Bad luck at SNGs or bad play?

[BoxyBrown]

I'm playing these 10+1 SNG's at Pacific(only because the tables are so soft... Pacific software drives me nuts) and I did ok last week (2nd place finishes for each of the 4 games). Now I'm 9 games in the hole! I'm new to SNGs and don't really know what kind of variance to expect, but at what point do I stop thinking that I'm on a downswing and start thinking that my play needs serious adjustment?

9 games may not seem like a big deal at all, but I feel like I've improved over the past month at least to the point where I should be able to make the top 3 50% of the time. Is this completely unrealistic?

[deathpotato]

Yes, making the top 3 50% of the time is unrealistic. 9-SnG OOTM streaks are, however, not very uncommon.

[spentrent]

50% ITM is excellent, not an "at least" type o' thing, IMHO.

Keep plugging away, see where you are at 50.

[BoxyBrown]

Both of you make sense, and I feel a lot better about it now. Thanks for that.

Any ideas on what a typical winrate for SNG players is? I searched through and wasn't really able to find any numbers. I imagine that's because it varies so greatly, but I'm curious about what I can expect as a winning player, so I know after several buy-ins whether I AM a winning player or not /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[spentrent]

You can't make any conclusions from a sub-100 sample. Post some hand histories if you're worried.

[IvyGrizzly]

Don't feel too bad. Through 109 SnGs my ROI was 33% and my ITM was ~43%, and I just went on a 7 buy-in downswing, and who knows maybe it will continue (just got a 2nd though). Sometimes it's greedy (slowplaying aces) plays or just unfortunate cards that do it for you, or a badly timed play. I lost to bigger sets 3 times, pocket 8s to j8o, TPTK jacks to queens that slowplayed before the flop (with 4 people in /images/graemlins/smile.gif), pocket jacks all-in in a 777 board and called by 67o that called a 3xbb raise PF OOP, a set versus two pair sharing on of my set that turned a boat, running two pairs... it's weird and it happens and it sucks, but people who are playing correctly should be making money in the long run.