Top 2 pair against a flush?!

[chopper77]

Ultimate Bet 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (8.70 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero ??????

MP1 is a good buddy of mine, 95% he's got a flush. Is the pot big enough to call the extra 2 bets?

[davelin]

If I'm counting correctly, you have odds to call for the boat assumiing reasonably that AA or QQ isn't out there.

[crownjules]

The pot odds you're given are ~8.5:1, if I did the math correctly. You've got 4 outs to the boat, so you need 10:1. The decision comes down to implied odds, and I think you would get at least 2 BBs from them if you do fill up.

I would call and see the river.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
If I'm counting correctly, you have odds to call for the boat assumiing reasonably that AA or QQ isn't out there.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's slim but I think the implied odds makes up for a call.

[Nick Royale]

But then again, couldn't this be a time where you could assume some of your outs are in the hands of your opponents making this slim call a laydown?

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot odds you're given are ~8.5:1, if I did the math correctly. You've got 4 outs to the boat, so you need 10:1. The decision comes down to implied odds, and I think you would get at least 2 BBs from them if you do fill up.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you had done your math correct you would have to get 4BB on the river when you hit (not 2). Fortunately you've not done the math correctly you get the odds ~9.5:1 making a call possible. (correct?)

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
MP1 is a good buddy of mine, 95% he's got a flush. Is the pot big enough to call the extra 2 bets?

[/ QUOTE ]
Your buddy suck? Really hope he's at least holding KQ/images/graemlins/spade.gif then.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
But then again, couldn't this be a time where you could assume some of your outs are in the hands of your opponents making this slim call a laydown?

[/ QUOTE ]

Although unlikely, the action looks to me that both players have flushes (?). That means just the Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif may be an out that is in someone's hand.

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The pot odds you're given are ~8.5:1, if I did the math correctly. You've got 4 outs to the boat, so you need 10:1. The decision comes down to implied odds, and I think you would get at least 2 BBs from them if you do fill up.

[/ QUOTE ]
If you had done your math correct you would have to get 4BB on the river when you hit (not 2). Fortunately you've not done the math correctly you get the odds ~9.5:1 making a call possible. (correct?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming MP1 calls the cap, Hero will get 2:18.7 on his call. He can certainly make up the BBs he needs on the river.

[Nick Royale]

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Although unlikely, the action looks to me that both players have flushes (?). That means just the Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif may be an out that is in someone's hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I agree. It smells like 2 flushes. But I would really like a read on this MP1.

[Nick Royale]

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Assuming MP1 calls the cap, Hero will get 2:18.7 on his call.

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Yup. And MP1 will call.

[ QUOTE ]
He can certainly make up the BBs he needs on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yup. But if Hero's buddy doesn't suck he's stitting on our Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Is MP1 passive enough to call QQ preflop? Or stupid enough to play AQ this way? I'm seeing monsters under the bed here but without a read making these slim calls could be risky. A bloody straight flush could be out. Or MP1 could be playing AA like the fish he might be. Enough with this paranoia, I'll call.

[crownjules]

[ QUOTE ]
If you had done your math correct you would have to get 4BB on the river when you hit (not 2). Fortunately you've not done the math correctly you get the odds ~9.5:1 making a call possible. (correct?)

[/ QUOTE ]

As of the moment OP posts, he currently has 17.7:2 (~8.5:1) odds of calling. He needs at least 10.5 to call.

In the case of implied odds, we'll assume MP1 will be calling the 1 bet at the end, making the pot 18.7BB. Two more BB give you 20.7, which is close enough to the 21 needed for your call. I would think you'd get more in actual fact.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
As of the moment OP posts, he currently has 17.7:2 (~8.5:1) odds of calling.

[/ QUOTE ]
17.7:2 is really more like ~9:1 than ~8.5:1. But you know MP1 a least will call and that makes it 9.35:1

[ QUOTE ]
In the case of implied odds, we'll assume MP1 will be calling the 1 bet at the end, making the pot 18.7BB. Two more BB give you 20.7, which is close enough to the 21 needed for your call. I would think you'd get more in actual fact.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, you got it right now, but in your first post you didn't assume MP1 would call (or did but didn't type it) which made that calculation wrong. But you seem to know your implied odds so I will stop nitpickin'.

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I would think you'd get more in actual fact.

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Agree.