Marginal A9o push?

[SGS]

I am in a party 30+3 SNG. I am cureently 3 of 4 w/ 1600, blinds of 100/200. Button and SB have me barely covered, BB has ~1400. I pick up A,9o and push. This seems to be marginal, or maybe it's an easy fold. Thoughts? Thanks in advance.

SGS

[curtains]

I think it's easy allin.

[eastbay]

Assuming some calling ranges for your opponents, as well as an ICM model for tournament equity, it seems like this is at best a borderline push. If big stack is at all loose, this model predicts a loss of equity by pushing here (bottom left, $EV Fold vs $EV Push):

http://rwa.homelinux.net/poker/a9o-loose.PNG

Only if all players were playing extremely tight, would this push tend to move towards better equity than you have now:

http://rwa.homelinux.net/poker/a9o-tight.PNG

eastbay

[johnnybeef]

i dont like pushing unless the table is aggro, i prefer a raise of about 600 at this point

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming some calling ranges for your opponents, as well as an ICM model for tournament equity, it seems like this is at best a borderline push. If big stack is at all loose, this model predicts a loss of equity by pushing here (bottom left, $EV Fold vs $EV Push):

http://rwa.homelinux.net/poker/a9o-loose.PNG

Only if all players were playing extremely tight, would this push tend to move towards better equity than you have now:

http://rwa.homelinux.net/poker/a9o-tight.PNG

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

what is that thing above and where do i get one?????

[SGS]

There's no way I'm putting almost half of my stack in when I will then be forced to call a re-raise. If I am going to have to call a re-raise I would rather just put it all in myself.

SGS

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

what is that thing above and where do i get one?????

[/ QUOTE ]

It is a program I am writing for analyzing these kinds of SnG situations. It is not quite ready for release yet, but stay tuned.

eastbay

[The Yugoslavian]

I'd imagine this is the killer app Eastbay very recently alluded to in another post.

I've inquired about just such an app several times in several different threads convinced someone already had one -- but most likely in bastardized non-user friendly form. I wouldn't be surprised if Bozeman has/had one and I'm certainly not surprised Eastbay has screenshots of such a program.

Yugoslav

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

what is that thing above and where do i get one?????

[/ QUOTE ]

It is a program I am writing for analyzing these kinds of SnG situations. It is not quite ready for release yet, but stay tuned.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks ready to me Easty. I'm from the eastbay so hopefully that moves me to the front of your order line, /images/graemlins/wink.gif /images/graemlins/wink.gif /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

Yugoslav

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
when I will then be forced to call a re-raise

[/ QUOTE ]

if you were going to get it all in anyways, what difference does it make? by raising 3x the bb you can get away if someone calls and then bets into you on the flop, otherwise plan on pushing on the flop. at this stage of a tourney, you are not going to get many people off of a better hand by raising all in especially when everyone is holding relatively even stacks. what do you think?

[SGS]

I just don't like the idea of putting almost half of my stack in pre-flop and then possibly letting go of the hand? That just doesn't seem like a good strat.

SGS

[GimmeDaWatch]

I think this is really marginal and I would probably fold, or maybe be a big puss with a min-raise if I thought it would work. There are times you just need to go with a decent hand youre dealt, but in this particular scenario you have a big enough stack to be patient for a couple more rounds. You're not in good steal position, and I hate moving all-in when Im pretty sure only a better hand will call me and Im not even that short-stacked. If say, the blinds were 2/400 and you had 1200 ok you just gotta go with it and hope for the best, but here I think its better to be patient.

[rachelwxm]

Jesus, this is VB project right? It is amazing!

Questions:
1. Does it using ICM or simple chipEV?
2. Do you treat the situation that more than one guy call?

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Jesus, this is VB project right? It is amazing!

[/ QUOTE ]

C++. But thanks!

[ QUOTE ]

Questions:
1. Does it using ICM or simple chipEV?


[/ QUOTE ]

ICM.

[ QUOTE ]

2. Do you treat the situation that more than one guy call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not yet. That's high on the todo list, though.

eastbay

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I am in a party 30+3 SNG. I am cureently 3 of 4 w/ 1600, blinds of 100/200. Button and SB have me barely covered, BB has ~1400. I pick up A,9o and push. This seems to be marginal, or maybe it's an easy fold. Thoughts? Thanks in advance

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm trying to reconstruct this hand so I can see it.

(Blinds 100/200)
Hero UTG 1600
Button 2500
SB 2500
BB 1400

I agree with the others about folding. A lot of times weak tight is the best play. Things that I think about when faced with this dilemma are "if I fold, I am giving others here a chance to battle it out, putting me safely into the money." Your stack is large enough to withstand another 6 hands without too much pain, and look for a better position to push, not necessarily a better hand.

More thoughts, you do have very good folding equity against all the other stacks. If my stack numbers are correct, I disagree with the range of calling hands Eastbay has put into his pokerbot machine calculator. I too play the $33s, and IMO, at the bubble, all four of these stacks are only calling with 77+ and AJ+. (Although for my play style, these are too loose for my standards.)

The more I think about it, I'm probably 50/50 on this. If I knew more, that would change my decision.

How is that for decisiveness?

PS: I mean pokerbot machine calculator with the utmost of respect.

[rachelwxm]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Jesus, this is VB project right? It is amazing!

[/ QUOTE ]

C++. But thanks!


[/ QUOTE ]

Then it must be .NET thing, right? I am still using VC6.0 and don't know how to create a GUI like this.

[ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]

2. Do you treat the situation that more than one guy call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not yet. That's high on the todo list, though.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

I always wonder how is that change the picture but that would be certainly not easy since while the first caller could have anything decent, the second caller almost always has TOP 5. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Jesus, this is VB project right? It is amazing!

[/ QUOTE ]

C++. But thanks!


[/ QUOTE ]

Then it must be .NET thing, right? I am still using VC6.0 and don't know how to create a GUI like this.


[/ QUOTE ]

The GUI toolkit is wxWidgets.

[ QUOTE ]

I always wonder how is that change the picture but that would be certainly not easy since while the first caller could have anything decent, the second caller almost always has TOP 5. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Or be pot committed in the blinds.

The 3-way showdown probabilities based on the preflop-equivalent hands are a project in and of itself.

eastbay

[rachelwxm]

[ QUOTE ]

Or be pot committed in the blinds.


[/ QUOTE ]

the range should be thrown to garbage can now. Pot commit is different question on its own. Let's say you are second short stack on button.
Hero (button) 5bb
sb 10bb
bb 2bb
UTG 10bb

you pick up K9o, easy push?

[willie]

i do this, and very likely win it uncontested, or beat someone without an ace high

rarely enough you run into a better ace....

pushing is my standard play.

[Mr_J]

I notice you gave BB 4100 chips and not 1400 /images/graemlins/wink.gif

This is a push for me.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I notice you gave BB 4100 chips and not 1400 /images/graemlins/wink.gif

This is a push for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Figured it must be a typo. Somebody's got to have the other half of the chips in this tournament. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

eastbay

[Mr_J]

Not a typo, it's a $33 so there's 8k chips (he's given us 7k). Just innaccurate about the stack sizes (it'd be nice to know how the other 1k eas distributed...this is probally stack sizes after blinds are posted, and the larger stacks have the rest).