Understanding pot odds

[smizmiatch]

This is a tangent from this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1690875&page=1&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1&vc=1) in the Short Handed Forum.
I need help understanding the odds in a simple situation:
If it's one bet to me on the flop when I only have overcards in a three-way pot with seven bets (six preflop plus one on the flop) so far, is a call or raise justified? Assume the flop was total rags and there are no backdoor draws.
My reasoning is that it's not, but I've been told I'm wrong.
My thinking: With as many as six outs, I have a 13 percent (6/47) chance of hitting on the turn. But a call would cost 14 percent of the pot (1 bet/7 bets). So I believe a call isn't worth it.
Even if my math and reasoning is correct, some posters in the other thread argued that a call is justified because 13 percent and 14 percent are close enough to each other. Is that logical?
Thank you for your help.

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a tangent from this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1690875&page=1&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1&vc=1) in the Short Handed Forum.
I need help understanding the odds in a simple situation:
If it's one bet to me on the flop when I only have overcards in a three-way pot with seven bets (six preflop plus one on the flop) so far, is a call or raise justified? Assume the flop was total rags and there are no backdoor draws.
My reasoning is that it's not, but I've been told I'm wrong.
My thinking: With as many as six outs, I have a 13 percent (6/47) chance of hitting on the turn. But a call would cost 14 percent of the pot (1 bet/7 bets). So I believe a call isn't worth it.
Even if my math and reasoning is correct, some posters in the other thread argued that a call is justified because 13 percent and 14 percent are close enough to each other. Is that logical?
Thank you for your help.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is a simple way to do it:

Figure out how many betting units are in the pot compared to how many betting units you have to call. Then add 1. Then multiply by your effective outs. If this number = or > than 47, you can call and see the turn. If not, fold. On the turn, if the number is = or > 46, then you can call to see the river.

For example, 7 small bets in the pot, and 1 small bet to call and see the turn. 7+1=8*6 outs = 48 (>47), so you can call IF YOU HAVE 6 EFFECTIVE OUTS. WARNING: Oftentimes, overcard outs are overvalued, and you have less than 6 effective outs.

Now, let's compare the traditional way to make sure our formula is correct. Pot is offering 7:1. Assume you have 6 effective outs in 47 unseen cards, so the odds to hit your hand is 41:6 or 6.8:1.

See, you can call with 6 effective outs the traditional way too.

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

PS - You can do it the % way you suggest, using 6/47. But if you do that, then you must include your call into the size of the pot. So, 6/47 > 1/8. If you don't want to include your call into the size of the pot, then 6/41 > 1/7.

[smizmiatch]

Thanks. That's helpful.
I still don't understand why I would include my call into the size of the pot if I calculate odds by percentage.
And if I don't want to include my call into the size of the pot, why do I adjust the odds of making my hand to 6/41?

[binions]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks. That's helpful.
I still don't understand why I would include my call into the size of the pot if I calculate odds by percentage.
And if I don't want to include my call into the size of the pot, why do I adjust the odds of making my hand to 6/41?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's the difference between odds and chances.

Your odds of hitting a 6 outer with 47 unseen cards is 41:6 against. 41 cards don't help you. 6 do.

Your chance of hitting is 6 cards out of the whole deck of 47 cards is 6/47.

Likewise, your pot odds are 7:1 - 7 small bets in the pot, and 1 to call.

Your pot chances are 1/8 - you put one in, and you get back the whole pot of 8 if you win.

Think of it this way - if you want to look at the whole deck, you need to look at the whole pot.

But most people use odds.

Very few use the multiplication trick in my first post - but it's the easiest of all.

[patrick dicaprio]

just note that this type of information is not terribly important and certainly not nearly as important as figuring out if those 6 outs are clean or figuring out what hands are out there or what will happen on the turn etc.

Pat