THANK YOU, THANK YOU !!! and a question

[nrrd]

I want to express my thanks and gratitude to all of you on this forum who are willing to share their poker knowledge with a poker dummy like me. I have been playing the 5+1 and 10+2 SNG'S for about 6 months (at a net loss) while trying to learn a little about this complex game. Since I began reading the intelligent posts on this forum (I haven't posted any advise because I honestly don't know enough to offer any), my game is starting to improve. Recently, for no logical reason, I decided to give the Party Step Tournament a try. On my second $12 donation, I was able to advance to Step 5 without having to repeat any steps. Last night, I finally got the nerve to take the plunge into Step 5. On the very first hand (in the BB), I lost 1/4 of my stack with top two pair to a full house. Despite below average cards (only one pocket pair the entire tournamet), I was able to use some of the advise I've read on this forum to battle back to a second place ($2500) finish. THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU!!!
And now, my question. Assume that my skill level is average on Step 1 (top 2 advance), average on Step 2 (top 2 advance),below average on Step 3 (top 3 advance), well below average on Step 4 ( top 4 advance), and probable "dead money" on Step 5. What would you estimate the odds against my second place finish?
AGAIN I THANK YOU .

[Gigabet]

[ QUOTE ]
And now, my question. Assume that my skill level is average on Step 1 (top 2 advance), average on Step 2 (top 2 advance),below average on Step 3 (top 3 advance), well below average on Step 4 ( top 4 advance), and probable "dead money" on Step 5. What would you estimate the odds against my second place finish?


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have to estimate, I know it is exactly 100%.

[nrrd]

O.K., I understand your reply. I guess my question should be: If I entered another tourney, what would you estimate the odds against getting this lucky again? Thanks

[DBowling]

well if odds against are 100%, then odds for are 0%

[AtticusFinch]

Congrats on the big score. That must have been a real thrill.

-AF

[skipperbob]

Well, ur odds of advance from Step 1 are 20%, Step 2 = 20%, Step 3 = 33%, Step 4 = 40%, Win $$ at Step 5 = 40%...Therefore, chance of $$$ in Step 5 (skill = no factor)is .2(x).2(x).33(x).4(x).4 = .002% = 2 outa 1000...If you try 1000 Step 1's, you should get to $$$$ in Step 5 twice. Once in money, chances of finish are even, therefore once = 2nd or 1st...All of this disregards skill level, rebuys, and dropbacks

[skipperbob]

I do not consider myself anything other than an average skill player....I have made it to nine Step 5's...of the nine I have a 1st, 2nd, and 4th..3 5ths & 3 early outs...Actually think that the easiest step is #4...I'll bet that the sharks are destroying the Steps by buying in at Step 4, making 60% to 70% advance and 60% ITM at Step 5's

[skipperbob]

Obviously I respect anything that Gigabet has to say; however I don't quite by the idea that you have Zero chance of making the $$$ in Step 5

[nrrd]

thanks. i was indeed happy. my wife is even more excited... she gets some furniture out of the deal.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
thanks. i was indeed happy. my wife is even more excited... she gets some furniture out of the deal.

[/ QUOTE ]

What?! You mean it doesn't all go right back into your bankroll? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Congrats again.

[nrrd]

I agree that step 4 did seem the easiest. I just stayed out of the way and let the others knock each other out. thanks

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously I respect anything that Gigabet has to say; however I don't quite by the idea that you have Zero chance of making the $$$ in Step 5

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Gigabet is saying that the chance that he MADE 2nd is 100% because it's already done, he finished 2nd! At least that's what I think he's saying.

[ZebraAss]

He said that he is a 100% dog to get 2nd as is anyone else who tries from step 1(obviously not true). But to consider all the bad beats, dry cards, and suck outs it seems pretty hard for some one to get 2nd in a step 5. Out of all the people who buy into step 1 there are a few that make it to step 5...but cashing while playing with the big boys isnt easy especially if they have no idea how each player plays at the table

[AtticusFinch]

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but cashing while playing with the big boys isnt easy especially if they have no idea how each player plays at the table

[/ QUOTE ]

You could argue that this actually gives him an advantage over the regular step5 donators, though, because the big boys won't have a read on him, either. If there happen only to be two or three sharks in the step5 he ends up in, he could easily sneak past the others.

[ZebraAss]

Yes...but to be honest if you dont play there regularly you are going to lose way more then you win which isnt fun since you came from step 1. The difference between the regular donators and some one who climbed the steps are that they do not know how to sneak around the players. They just dont know how to play to be able to portray the immage that he/she has game. Unless he/she plays every hand perfectly...they are going to be suspicious. If he/she bets one chips more/less then he should they will question his or her play.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes...but to be honest if you dont play there regularly you are going to lose way more then you win which isnt fun since you came from step 1. The difference between the regular donators and some one who climbed the steps are that they do not know how to sneak around the players. They just dont know how to play to be able to portray the immage that he/she has game. Unless he/she plays every hand perfectly...they are going to be suspicious. If he/she bets one chips more/less then he should they will question his or her play.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, of course. I was just looking for the silver lining.