AJs - Lets talk about checking this turn

[JoshuaD]

I'm intentionally leaving reads out, this is a theoretical question. I'm not asking for advice on this particular hand.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>

Bet seems like the "standard" move, but after thinking about it for a while, checking might be better against some opponents.

I'm still 4-tabling, and I don't wanna taint responses with my ideas, so let's talk about the pro's and cons of checking this turn. I'll weigh in in a bit. Feel free to talk about it against the multitude of different opponent types.

edit: Also, consider the situation if you had A/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

[Reef]

I really don't think you want a 4th daimond to come with AJs. I bet the turn

[KingOtter]

If UTG+2 hit his flush, his 'standard' line will be to check since you've been showing aggression, for a check/raise. Trapping you for 2 bets.

With a check on the turn you see a free river, to which you have 9 outs to a boat to beat the potential flush.

If he doesn't have the flush, he may not want to pass the river by and bet out. If he missed whatever draw he was on, or has an A, he'll bet on the river.

So with a check you get 2BBs when you're ahead (he'll call the raise unless he's completely handless), and costs you 1 BB when you're behind.

With the bet on the turn it'll cost you 3BBs if you're behind, to get 2BBs (maybe 1BB if he folds the river) if you're ahead.

Or something like that.

KO

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]
If UTG+2 hit his flush, his 'standard' line will be to check since you've been showing aggression, for a check/raise. Trapping you for 2 bets.

With a check on the turn you see a free river, to which you have 9 outs to a boat to beat the potential flush.

If he doesn't have the flush, he may not want to pass the river by and bet out. If he missed whatever draw he was on, or has an A, he'll bet on the river.

So with a check you get 2BBs when you're ahead (he'll call the raise unless he's completely handless), and costs you 1 BB when you're behind.

With the bet on the turn it'll cost you 3BBs if you're behind, to get 2BBs (maybe 1BB if he folds the river) if you're ahead.

Or something like that.

KO

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I think the turn bet is a clear bet for value. As BisonBison used to say in this forum, "Dont fear the flush!" If you get check raised you obviously call and hope to fill up on the river. This is a hand where a good read is nice, to know whether villain is capable of a bluff/semi-bluff on the scare card.

[cold_cash]

I think not betting this turn licks nuts.

Would checking it through be right against certain opponents? Probably, but that doesn't really say a whole lot.

I could come up with plays that make you think "Man, that looks retarded", and I could say, "Well, my opponent was a such and such who liked to do this and that", and you'd say "Oh, well against THAT guy I guess it's okay".

99% of the time betting is better, I'd wager.

[sy_or_bust]

The flush isn't even an issue here. If UTG+2 has it, congratulations, but there's no reason to suspect it.

The real problem is the river redraw which could make a 4-flush board, which you really don't want. You have to bet this. Nobody folds a diamond here, so you have massive equity if you're facing one. In milder situations I only make the check behind against some sort of TAG/sLP-A who might bet the river himself but not call the turn. That's a rare read. Against typical players I bet a reasonable board 100%, judging see-the-river tendencies as far greater than bluff rivers. In any case, this isn't all that important to BB/100.

[vulturesrow]

[ QUOTE ]
The flush isn't even an issue here. If UTG+2 has it, congratulations, but there's no reason to suspect it.

The real problem is the river redraw which could make a 4-flush board, which you really don't want. You have to bet this. Nobody folds a diamond here, so you have massive equity if you're facing one. In milder situations I only make the check behind against some sort of TAG/sLP-A who might bet the river himself but not call the turn. Against typical players I bet a reasonable board 100%, judging see-the-river tendencies as far greater than bluff rivers. In any case, this isn't all that important to BB/100.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree with the flush isnt issue. But your bet in most situations isnt going to drive out the average Party idiot off his flush draw. Thats why I said it is a clear value bet.

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
Against typical players I bet a reasonable board 100%, judging see-the-river tendencies as far greater than bluff rivers.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty key.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
Agree with the flush isnt issue. But your bet in most situations isnt going to drive out the average Party idiot off his flush draw. Thats why I said it is a clear value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]


The reason I posted this thread is because I'm questioning how much value there is in a bet here on the turn.

Firstly, let's just all ignore the possibility of protecting your hand against a low diamond. Yes, this is a VERY good reason to bet, and considering it I would bet this turn everytime, but it really wasn't central to why I posted this thread. Let's all just pretend your opponent knows you don't have a higher diamond, and will call any bet you put in with any diamond.

The only hands I see calling a bet here is another A, the flush, and a single diamond. I imagine any other pair (even a mid-PP like 88) will fold.

I say they will fold because party fish do sometimes fold, and this is a typical situation that I see them fold.

Lets say you're a fish, and you've got 7/images/graemlins/club.gif4/images/graemlins/spade.gif. That flop comes down, you think "ooh! I've almost got two pair! If I hit it I can beat his ace!", so you call the flop bet.

On the turn however, alot of scary things happened. The flush came in, and that pair of aces just became 3 of a kind. Your measly pair of fours isn't looking very good, no one else is in this small pot with you, and that guy keeps on betting at you.

This is when fish fold. You'll probably get a few to tag along with just a weak pair here, but I don't see it happening too often.

I also think a fish with a weak pair will be more inclined to call a river bet if you have checked the turn. "I won't let him bluff me!"


If these things are true, a turn bet is getting value from both a weaker ace and a diamond. You're losing value against a better ace (not very likely) or a made flush.

However, if you check the turn and bet the river, you'll likely to get value from a weak pair and the weaker ace. You'll also lose less against the flush and a better ace.

What I want to discuss is whether this analysis is right, and if so, which value bet nets you more value?