30/60 KJo

[Nate tha' Great]

I'm trying out the Pacific 30/60 game for kicks. This is a 6-max table.

I have KJo on the Button and raise one average-playing limper. A loosie calls in the SB and a toughish aggressive player calls in the BB. The BB recently saw me show down a river check-raise bluff with queen high.

The flop comes QQ8 with no flush draw. Everyone checks to me and I bet. Only the BB calls.

The turn is an 8. BB bets. Action?

[skp]

bb prolly doesn't have a Queen or an 8 but I doubt he folds to a raise given recent history.

I doubt that he bets an ace given that he would then be happy to go to showdown.

His most likely hand is JT or J9 or a hopeless bluff with something like 66 which has now been rendered worthless.

So, calling down might just be the way to go here.

[fnord_too]

My initial thought is to check and call the river because a raise from a toughish aggressive player who knows you can bluff does not necessarily mean you are beat, but puts you in a bad spot. There are 6BB in the pot by my count, so if the BB will bet any river when you check the turn, you are getting 7:1 to just call down. Betting is just setting yourself up to make an error here I think.

[steveyz]

the BB bet out on the turn. Nate has to decide whether to fold, raise, or call, not whether to bet or check.

[JAA]

As you probably noticed, this is kind of a tough spot to be in. The way I see it, there are two types of bets he could be making (not rocket science, I admit...but humor me)

1.)He is betting a hand he thinks is best, such as a q,8, or (more likely) A high. Toughish players may make a bet here with A high knowing that you would raise an average limper relatively liberally on the button and his hand may be good.
2.)He is bluffing outright or semi-bluffing (i.e. gutshot).

You definitely need to consider what type of hands he defend his BB with, knowing what he does about your play? You know that he knows that you can be tricky, so I could definitely see him betting into you with a hand he thinks is best, welcoming you to make a move at him. All that said, it is still a tough decision. In your position, I would have checked the turn against this guy and been ready to call a river bet if a blank hits.

My Conclusion: Although at certain times you will call him down and he will show you 66, I don't think it is profitable to call him down here with 6BB in the pot, especially since when a blank hits the river you will be inclined to call. Bleh.

Just my thoughts, in rambling form...

-Jags

[fnord_too]

[ QUOTE ]
the BB bet out on the turn. Nate has to decide whether to fold, raise, or call, not whether to bet or check.

[/ QUOTE ]

DOH!

That's a much tougher question. I think I fold here, because I don't like my other options, and thinking about it makes me dizzy.

[gaming_mouse]

I think he would make this bet w/ an A, but that's all it takes to beat you. And even if that's all he has, he is showing it down after what he's seen you do. You are calling down to 5 dirty outs, which you don't have the odds to do. I think you have to fold.

[ruan99]

Correct me if I am way off here (I am not a veteran my any means). I think calling down here is bad. I don't mind folding, but if I am going to conitinue with the hand I prefer raising. If I get reraised I fold. If he calls and checks river I check if unimproved. I am spending two bets either way so I might as well try to get him off the ace. If I am off please tell me where my thinking goes wrong.

[China Willy]

Fold. He thinks you're retarded and (unfortunately with your hand), you are. You raised and he called your bet on the end and he showed you an A or an 8.

-CW

[JihadOnTheRiver]

I agree with the raise, then folding/checking the river or reraise. I only play live, but when I'm 6-handed and given a choice where there is a valid argument either way, I almost always go for the more aggressive line. Reraise with a K high and potentially show down the winner, you're helping your image.

-Durka Durka

[mmcd]

A lot of players wouldn't raise with a Q there in the hopes of getting one more bet out of their opponent on the river (if their opponent has an A or a pocket pair b/t Q's and 8's. A raise here would be somewhat transparent and open you up to a bluff 3-bet.

I'd probably call the turn. Check-behind the river if checked to (or bet if he's at all capable of folding an A once he gets called on the turn, but many aren't) and maybe raise the river if bet into.

[fyodor]

The math of the situation is close to even. If he isn't bluffing or betting a Q or 8, but instead has the Ace, then you are getting 6:1 with 6 outs. Worth a call. Worth a call, worth a raise.

But this one is more read dependant. Why is he leading into a known bluff raiser with less than a made hand? He knows you are aggressive and thus likely to bet if he checks when he can then get in a checkraise. But if you were bluffing you are then likely to lay it down and he only gets the one bet. By leading and letting you raise he gets two.

If he thinks, you think, he's capable of thinking this, then he could be bluffing. Online it generally doesn't get that deep though, so I just believe him and muck.

[Nate tha' Great]

I raised and he folded.

At first I was feeling disappointed in my play, but a couple of things that I thought about while reading the replies:

- As eugene points out, I'm not sure that it's at all guaranteed that he's going to bet again on the river with a counterfeited three pair, or something otherwise hopeless, especially as he knows that I "have" to call the river once I call the turn.

- There are actually a few hands that I could get him to fold incorrectly. JT/J9/T9 are all quite possible and are drawing to 9, 9 and 12 outs respectively after considering chops when the board fills up on the river. Even the pocket underpair has 4 outs against me.

The combination of these things make me think that raising is more correct than it appeared at first glance.

[mmcd]

What percentage of the time would you raise a Q here against this particular opponent?

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
What percentage of the time would you raise a Q here against this particular opponent?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your speculation that I'd usually just call and raise the river is correct. I did have a little bit of a pounding table image at the time, though.

[mmcd]

The reason I asked is that a turn raise there just seems sort of out of place, not within the tempo of the hand, and might cause you to get looked up by any hand that beats (or maybe even ties) you or possibly even bluff 3-bet if the guy was feeling frisky. Given the way you described your image, I just don't see him betting into you on the turn and folding to a raise too often there. Was he capable of a bluff 3-bet on the turn?

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Was he capable of a bluff 3-bet on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

My impression at the time was that he wasn't. Good player but tending toward ABC.

[skp]

Bluff 3 betting when out of position takes stones.

While the ability to do so is most definitely not ABC poker, I am not sure that whatver it is necessarily constitutes an improvement from ABC poker.

In other words, if a guy never ever bluff 3 bet out of position, that would still not mean to me that he must be ABC. Some very good players can only pull off this move once in a blue moon. 3 bet semibluffing is something that every tough player uses a little more frequently but even that is pretty rare in the grand scheme of things.