible, and as of 5 minutes ago, still live streaks that defy explanation. These are longshot odds, and i just wish that instead of negative longshot odds, i wil enjoy the same kind of longshot odds on the positive side some day.


Here it is:


i have lost with AK or AKs the last 19 straight times. And it does not matter whether its a full table, headsup or shorthanded.


and in addition:


The last 14 times i have had pocket Q's or K's, an Ace flopped. 14!!! No exagerration...i lost most of these hands, but still managed to win some of them.


I swear i am not making this up or exagerrating.


What are the odds?? Anybody else ever experience such a streak?? I'd like to know


Another little live streak i have on side i noticed is last 4 times i had pocket A's, the flop brought a pair

I recommend you begin folding any AK preflop, if for no other reason than to end your incredible streak. As far as a pair flopping, that happens pretty often. Far more often than you shoud get pocket Aces. Now for your pocket cowboys dilemma, that is why Aces are called King killers.


I have a bad beat of my own for you: Last two times I had pocket Aces it was capped preflop. Flop comes KK blank, all Hell breaks loose, bet, raise, raise and capped. When the dust settles 2 players had AK preflop and I was drawing nearly dead. If only my Aces had been suited I may have had an out!


Net Kook Numero UNO

For the big slick problem...assume on average your supposed to win 25% of pots you enter:


odds of not winning 19 times straight is


0.75^19 = 0.0042 = 0.4%.

thanks,


so the one streak alone should be something around .4%, however, this is AK, a prime hand, and you should expect to win more often than an average playable hand, and second, keep in mind this also was partialy played at shorthanded games, where the win ratio should be way higher than 25%, so i figure .1 or .2 % is more likely.


Now couple that with the other streak, and i figure its combined more around .2 X .4 = .08 %.


so 8 in 10000, maybe slightly lower......geeeeshb

What are the odds to win big in a lottery? 1 in 10,000,000? But some people still manage to do it. Surely rigged!

I once saw three sensible posts on here in a row

by different authors.

Surely an example of collusion?

Here is one of my streaks -

dealt aces to me 12 times in a row in less than 1.5 hours.


Lost with 11 of them.


-MJ

"dealt aces to me 12 times in a row in less than 1.5 hours.


Lost with 11 of them. "


12 hands in a row took 1.5 hours??


must have been truepoker, right?


don't change my level please david !! it was a JOKE.. i swear to god, just a JOKE!!!

/images/frown.gif

Didn't some guy in the east win the lottery twice?


Amazing... /images/smile.gif I'd be happy with one win!


- Tony

Well, I tried finding an article on the guy who won the lotto twice, and instead came on this scary one about lottery addiction. Some guy won the lotto and spent all his first year winnings, plus an additional debt of $20k, on additional lotto tickets!:


http://www.boston.com/globe/specialreports/1997/feb/lottery/tuesday.htm


And this one about how desperate people are about lotto that they'd do anything to keep sales coming, letting an accused rapist keep selling tickets:


http://www.boston.com/globe/specialreports/1997/feb/lottery/sunday.htm


Anyways, I've always thought the lottery was just like gambling. It's just basically state sponsored gambling. And a tax on the stupid. Anyways, still can't find the article on the guy who won the lotto twice... (me keeps searching)... well, found this:


http://markpilarski.com/column22.html


So a total of 8 people as of this article has won the lottery twice! Saw this article, which calculated that the odds of someone winning the lottery twice is 1 in 30 during a four month period, due to the fact that people don't just buy one ticket:


http://skepdic.com/lawofnumbers.html


Anyways, interesting stuff... - Tony

a friend of mine had 12 consecutive AK not hit a pair or better on the flop. I'm always skeptical when I hear people toss around numbers/complaign about bad luck (no offense) but he's pretty reliable for things like this and his indignation seemed appropriate (and entertaining).