What do you think of this play?

[Daliman]

I am having a disagreement with a friend about this hand. I would like to see what other have to say about the play of hero.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t280)
SB (t5040)
BB (t2530)
Hero (t2150)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t2150 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls t1750.

Flop: (t4500) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t4500) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t4500) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t4500

[AtticusFinch]

Read this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1678160&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;s b=5&amp;o=).

[Daliman]

A7h is not in the same realm as 88.

[spentrent]

what r u implying finch?

[skipperbob]

For me to comment on how you play a hand would be similar to the town-drunk/village idiot being asked to review this Sunday's sermon

[Michael C.]

[ QUOTE ]
For me to comment on how you play a hand would be similar to the town-drunk/village idiot being asked to review this Sunday's sermon

[/ QUOTE ]

But what if the sermon were on the evils of alcohol and the Rev. needed a technical advisor?

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
For me to comment on how you play a hand would be similar to the town-drunk/village idiot being asked to review this Sunday's sermon

[/ QUOTE ]

Who says I made the play?

[Phil Van Sexton]

I have an opinion. I like the push.

Small stack wont get the blinds for another 2 hands. Meanwhile, you'll have to post 600 out of your 2100. Unless you are the one to knock him out, you'll have 1500 left and an uphill battle to 1st.

He only has to win 1 hand to survive for another round. If he does that, you will be crippled while you wait.

[The Yugoslavian]

I think Dali's situation is significantly different. He's under the gun and his stack is smaller in relation to his main opponents.

I wish I knew the texture of the $215 games better b/c I'm not sure my opinion on this hand will be of any use.

I would imagine that in a $215 only very upper echelon hands of the BB will call you here. However, if you've been pushing a lot I can see the SB calling you with a decently large range of hands hoping to catch you stealing and taking a huge chip lead on the field.

Hmmmmm....I was thinking push but now I'm not so sure. I'd probably fold and wait until ITM to duke it out.

Yugoslav

[Gigabet]

I probably push here every time, however, the position of the stacks probably makes it slightly more profitable to fold. Put the short stack on the other side of the big stack, and you absolutely must push in this spot.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
I have an opinion. I like the push.

Small stack wont get the blinds for another 2 hands. Meanwhile, you'll have to post 600 out of your 2100. Unless you are the one to knock him out, you'll have 1500 left and an uphill battle to 1st.

He only has to win 1 hand to survive for another round. If he does that, you will be crippled while you wait.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok. Now I like pushing given the blind situation. If you don't push now with this hand 1st is very distant plus one double up by the small stack when he gets to the BB and now even 3rd isn't guaranteed.

I now like my first instinct here. Push baby push!

Yugoslav

[Roan]

Similar to the above post, I'm not willing to go broke with this hand. If anyone calls the all in you are at best a small favorite, and most a likely dog. I either raise to 3BB (if i think people will lay down their blinds) and fold if someone plays back at me, or most likely i just fold and wait for the small stack to bust.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
what r u implying finch?

[/ QUOTE ]

A7s and 88 are both hands one would normally push with here. The issue is there is a very short stack due to bust out imminently, so do you push with a good but not premier pushing hand or not? The two hands are not equivalent, but the thread discusses the general situation, not the specific hand. As far as that goes, you're in exactly the same boat, and all the same arguments apply. So read the other thread. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Michael C.]

I don't think they're the same at all. The most likely calling hand is Ax or a pair. With A7 you're a big dog to almost any caller. With 88 you're ahead of a lot of the hands that will call you here.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Dali's situation is significantly different. He's under the gun and his stack is smaller in relation to his main opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, good points, I didn't examine the two hands closely enough, but I reiterate that many of the same issues discussed in that thread are pertinent here. It may not resolve the issue, but it certainly adds to the discussion.

88 is a significantly better hand than A7o, I will agree. But the same question applies. Do you push and risk busting out on the bubble when a &lt;1bb stack is due to bust out this orbit?

[silversurfer]

I think it's crap, personally. A coin-flip against any overpair, and crushed by 7 other pairs?

Yes, people are waiting for the ss to bust, yahoo. But he will go broke soon enough...why risk it all on a hand that is so easily beaten?

Daliman, give us an update, btw...how are things going since your "plight of the Daliman" thread?

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
I have an opinion. I like the push.

Small stack wont get the blinds for another 2 hands. Meanwhile, you'll have to post 600 out of your 2100. Unless you are the one to knock him out, you'll have 1500 left and an uphill battle to 1st.

He only has to win 1 hand to survive for another round. If he does that, you will be crippled while you wait.

[/ QUOTE ]

For what it's worth, I like the push here, too. The BB at least is probably not looking for a fight for the same reasons you may be reluctant to push in the first place.

I never said the conclusion of the two threads would be the same /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Cheeseweasel]

Assume that you turn up your 88 and raise all-in.

BR = t2150
Blinds = t400/t200
Hand = 88
#_ahead = 3
#_limpers = 0

You will be called only by hands that are equal to or better than yours, 41 out of 1225 starting hands = .0335 = %_call

Your probability of winning given that you are called is = .227 = P|call

The probability that you will be called by one or more opponents is 1-((1-%_call)**(#_ahead)) = 1-((1-.0335)**3) = .101 = P|opponents

Fold_equity = (1-P|opponents)*blinds = (1-.101)*t600 = t539

All-in_equity = (P|opponents*P|call*(blinds+BR))-((P|opponents*(1-P|call)*BR) = (.101*.227*(t2150+t600))-(.101*(1-.227)*t2150) = -t105

Total_equity = fold_equity + all-in_equity = t539-t105 = -t434

EV = total_equity/BR = t434/t2150 = 20%

Back up the truck and start loading.

[AtticusFinch]

Where are you getting that 1225 starting hands number from?

[johnnybeef]

i cant answer unless i know a few things about the opponents or the hero. most likely i like folding considering that the button will be blinded out in two hands. however, if table images dictate that the hero needs to raise then id prefer a raise of about 1100, unless of course your opponents in the blinds are at a level of competence that they would realize that you are risking your entire payout on this hand therefor their read on you would almost certainly be aces or kings in which case its a hell of a move. my guess is that they probably aren't however so like i said i like a fold.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
I have an opinion. I like the push.

Small stack wont get the blinds for another 2 hands. Meanwhile, you'll have to post 600 out of your 2100. Unless you are the one to knock him out, you'll have 1500 left and an uphill battle to 1st.

He only has to win 1 hand to survive for another round. If he does that, you will be crippled while you wait.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree, lets examine why we are playing this SNG...TO MAKE $. I think many of you who are saying push are thinking that there is a bracelet involved here. There isn't. Your number 1 priority is to score in this situation. That being said, i am a BIG believer of being extremely aggressive at this point of the sng as this is when people are unwilling to call a raise with just about any hand. IMO you need to hit the brakes for a hand or two.

[USS Gut Shot]

I like your play.

Of course, I have the phobia that I will be knocked out of every tourn I ever play with 88.

[HoldingFolding]

I think it's important to remember the payout structure. 5-3-2 meaning an actual profitability ratio 4-2-1 (subtracting out the stack). If you are in a potential coin flip situation as a smaller stack with 3 or 4 players remaining and still plenty of FE I think going all in every time is easily EV+.

[Cheeseweasel]

50_C_2 starting hands that your opponents can have. In other words, all possible 2-card combinations from the remaining 50 cards = 1225 combinations.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
Your number 1 priority is to score in this situation. That being said, i am a BIG believer of being extremely aggressive at this point of the sng as this is when people are unwilling to call a raise with just about any hand. IMO you need to hit the brakes for a hand or two.


[/ QUOTE ]

You do realize, of course, that you just contradicted yourself 2 times in 3 sentences there, don't you?

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your number 1 priority is to score in this situation. That being said, i am a BIG believer of being extremely aggressive at this point of the sng as this is when people are unwilling to call a raise with just about any hand. IMO you need to hit the brakes for a hand or two.


[/ QUOTE ]

You do realize, of course, that you just contradicted yourself 2 times in 3 sentences there, don't you?

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry, i didnt proof read it, lets try again...i advocate very aggressive play in this stage of the sng, however folding here gives you the best possibility of making money which is why you are in the sng in the first place...better?

[stripsqueez]

i would always push

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[microbet]

Well you can't turn over your cards online and this analysis is about chip EV not $EV, right? There is a big difference here, no?

But, Hero has huge FE so a push can't be too bad. Wouldn't SB normally fold some of the PP's that beat you? And if the big stack calls you with Ax or something you are in a great position to be the chip leader.

[MagnoliasFM]

I've never played in a $215, but from the perspective of a low-limit SNG player, the first instinct here is an obvious push, not just because of folding equity, but because the hands that will call you are approximately any pair, any ace, and any two face cards, making you a slight favorite/coinflip over the range of calling hands. This means that the only way you can lose by pushing is by losing two coinflips (1. BB or SB having a calling hand, 2. losing the showdown). The other roughly 3/4ths of the time, you either double up or %30 up.

At the $215 level, you lose the possibility of getting called by a worse hand, so it's not as clear. Since no one's taken the "fold" side of the argument yet, I think it should be considered. The main argument for folding is that if you push you're risking your guaranteed 3rd when you don't really have to. Given the 5-3-2 structure, the best strategy is to aim for either first or third. By pushing you're risking 4th to get either 1st or 2nd. By folding you can establish 3rd and then aim for 1st. Still, it's a really close call.

[Irieguy]

This is a fold.

There are a couple of reasons why:

First, if you fold here there's a chance the button will make a mistake and call. If he does, the SB will likely call and there is a chance that he will bust 2 players if both blinds catch the flop and decide to play "who's johnson is bigger?" If the blinds don't tangle, you're likely to be down to 3 and you are not in bad shape with regard to folding equity.

Second, the SB is very likely to raise here if it's passed around to him. That's a prime set-up for "who's Johnson is bigger?" between the blinds, and you obviously love your position if you get 3 handed that way. You also like your folding equity a lot if the BB wins an all-in coup there.

If the hand is just passed around to the BB and you have to post next hand, there are a lot of interesting permutations with that hand as well, and you stand to fare pretty well by staying out of the way there also.

The balance of goodness in equity permutations is clearly in favor of folding in my book. I can't prove it.

I like to be the most aggressive player 3-handed... but the wisest 4-handed.

Irieguy

[JoeTable]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your number 1 priority is to score in this situation. That being said, i am a BIG believer of being extremely aggressive at this point of the sng as this is when people are unwilling to call a raise with just about any hand. IMO you need to hit the brakes for a hand or two.


[/ QUOTE ]

You do realize, of course, that you just contradicted yourself 2 times in 3 sentences there, don't you?

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry, i didnt proof read it, lets try again...i advocate very aggressive play in this stage of the sng, however folding here gives you the best possibility of making money which is why you are in the sng in the first place...better?

[/ QUOTE ]

So...be very aggresive in this situation, except you should fold hands like 88. Which hands should you push then?

[Daliman]

By the way, As little surprise to most, i AM the UTG 88 pusher. I was called by A9o and summarily went out 4th. I'd do it again too.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
So...be very aggresive in this situation, except you should fold hands like 88. Which hands should you push then?

[/ QUOTE ]


in never said situation...i said

[ QUOTE ]
i advocate very aggressive play in this stage of the sng,

[/ QUOTE ]

to answer your original question...not very many, probably jacks and above. i know its cliche, but lets look at this situation from a risk/reward standpoint...your reward is most likely going to be t600 which would bring you to a total of t2750. the less likely reward would be the chance to double up to t4300 and the possible chip lead going into the final 3 depending on who calls. The risk side of the equation is that you will come in 4th place. If you get called you figure to be a 55/45 favorite at best. Granted that you will not get called very often, but are you willing to risk going broke for an extra t600 in chips when if you fold you are almost certain to make the money?

[GimmeDaWatch]

Ive just started playing the Party sitngos alot but of course this sort of situation coes up alot, to one degree or another, and I actually think this specific one is pretty close, although I lean toward folding. On the other hand, you are the 2nd shortest stack, and if the 2 bigger stacks had shown themselves to be pretty careful at the bubble I may push here. I dont know the exact odds that one of them has a bigger pair, but its pretty remote, Id guess 20:1, and they REALLY dont wanna lose against you, especially the shorter of the 2 stacks, so are probably folding all overs but AK and AQ. And, the blinds you could pick up are not insignificant and if button gets lucky once or twice you could be deathly shortstacked by the time you lock up 3rd. So, I think its very close. A7s, by the way, I fold right away here.

[GimmeDaWatch]

[ QUOTE ]
Similar to the above post, I'm not willing to go broke with this hand. If anyone calls the all in you are at best a small favorite, and most a likely dog. I either raise to 3BB (if i think people will lay down their blinds) and fold if someone plays back at me, or most likely i just fold and wait for the small stack to bust.

[/ QUOTE ]

You cannot possibly raise to 1200 then fold. It is all-in or nothing.

[ChrisV]

Noooo freakin' way. I'm not touching eights with a barge pole here. I'd fold nines as well. Tens would give me pause for thought but I think they are a bit good to fold.

As Gigabet said though, if the big stack were crafty and in a position to defend the short stack, you have to put your head down and charge here. Here the short stack can't be defended and you ought to nail him eventually.

[GimmeDaWatch]

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, As little surprise to most, i AM the UTG 88 pusher. I was called by A9o and summarily went out 4th. I'd do it again too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which one called with A9o? I think thats a pretty bad call by the big stack, and a worse one by the 2nd stack.

[Daliman]

The BB called me. Yeah, it was horrendous.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, As little surprise to most, i AM the UTG 88 pusher. I was called by A9o and summarily went out 4th. I'd do it again too.

[/ QUOTE ]

what is your reasoning for pushing?

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
T
First, if you fold here there's a chance the button will make a mistake and call. If he does, the SB will likely call and there is a chance that he will bust 2 players if both blinds catch the flop and decide to play "who's johnson is bigger?"

[/ QUOTE ]

A very good point that I hadn't considered. Not sure it changes my decision, but now I have something to think about. Thanks Irie.

[e_fermat]

[ QUOTE ]
The BB called me. Yeah, it was horrendous.


[/ QUOTE ]

How can you say this was horrendous when he is in the BB and also has you covered? It's 1750 chips for him to call to win 2750, that's a significant overlay. Even if he loses, he still has a reasonable chance to slide into 3rd given shorty will be all-in in the BB in 2 hands. Of course, he would also have to have a good read of what you are pushing with but if he thinks you are aggressive and pushing top 40% or top 33% hands then it's an auto-call with A9 which is a top 15% hand. Conversely, if he thinks your pushing standards are tighter, say top 20% hands then this becomes a fold.

[Daliman]

Because #1, just on it's face, i'm going to steal the blinds alot here.
#2 I'm going to get credit for a big hand from anyone with a brain. Therefore, even more hands will fold, especially the in the BB.
#3 88 is a strong hand, and even when called, I have a good shot versus many hands that call decently well.
#4 I don't mind pushing solid +EV situations with high variance. The only time you should is if you are on a short BR. This is EASILY a solid +EV situation, as I believe someone quantified much better than I ever could earlier.
#5 I'm Daliman, dammit!

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
#5 I'm Daliman, dammit!

[/ QUOTE ]

hahahahahahahaha..hilarious! btw all good points...i failed to mention that i am currently rebuilding a br when discussing why i would fold.