Another from the same 20/40 game

[na4bart]

I open raise UTG with AQo, all fold to button (dead average player) who 3 bets. I call. Two to the flop of 3 unconnected rags. Check, call. A king hits the turn and I lead out planning to fold to a raise and worry about the river when it arrives if just called. Standard or dumb?

[Manzanita]

na4bart,

I don't think that your play here is going to work (although I don't fault you for trying -- the pot is pretty big). The problem is that the average player who 3-bets preflop has a decent hand and just won't be able to lay it down, even if he's convinced that you just outdrew him.

I'm curious as to what you'll do if your opponent just calls and a brick comes on the river. I think that I would probably just give it up myself.

-- Manzanita

[Brom]

I have tried this play a few times myself, all at lower limits (5/10 & 10/20). Although it sometimes worked there against the right opponents, I still don't really like it. I have never tried it in a 20/40 game as the opponents I play against would probably never let it fly there.

The major problem with it is not having a plan for the future. If he just calls your bet then what? Do you try again on the river?

The only better hands you are getting to fold here are pocket pairs. Some low ones hit a set and obviously aren't folding. The high pocket pairs are played different depending on the player. A passive player will probably call you down because of the pot size (maybe forcing you to lose 2 bets if you try to bluff the river again). An aggressive player will probably raise you here and you already said you'd fold to a raise.

The normal (or somewhat normal) 3 bet hands are usually pocket pairs, AK, AQ, and maybe KQ(s) and AJ(s) depending on the player. You aren't beating many of these hands and you are out of position.

Finally, let's say you bet the turn and are called. Now what on the river? If you bet and are called you are almost surely beat. If you check, most opponents would realize what is going on and will bet pretty much anything. Can you really call down there hoping to be against AJ?

It may seem too weak, but I'd check and hope for a free river here. You opponent has too much on you.

[TStoneMBD]

just check fold the turn. most dead average players in live games cant fold their hand after a king hits unless you already have some sort of a mind game going with him, but if that is the case then he is probably above average.

[na4bart]

Yep, that also was the plan. BTW, the player in question folded the turn. Woo hoo!

[na4bart]

Again, another one of my ugly plays that just happened to work -- this time. Standard or dumb? The consensus has concluded that I was dumb and results aside, I agree. Lesson learned though and I will be saving many a bet in the future. Thanks guys.