i can't find the +EV!! (kinda long)

[elmitchbo]

I just spent alot of time reading through the variance post by Toffler. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1668690&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1

very interesting stuff. ed miller said in his post that "99.9% of all limit hold 'em players would make more money, grow their bankroll faster, and have more fun playing if they just forgot about this lowering variance crap and made the highest EV play they could." there in the problem lies. i don't think i really have a grip on quantifying +/-EV situations, and therefore it's not that easy to make the highest EV play all the time. i've read SSHE over and over(along with other poker books, and these forums) and i have a descent grip on how to play 'correct' poker. it's easy enough to know when you have a monster, or when you have crap. but i have a very difficult time deciding if i have +EV with more average hands in more average situations. i know pot odds, pot equity, etc., but i don't think that's enough, or at least that doesn't seem to be enough to cover all the complexities of the game.

maybe it's my lack of math skills. i passed calculus and statistics in college, but i'm certainly no math whiz like the MIT probability forum guys. some of the replies to toffler's variance post ( http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1673457&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&vc=1 ) really appealed to me because that's much closer to the way i see things... 'portfolio management' is inline with my education and natural thought process. i think i view risk vs. reward a little differently than 'math' guys, and i think that might hold me back from making some plays that i should or cause me to make plays that i shouldn't.

again from mr. miller..."that's what poker players do ALL THE TIME to themselves when they try these "I'm gonna lower my EV and variance" plays. They pick all sorts of inappropriate spots that "seem" right, and they end up playing like douchebags." well, count me in the douchebag category. i do that crap all the time. how do i know what is the appropriate time? is it really as simple as 'i've got pot odds, so i call'? i don't think so.

as a mediocre, but improving player it seems to me that these 'bubble' situations are the deal breaker. in order to really make money and beat the rake you have to win with more tha AA in the whole. what's the best way to figure it out? is it just a matter of experience, or is it something that i just don't understand? i think poker might be driving me crazy. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[dogmeat]

You have posted an excellent question. I will leave the bulk of the answering to players who have proven themselves better than myself, however it is probably obvious to you that every single hand can be played differently if there are enough variables to change the basic outlook.

If you hold KJ offsuit under the gun in a game against strong players, you need to muck it. I don't think there is any debate over this. However, if you hold it against the same group of players and three people have called and you are on the button, is it now worth playing?

Yes, it probably is because this hand likes plenty of callers to improve your odds and make it +EV. What would still make this hand -EV? Something as simple as a limper UTG who only calls from there with AA,KK,QQ or JJ or AK suited. Now you can only anticipate winning if you hit a straight, and you are going to pay dearly trying to make that straight. The times you do hit it have to pay you more than the times you miss. Will they?

If you were to play tight, perhaps only the top 25 hands, you might show a profit. If you then sat down and figured out when it was +EV to play the next 25 hands by position/competition/number already in pot/ etc. then you would be well on your way to understanding when to vary from the top 25, and when to muck.

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[mosquito]

For small stakes games, read SSHE. It gives all the
+EV starting hand criteria in several forms, from a
'paint by numbers' list to theoretical considerations
that a player may use to vary the list based on game
conditions.

Studying this book, including learning to play well
after the flop, will give you the +EV.

I personally leave some money on the table by
"reducing fluctuation". I do so knowingly, by not
playing some very small +EV hands. How much does it
cost? I don't know. I run 1.5 BB/HR B+M small stakes,
perhaps I could do 2BB. Maybe only 1.6BB.

But the main point is to study the book. Without having
a solid grasp of the game, choosing to do differently
will cost more than .1 or .5BB/HR.