An interesting hand at 2/4 [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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GrunchCan

02-09-2005, 04:04 PM

In this hand, UTG+2 is fairly loose and somewhat over-aggressive postflop. If he senses weakness where once there was strength, he'll attack it when his hand doesn't warrant it.

MP1 and the Button are both unknown to me.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
UTG+2 bets, MP1 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, Button calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

River: (12.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 12.75 BB

syphlix

02-09-2005, 04:06 PM

how come you didn't bet the river?

btspider

02-09-2005, 04:08 PM

i'd play all 3 postflop streets differently.

charlie_t_jr

02-09-2005, 04:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i'd play all 3 postflop streets differently.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me see....just call on flop, take the odds for the gutshot, over card outs are a bit dubious.

Check through on the turn, and bet the river.

GrunchCan

02-09-2005, 04:14 PM

Explain please.

davelin

02-09-2005, 04:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i'd play all 3 postflop streets differently.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd personally play the flop the same but the turn and river differently.

btspider

02-09-2005, 04:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Explain please.

[/ QUOTE ]

an overaggro player bet the flop. he'll 3-bet or stop-n-go far too often. peel a card off and don't commit yourself to this pot just yet. also, you can only clean up outs if button has paired his sidecard with an A or Q *and* folds to your raise. i can see the raise vs a more passive opponent.

edit: notice all gutshots and straight potential does not conflict with your hand. for example, if the Q gives someone a straight, they aren't folding for 2 bets.. or they would need an unlikely AK.

on the turn, after they all call, go for your free card. only one person has to check.. don't reopen the betting for the aggro player when you don't have the best hand. there is no value in the bet, and no folding equity.

value bet the river.. especially after everyone slowed down when you represented QQ+.

SeeWillie

02-09-2005, 04:21 PM

But with that read, UTG+2 is going to lead out the turn, no?

edit: if you call the flop. Which is probably my play.

car ramrod

02-09-2005, 04:49 PM

His read was that utg bets when theres weakness. I think the flop raise is ok. But I agree that since he got the free card on the turn, he should go ahead and take it.
If he doesn't raise the flop, utg would probably bet the turn and then we would be forced to call the turn for a big bet, right?
what do you think.

VBM

02-09-2005, 05:03 PM

Hi Grunch,

you've always struck me as a very rational & by-the-#'s player, so this is sort of an odd line to me too.

on the flop, is your raise intended for value? with a gutshot & 2 overs, if you believe pairing your overcards will win + the free card potential on a turn-miss + potentially buy the button, i guess i can understand it, but i still think it's awfully aggressive. I would personally discount my overcards a bit b/c of reverse domination potential from a hand like QT or A6s...

on the turn, given you've raised the flop and all have checked to you, i think i'd try for a free card here (who knows tho, since Button called 2 on the flop); the pot is such that i doubt with any sort of reasonable hand anyone will not lay down for 1 bet.

on the river, i value-bet.

i'm interested in the results here...

GrunchCan

02-09-2005, 05:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
if you believe pairing your overcards will win + the free card potential on a turn-miss + potentially buy the button

[/ QUOTE ]

That's it exactly.

I valued my hand at about 8 outs with the gutshot and the overs. I felt a raise here had an excellent chance to force the button out, giving him 1:6 to call. I really doubted that the button had proper odds to call, so it was worth a shot. My raise had no chance to fold the other 2 opponents, but even still, I could win a free card on the turn if I chose to take it.

At the time, the raise seemed obvious. Now looking back, it seems much closer than I originally thought, becasue of the odds I was offering Button. But I still come to the same conclusion. It's close, but a protection raise is called for here.

GrunchCan

02-09-2005, 05:24 PM

With the button failing to fold to my flop raise, my line starts to unravel. The other 2 players behaved as I had expected them to, indicating to me that my outs are not dead to them. But the button is a concern.

I still have a decent drawing hand, considering the sorts of hands button might be calling with (TPMK, medium PP, gutshot, pair+backdoor draw), so I will want to see the river. This is my main consideration right now. Maximizing my chances to win this pot means maximizing my chances to see the river card.

I don't want to bet, becasue my equity is reduced and I don't have the best hand right now. But suppose I check. What will happen then?

The button almost certianly has some kind of hand. He didn't call 2 cold with just a weak draw. If I check, he will bet nearly 100% of the time. In turn...

[ QUOTE ]
If he senses weakness where once there was strength, he'll attack it when his hand doesn't warrant it.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a high degree of probability that my aggro opponent will raise. First, he'll think (probably correctly) that he has button beat with what I'm guessing is TPMK. Second, he'll think that he might be able to force me out, since I flinched.

If button bets and UTG raises, I'll be faced with having to call 2 cold, and I don't want to do that. I'd have to fold.

So, my turn play revolved around this choice: pay 1 BB to see the river, or lose the whole pot.

Didn't seem like much of a choice to me. I had to be the turn.

GrunchCan

02-09-2005, 05:28 PM

I still wonder if I should have value bet the river. I imagine I should have, but I couldn't help but include a gutshot draw among the possible holdings for my 2 opponents other that UTG. If there were only 1 such opponent, I surely would have bet-called. But since there were 2, I clicked "check."

The results will follow later. I'd like discussion on my streets.

davelin

02-09-2005, 05:37 PM

There's nothing in this hand or your reads to heavily suggest that if you check, the turn action will go exactly the way you describe.

GrunchCan

02-09-2005, 05:55 PM

Do you think some other turn of events (no pun) is more likely?

davelin

02-09-2005, 05:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think some other turn of events (no pun) is more likely?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, I think there's a decent chance it'll get checked through. Even if the Button bets, you can easily call one closing the action. I wouldn't want to put more than 1 bet on the turn and betting increases the chances of that versus just checking.

GrunchCan

02-09-2005, 06:03 PM

What range of hands do you put the opponents on, especially the Button?

btspider

02-09-2005, 06:06 PM

i don't get it. what hand are you protecting yourself from on the flop?

button is likely not folding QT, QJ, AT, AJ.

that leaves only A6 and Q6. are these so common that you have to reopen the betting for an aggro opponent?

and gutshots? as i said, a Q only gives AK a gutshot straight. AK is unlikely. the other gutshot cards (8's and 9's) give you OESD's. button (no one else since they are already committed) hitting a gutshot (when he would have folded to a raise) and then you hitting one pair on the river is not likely enough to warrant reopening the betting.

and the given read really doesn't make a free card sound likely.

----------

car ramrod:
"His read was that utg bets when theres weakness."

that's an odd read first of all. but second, hero raised PF and has yet to act. no weakness has been shown. the overaggro read stands out much more in my mind. overaggro means a free card play will not succeed often enough. if cleaning up outs isn't too likely, the free card is in doubt, and we don't believe we have a value raise, then a simple call is fine. we also might get two bets in on the turn when we improve as a result.

davelin

02-09-2005, 06:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands do you put the opponents on, especially the Button?

[/ QUOTE ]

Button? Who knows, gutshot, OESD, pocket pair, pair? Certainly reasonable that he'll check it through.

LoaferGee12

02-09-2005, 06:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I don't want to bet, becasue my equity is reduced and I don't have the best hand right now. But suppose I check. What will happen then?

The button almost certianly has some kind of hand. He didn't call 2 cold with just a weak draw. If I check, he will bet nearly 100% of the time. In turn...

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you possibly say he will bet 100% of the time. He could easily have bottom pair, mid pair, pocket pair, OESD, as well as a weak draw. You have 0 reads on him how can you assume that he won't call 2 cold with a weak holding.

There is a high degree of probability that my aggro opponent will raise. First, he'll think (probably correctly) that he has button beat with what I'm guessing is TPMK. Second, he'll think that he might be able to force me out, since I flinched.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is there a high probability that he will raise the button. All he has done is bet the flop, called a bet, and checked the turn. His hand is clearly not that strong, and even if he sees that you are weak he will still be afraid of the button.

[Quote]
I valued my hand at about 8 outs with the gutshot and the overs.

So you hit 1 of you're outs on the river and you check?

LoaferGee12

02-09-2005, 06:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I don't want to bet, becasue my equity is reduced and I don't have the best hand right now. But suppose I check. What will happen then?

The button almost certianly has some kind of hand. He didn't call 2 cold with just a weak draw. If I check, he will bet nearly 100% of the time. In turn...

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you possibly say he will bet 100% of the time. He could easily have bottom or mid pair here, as well as a weak draw. You have 0 reads on him how can you assume that he won't call 2 cold with a weak draw.

[ QUOTE ]

There is a high degree of probability that my aggro opponent will raise. First, he'll think (probably correctly) that he has button beat with what I'm guessing is TPMK. Second, he'll think that he might be able to force me out, since I flinched.

[/ QUOTE ]

How is there a high probability that he will raise the button. All he has done is bet the flop, called a bet, and checked the turn. His hand is clearly not that strong, and even if he sees that you are weak he will still be afraid of the button.

[ QUOTE ]

I valued my hand at about 8 outs with the gutshot and the overs.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you hit 1 of you're outs on the river and you check?

Analysis:
Preflop: Fine
Flop: Questionable, I'd lean towards calling given what spider had to say.
Turn: Butchered
River: Butchered

GrunchCan

02-09-2005, 06:34 PM

Well, I found a lot of aspects about this hand interesting. I knew that my line was pretty much exactly the opposite of standard on every postflop street, but I was confident in my reasoning. I wasn't comfortable, but I was confident.

There's a lot of good advice in this thread that goes below the surface. I haven't digested everything yet, but it's all good discussion.

Here's the results of the hand:

[ QUOTE ]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
UTG+2 bets, MP1 calls, Hero raises, Button calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, Button calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

River: (12.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 12.75 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG+2 has Jh 9d (one pair, jacks).
MP1 has Th Ks (one pair, tens).
Hero has Qc Ad (one pair, queens).
Button has Jd Kd (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: Hero wins 12.75 BB. 

[/ QUOTE ]

davelin

02-09-2005, 06:39 PM

Why doesn't it show UTG's hand?

shadow29

02-09-2005, 06:50 PM

Wrong forum n00b. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Anyway, everyone else analyzed it goot.

GrunchCan

02-09-2005, 06:54 PM

Must be a converter error.

I fixed the results post manually.