Can I make this call after calculating outs?

[Tyler Durden]

Stars rebuy. Still far from the money.

200/400/a25. I have 12K, avg is about 17k.

MP (11k) opens the pot, he minraises. Cutoff (6k) coldcalls.
I call from the SB w/ 6/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. BB (3k) calls also.

4 way pot. t3400.

9/images/graemlins/spade.gif5/images/graemlins/spade.gif4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Checks around. Hmm. Weird.

Turn 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif. I fire out a bet. Just t1200. BB and PFR fold. Cutoff moves in for t3800 more.

Can I make this call, getting about 2.5 to 1?

Let's think about what his possible holdings are and how many outs I have against each. He just got moved to the table, so no read.

If I call and win this pot I'll have 19k, above avg, if I lose I'll be down to like 9k, and I don't mind playing a short stack at this stage of the tourney.

Thanks in advance.

[asofel]

why the pf call? implied odds? i'm curious if this is standard and i'm missing something, or what...

[Tyler Durden]

The stacks get really deep in the stars rebuy, I can make something pretty good with this hand sometimes and if I do I can win a good pot.

The call preflop has a lot to do with how comfortable the individual player is with making it. I was fine with it.

[asofel]

[ QUOTE ]
The stacks get really deep in the stars rebuy, I can make something pretty good with this hand sometimes and if I do I can win a good pot.

The call preflop has a lot to do with how comfortable the individual player is with making it. I was fine with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

cool. thx.

[Sam T.]

I think that you have to assume that you are behind at this point, but that he's unlikely to have anything bigger than a pair (probably an 8)

If he's got an 8 with nothing else going, twodimes says you are about a 4:1 dog.
If he's got the 8 and a couple of spades you become a huge dog.

Unless you think he's on a pure bluff or thinks his four is good, I don't see how you can call this.

[JARID]

Hi Tyler,

Against a single pair, most likely an 8 we have four sevens, two fives and three sixes.

We are a 4-1 dog here.

There is a chance you are out kicked, or up against a set, but that would have required some poor play on the villians part. I discount it, but it is still a consideration.

Your determination of how likely he is to be on a draw or running a bluff is the only thing that could turn this into a call. Absent that kind of info, I think I let it go.

What was your initial reaction?

Regards,
Jarid

[Absolution]

I'll give it a shot.

- First, let's give him 10% for nothing and you're ahead (probably at least 1 overcard to your 5s though).

- That's a scarey board, so I think anything made (except a straight) he'd try and thin the field. I'm going to discount all sets except 88, any strong spade draws like TJs, 67s, 78s, 34s.

From most likely to least:

- 88,77,66
- 67s or 78s (except spades)
- 85s/75s/65s and A8/K8s
- T8s, J8s, 98s
- Bluff/Something you dominate

I'll think about the odds. I'm sure there are many hands I'm missing.

[JARID]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to discount all sets except 88

[/ QUOTE ]

All things considered, don't you think 88 fires at his pot on the flop after being checked to?

Regards,
Jarid

[Absolution]

Ya I see that. Initially I was just going to discount all possible sets because of that (66,77,88). I think that's very player dependant.

Given that, there's just no way to make this call. 80% of the time or more you're behind here and don't have the odds to catch up with only 9 outs.

[TheBatphone]

[ QUOTE ]
The call preflop has a lot to do with how comfortable the individual player is with making it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, I'd have to be pretty comfortable to coldcall a raise w/ a garbage hand when I'm well below the avg stack size, but then again I'm no tournament expert. Anyone else like this call?

[Tyler Durden]

It's deep stack poker. Let's not discuss the preflop call, please?

[lil_o]

Lets evaluate your outs:
-You need 1.5 fives for trips (count five of spades as half out since it makes flush)
-You need 3.5 sevens for the straight (count seven of spades as half out since it makes flush)
-You need 1.25 sixes for two pair (count these as half outs since they add to the straight or flush)

That gives you a very conservative 6.25 outs to make your hand. Going by the 4/2 rule, that leaves you ~12% chance to make your hand by the river.

Even if he only has a pair I can't see making this call being profitable.

note: feel free to correct me if my math is flawed /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Wes ManTooth]

With few outs, I dont think it is a good idea to risk approximately 25% of your stack in this situation.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
It's deep stack poker. Let's not discuss the preflop call, please?

[/ QUOTE ]

you're a clown.

this is not "deep stacked poker" you're calling 650 preflop, with only 12k in chips. you started the hand with what, 40 bets? I don't know why you think that that is deep, but i'm pretty sure it isn't.

specifically, at the end of your post you say that if you were down to 9k, you would be "short stacked." any time that i can lose 7 or 8 bbs and consider myself short, i have trouble calling it "deep stacked."

for that reason, I personally like a fold preflop. you're going to be out of position, and have put in ~5% of your stack with something that really isn't even a good speculative hand, preflop.

hm, i'm also just re-looking at this hand, and you say you start with 12k, and that you put in 800 preflop, and that on the end, you're thinking about putting in 5k total on the river, and losing would put you at 9k. all these things don't make sense together.

anyway, so at the end you're looking at whether to call 3.8k into a ~10k pot, or so, getting roughly 2.5 to 1 you say, and what do you want to say your outs are? the 4 7s, you probably want to list all the 6s and 5s left too, which is what, 4+3+2=9 outs. that's basically assuming he has you beat, and that if you hit anything, you win, and that none of your cards are gone. so, 9/46. ~1/5.

well, no, you can't call, given just this. since 3800 > (.2)(10k) by a pretty substantial margin.

i don't believe that this situation is an "inflection point, or whatever, where this gambling really makes that much sense.

eh,

citanul

results? i'm guessing you called and won.

[citanul]

I'd probably make the .5 outses that you have for the spades closer to .75, but I don't know how correct that is.

citanul

[citanul]

note: i didn't discount any outs or give the opponent any odds of being on a pure bluff, or of having a worse hand, or anything like that. if i weren't lazy, i would have. but i don't think your'e going to get the amount that i would think was necessary to make the call from those things, especially since one moves your outs up and one moves them down.

citanul

[MLG]

I think you are wrong in a couple of spots. The preflop call is a little loose, but not not nearly as bad as you make it out to be. I also think he started the hand with 14k not 12k. Also, counting outs is the wrong way to approach the turn decision. Before counting outs, you need to attempt to put the villain on a range of hands. Then, you need to calculate outs against each of those hands. You start by assuming that our hero is behind, and I'm not so sure that that assumption is warranted. There is a lot more that has to go into this river decision than you are putting out there. I think its a very close decision. A fold maybe right, but im not about to crucify Tyler without doing a lot of math first.

[Tyler Durden]

I decided to call and he showed A7/images/graemlins/heart.gif. He missed his nine outs and I was like "cool."


Discuss.

[citanul]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are wrong in a couple of spots. The preflop call is a little loose, but not not nearly as bad as you make it out to be. I also think he started the hand with 14k not 12k. Also, counting outs is the wrong way to approach the turn decision. Before counting outs, you need to attempt to put the villain on a range of hands. Then, you need to calculate outs against each of those hands. You start by assuming that our hero is behind, and I'm not so sure that that assumption is warranted. There is a lot more that has to go into this river decision than you are putting out there. I think its a very close decision. A fold maybe right, but im not about to crucify Tyler without doing a lot of math first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey MLG, I didn't mean to come off as crucifying him, I know Tyler medium well, and my "clown" comment and the like are just me messing around a bit.

I'm gonna stand by the preflop call as a little *too* loose, even though, as we both said, he started with 14k most likely.

As I said in my second post, I didn't put the guy on a range of hands, or give %ages or anything like that in my first post, but I know that that should be done. With some eyeballing and approximation, not showing the math here, I didn't think that the bluffing % that I would assign to the pusher was small enough to justify a call from Tyler.

So yeah, I don't mean to come off as crucifying or anything like that, and I understand that when the math comes out, I may even be wrong.

citanul

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
I decided to call and he showed A7/images/graemlins/heart.gif. He missed his nine outs and I was like "cool."


Discuss.

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't he only have 6 outs? 3 A's and 3 6's? The 3 7's make you a straight. Maybe I'm missing something...

[MLG]

yup, he's even further ahead than he thought.

[Tyler Durden]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I decided to call and he showed A7/images/graemlins/heart.gif. He missed his nine outs and I was like "cool."


Discuss.

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't he only have 6 outs? 3 A's and 3 6's? The 3 7's make you a straight. Maybe I'm missing something...

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I was in a rush when I posted that.

[Absolution]

Good work. I would have folded given the information you posted. Your reasoning?

[Tyler Durden]

He figures I made a weak bet, probably and won't be able to call. I had a good number of outs if he turned a pair of eights, plus the chance he was bluffing (at least 10%, as we all know thanks to Dan Harrington). I didn't see a hand he could have that had me in rough shape. I think that's all I've got for now but I'm willing to discuss the hand further if you like.

[citanul]

how few outs do you need to have before you count yourself in rough shape?

citanul

[partygirluk]

[ QUOTE ]
It's deep stack poker. Let's not discuss the preflop call, please?

[/ QUOTE ]

30BB (not to mention an ante) ??????

[Tyler Durden]

You only need outs if you're taking the worst of it. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Tyler Durden]

To have 30 BBs at this stage of the tourney is deep stack poker. The average stack was over 40 BBs. When the BB is 400 on Party the avg stack is nowhere near this amount. That's what happens in the rebuy.