Short stacked question

[binions]

Last night in the Stars 100+9, 27 spots paid. We were down to 20 players. 19-27 paid $172, and 10-18 paid $295. First paid $6700, and the top 6 made $1000+

Blinds are 400-800, and a minute away from 600-1200. I am in the big blind with T5500, shortest stack in the tourney.

Midposition makes it 4000 to go, and the SB calls. Both have me covered. I have 66.

I weighed my options. Triple up this hand and try to win the thing (or finish high)? If they both had AK for example, I am a big favorite. If one had AK and the other AQ, I am still getting an overlay. If one or both have overpairs, I am putting in 33% to win 20% or so.

Or do I fold and try to hold on and win try to $123 more by making the top 18, knowing that I am a longshot to make the final table and make more than $295?

1. What would you do and why?

2. If your answer is fold 66, how big a pocket pair would you need to push here?

[SossMan]

what were their stack sizes. Especially the SB.

I'm trying to assess the chances of 88-TT for the SB.

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
what were their stack sizes. Especially the SB.

I'm trying to assess the chances of 88-TT for the SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I recall, the SB had 19,000 and the initial raiser had 16,000, which was about average.

[woodguy]

If you push you will re-open the betting, which makes it probable that either MP or SB will raise to isolate.

If that happens you will be getting almost 3-1 HU which favours pushing here.

If they both come along your pot equity over their probable range is ~30%, so you aren't quite getting the price you need.

As an aside, most of the 5XBB raises I see online are 88-JJ, and are not usually two big cards.

SB's flat call is somewhat confusing, but if he also thinks MP is raising a mid pair, I put him on two high cards trying to outflop the MP. Would help to know SB's stack.

Given my personal experiance with a 5XBB raise, I'm probably folding here, UNLESS I can count of the SB to raise to isolate if MP flat calls the push, and MP isn't pot commited enough to have to call an isolation raise, and MP isn't likely to try to isolate himself.

Hmmm, a lot of "ifs" there.

Was SB a big stack, and how was his aggression?

Is MP commited if he calls your push and SB comes over top?

Soss is right, stack sizes are needed here.

Regards,
Woodguy

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what were their stack sizes. Especially the SB.

I'm trying to assess the chances of 88-TT for the SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

As I recall, the SB had 19,000 and the initial raiser had 16,000, which was about average.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like the fact that the SB just called for 25% of her stack. I would probably let it go here. You still have time.

[woodguy]

With those stack sizes they will both be pretty tied to the pot which puts you behind the 8 ball with only 66.

If they were both deeper, one may be able to drive out the other, but not here.

As to the second part of your question, with two in before I act I really want TT or better to get involved, but 99 works for me sometimes as well, depending on the opponents and their chips.

Regards,
Woodguy

[binions]

I debated and called. Even if one or both had an overpair, I figured I was 4.2:1 to hit a set by the river, and if I did, I was likely in for an extra $1K+ payday. If I folded, I was likely in for an extra $120 payday.

Turns out, initial raiser had AK offsuit, and SB had 99. An Ace flopped, but SB won with miracle flush. No 6 came.

[jennicide]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the fact that the SB just called for 25% of her stack. I would probably let it go here. You still have time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with Soss here...The thing that I think I love most is actually playing a shortstack deep into a tournament (I usually am shortstacked anyway /images/graemlins/wink.gif but I think you can find better spots than 66 here. If you push, you are obviously getting two calls (beg for 55 and 44?) and more than likely you'd probably be facing at least 3 overcards or an overpair.

To push in this spot, however, I think you would need TT or higher. I don't think it's necessary to fold 'until the $' unless you are only to make it right in the next payout level, I'd rather be heads up with someone with your stack size.

You are not in immediate threat with the blinds, very short but some of my best finishes in tournaments have been when I had less than 5-6 bb's left and we were already in the money. Generally, what happens here is that when I am shortstacked, it brings the gamble out of me and I try my hardest to push when I see easier spots. It's not that I give up and just push with 'live cards'. The fact is if I have a player raising into me, I'm not going to be reluctant to call/push with 68o because I put my opponent on higher cards and I need a little bit of luck here to win because of how cold my cards have been the past few blind levels.

The one problem that I occassionally run into is being CO or on the button and pushing with a marginal - strong hand and leaving my stack no threat to the blinds so by my pushing I give them the right odds to call and see the flop...unless I end up catching a miracle, it's generally gg here as they check it down.

I'm glad you made the fold with 66 though. It shows that you are using your brain + playing poker /images/graemlins/smile.gif Better luck next time...it's never fun putting yourself in a position to win and the cards just aren't giving you any love!!! /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[FishInAPhoneBooth]

[ QUOTE ]
As to the second part of your question, with two in before I act I really want TT or better to get involved, but 99 works for me sometimes as well, depending on the opponents and their chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is 99 really enough to push when preceded by a substantial raise and a call? In theory I agree with jennicide and would want a hand >TT. Isn't this a situation where one wants to avoid late in a tournament despite the acceptable pot odds? Or is this a situation where with a decent PP one does just that, Push and Pray?

I just ran the stove and if: raiser = AA-77, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo; caller = AA-TT, AKs-ATs, KQs, AKo; TT = 32%, 99 = 28%, and 66 = 24%. Is even TT enough?

It's got to be the newb in me, but I just don't like the idea of letting a few hours of work ride on a 33% chance when avoidable. Perhaps I am seeing monsters under my bed, giving too much credit to the range of hands that are being played in the later stages?

[woodguy]

I could be wrong, and it wouldn't be the first time. (I'm probably wrong more than right /images/graemlins/tongue.gif)
For instance I put MP and SB on each others hands in this thread.

I think your range of hands for both players is too tight.

You will see flat calls with pairs down to 55 and suited connectors like JQs, especially if the flat caller has position on the initial raiser and has a big stack.

With the range I usually use for this situation:

OR - AA-55, AKs-ATs, KQs, AKo-ATo, KQo 30% 33%
FC - AA-55, AKs-AQs, KQs, AKo-AQo, KQo 33% 34%
ME- TT 36%
ME- 99 33%

My range could be too wide.

If I'm short stacked getting this type of pot equity to triple up is good enough for me.

Regards,
Woodguy

[FishInAPhoneBooth]

[ QUOTE ]
I could be wrong, and it wouldn't be the first time. (I'm probably wrong more than right /images/graemlins/tongue.gif)


[/ QUOTE ]

I bet you are right about the 99 v TT. I am just bitter because 99 has been the death of me four times this week.

I guess what I am really confused about is what I should be calling raises with late in the game. How many of those hands would you call with? (Read: Fish sees obviously monsters under his bed.)

[docknet]

If I think I can't limp with 66 here, I'm folding it and waiting for something better. It's a terrible hand and is beaten more often than it wins. It's not much different than going allin with 22 or 33--chances are, if you're called, you're beat.