River Action HU w/TT unimproved [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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Vern

02-09-2005, 06:50 AM

Table is generally very good. UTG is a minor LAG, UTG+1 is a rock, UTG+2 to me are all fish or calling stations. SB is unknown and the BB is a fish.

BTN is slightly loose and aggressive, but not really loose aggressive. He waits until he has a strong holding and pushes it. Sometimes he over pushes medium holdings as well.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed)
Props to Bison for his converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
6 folds, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero calls.

 At higher levels I would have suspected he was raising thinking I was blind stealing, but at this level I figured he had a good holding.

Flop: (9.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB folds, Hero calls.

I figure there is only one hand, AK, that he three-bets pre-flop with that I am ahead of here but I have an OESD with the keyhole and I don't see any hand he has pre-flop with a ten, other than TT, that he three-bets with.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

 Same as on the flop, I doubt I am ahead but the OESD gives me odds to draw again.

River: (7.75 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero?

 I think calling getting 8.75:1 on my call is ok, but the only pre-flop three betting hand I put him on I am ahead of is AK and this would mean that he had bet all three streets with Ace high. All his other pre-flop three-bet holdings beat me.

Any comments on any part of the hand will be more than welcome. Thanks in advance.

Vern

Standard Disclaimer: I am by no means an expert at any of this.

jaxUp

02-09-2005, 07:07 AM

Given your read of the button, I think you should probably fold here. As you said you are really only beating AK, and I think that is the holding here less than 1 in 9 or 10 times. You were essentially drawing this hand, and missed it. Just try to pretend you had AT and let it go;)

dreddie26

02-09-2005, 07:22 AM

maybey it is an option to bet on the flop. If he raises you now he has an overpair and can check-call the turn and fold the river.

itsmesteve

02-09-2005, 11:15 AM

3 bet hands*
AA or KK 6 ways each - 12 hands you lose to
JJ or QQ 3 Ways each - 6 hands you lose to
AK 16 Ways - 16 hands to a Victory!
TT 1 Way to a push

18 times you lose one bet, 16 times you win 8.75. 1 time you win 4.375 assuming all these hands are likely.

I think this makes a call the right play unless you're 85% sure he wouldn't play AK like this.

It would also be nice to see if he'll bet unimproved AK all the way down if he doesn't hit aggresssion for future reference.

*all of this could be very wrong.

Vern

02-09-2005, 06:18 PM

I think the hands he three-bets from the button against one opponent with position include AQ and maybe AJ as well since he will want to get heads up with those hands pre-flop. I described him as somewhat loose and aggressive, likely to overplay medium hands so the AQ/AJ is really a possibility for him to three bet here. He might even do it with 99 or KQ, but I don't consider those likely enough to consider for odds here.

By my count 42 times I lose one bet, 16 times I win 8.75 but I think I need to reduce the 16 times I win because it requires him to bet unimproved AK three times against another pre-flop raiser.

Results, I called figuring roughly he was only likely to play AK this way about half the time, which left me with 42:8 odds or ~5:1 on an 8.75:1 call. He flipped over AKs and MHIG. I got to thinking about whether a flop bet would be better but I don't think so. With two broadway overcards, the pre-flop raiser and the BB behind me, I don't think I make money on a flop bet even with the OESD. Thanks for all the replies.

Vern

DMBFan23

02-09-2005, 06:24 PM

Vern,

how many outs do you give to a K on the flop?

itsmesteve

02-09-2005, 11:38 PM

once the big blind is gone, the kings have to be nearly full outs, no? unless villain is three betting AT you're straight is good.

edit- maybe one isn't full due to flush draw.

Vern

02-10-2005, 12:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Vern,

how many outs do you give to a K on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Direct answer: 3.5

Once it was heads up the kings cleaned right up. I seriously doubted that Btn would be three-betting with AT. First there are only two tens left. Second I think that is below his cutoff for three-betting so I valued the non-heart 8's and K's as 6 outs and valued the heart versions plus the two remaining tens as 1 out total. Even though I had a one card straight draw, the hands that made a better straight or straight draw, KT or AT were unlikely three-betting hands for him, although maybe ATs could be possible. Plus I had two of the tens so it was more unlikely that he was drawing to the same straight as me for the tie. All total, I figured on the flop and turn I was working with 7 outs if behind and might be ahead of an AK for about 1 or 2 outs worth as well so I had my odds around 4.5:1 on the flop/turn. If I bet or c/r'ed the flop/turn/river with just my tens, I allow the one hand that I beat, AK, to get away for less bets and I pay more to see a losing showdown vs any of the three-betting hands that hit the flop and would raise me.

Vern