Bad run question (300) tourns

[Vetstadium]

I am sticking it out but over last 300 tourns (party $33's ITM 33% ROI 2.3%) Brutal. Anybody experience bad runs like this. Guess it could be worse could be losing money but that seems like a high number of tourns for such a poor ROI. Just curious to see some of the higher number of bad run streaks say over 250 etc. Thanks

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I am sticking it out but over last 300 tourns (party $33's ITM 33% ROI 2.3%) Brutal. Anybody experience bad runs like this. Guess it could be worse could be losing money but that seems like a high number of tourns for such a poor ROI. Just curious to see some of the higher number of bad run streaks say over 250 etc. Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I just had the worst run of my life. I split variance with another player, and together we had logged close to 2000 $33 SNGs with an ROI of 26% (4-8 tabling).

We've played 1000 SNGs since Jan. 14th, and we both did poorly, though I did much worse.

I started this last 500 SNG set with a 174-SNG negative ROI run. (record for me).

Over my first 400 I had an ROI of 2.6%. (Never before had ROI less than 20% over more than 200 SNGs)

I dropped 40 buy-ins at one point. (Prior record, 24 buy-ins)

Within the 500 SNG set, there are 3 separate periods of 100 SNGs with a negative ROI.

Fortunately, I did relatively well over my last 70 SNGs and ended the 500 SNG set with a total profit of close to 2K and an ROI of 12% and a 90% confidence of being a winning player (ROI > 0).

OK, so what's up? Here are the possibilities:

1. I am not very good.
2. I am running very badly for a long time
3. The games are getting tougher
4. There's a bigger difference between 8 tabling all of the time and playing 4-8 tables than I realized.

Obviously, I had to address #1 first. I am constantly trying to make sure that I don't suck, but I took a harder look than normal over this last month. By reviewing HHs myself and having other really good players review my HHs, it doesn't look like a suck that badly. I also have a 14%+ first place percentage, which is pretty much the same as it has always been. Overall, I rate the chances of my poor performance being due primarily to my sucky play at around 10%. Just in case that's the problem, I have a plan to revise the most suspect component of my current strategy.

#2? Well, I hope so. There seems to be at least a little evidence that this could explain it. There was a 3 day period last week where I lost with pocket aces or kings at least 4 consecutive times within a 16-game set while not winning a single time with those hands. Then last night it happened 6 consecutive times and I still managed a small profit for the evening. Also, looking at hand data I had several runs of 50+ SNGs where my "win % if flop seen" was under 25%. It's kind of weird to see only 14% of flops, wind up heads up in over 90% of showdowns, and win only a quarter of the pots. I don't know if you can suck that badly... maybe you can. Anyways, I didn't pay much attention to this possibility, even though it is the one I am rooting for the most in terms of explanation.

#3? I don't think so. It is what it is in terms of game toughness. I can't do anything about it anyways. I'm not playing another site because of volume and speed at party. I'm not moving down because I am already playing the lowest limit I can stand and have a 150+ buy-in bankroll. And I'm sure as hell not quitting.

So that leaves #4. Maybe always playing 8-tables on my piece of crap monitor with overlap and 2048x1536 resolution is hurting me more than I realize. I decided this is the most likely explanation, so I finally purchased 2 Dells and they get here on Friday. My partner did the same, and we are going to play another 1000 SNGs with optimal hardware and reassess.

I'll certainly let you know how things go over my next 500. When I first started playing SNGs, it was posts like this that helped me the most in terms of understanding what I was up against and what I could expect. So, I don't mind airing my dirty laundry here. Eventually I'll have some clean clothes to wear.

[1C5]

Good post. You will love the Dell monitors, they are amazing!!! /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[microbet]

Not that it is the cause, but how many tables do you play at a time? Have you increased it lately?

[Vetstadium]

Thanks for the post IrieGuy very good for me to read happens to others.

[rachelwxm]

I believe my ROI has negative correlation with how many people left at level5, that would be a interesting project.

[bball904]

I just got a 20" LCD monitor last month and it is the best purchase you can make. Mine's a Gateway though, so it's a little better (excuse the shameless plug, wife works at Gateway), but I'm sure the (hack, hack) XXXX's will work ok for you.

I just moved from 2 tabling to 4 tabling because of the improved resolution. I actually think I disagree with the talk on the forum that 4 tabling will reduce your ROI. I assumed it would, but I find that I'm more focused playing 4 at a time and make better decisions. I also think it is easier to play 4 at a time because the losing coin flip runs won't weigh on you as long like they do 2 tabling. My ROI has actually improved, but it's only over 400 or so SNG's to this point so it's not a given yet. I am 88.56% confident though that 4 tabling will not have a lowering effect on my ROI. I enjoy my laser enhanced vision too well to ever consider 2 monitors and 8 tabling though.

For the original question, I did have a -33 buy-in loss over 200 55's in December. My analysis was that the losing streak started with a bad run of losing key hands. Then I contributed to it with a less aggressive style from fear of losing all those hands. My stats show that I was blinded off time after time in those 200 tournies. Always assess if your play is contributing to the problem.