TPTK waits to raise until turn, but action is scary

[randomfish]

I only had a handful of hands on each opponent (around 50), but so far UTG is LAG, 35/18/1.8, MP3 is a superfish at 70/1.5/0.4, and SB is 80/17/1.8. However, I haven't seen any bluffs or overly aggressive tendencies from either of the LAGs, so maybe they're just hitting their cards?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls.

<font color="blue">Raising here would lay my opponents 14-1 on a call, meaning they could call with as few as 3 outs, so I'm calling this planning to raise the turn if a blank falls.</font>

Turn: (6.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP3 calls, Hero...?

<font color="blue">The 9/images/graemlins/club.gif looks relatively harmless, but loosey-goosey SB still likes his hand and suddenly UTG wakes up. Ed Miller tells me to raise a single bet here, but how about a bet and raise?

[dinero2433]

You're right, this action is scary. I'd still try and raise to knock out SB, but if I had to guess I'd say you're behind to a set or two pair.

If SB fires back, loose or not, you may have to get away from this hand. This is a tough one...

[randomfish]

Raising would still give SB almost 9-1 on a call, assuming UTG and MP3 call behind. And even if he folds, UTG might cap, and the pot would be enormous making it a pretty hard laydown.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Raising here would lay my opponents 14-1 on a call, meaning they could call with as few as 3 outs, so I'm calling this planning to raise the turn if a blank falls.

[/ QUOTE ]
No reason to wait here. You can't protect your hand on the turn. If flop bettor bets, 2 calls, you raise, the odds for thm to call is 1:11.5.

The board isn't that scary so you would like to wait for a safe turn. Raise the flop and go from there.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
If SB fires back, loose or not, you may have to get away from this hand. This is a tough one...

[/ QUOTE ]
No way! The odds for a call is 1:21.5

[randomfish]

[ QUOTE ]

No reason to wait here. You can't protect your hand on the turn. If flop bettor bets, 2 calls, you raise, the odds for thm to call is 1:11.5.

The board isn't that scary so you would like to wait for a safe turn. Raise the flop and go from there.

[/ QUOTE ]

11.5-1 with one card to come is better than 14-1 with two, though, and it's not a given that the flop bettor will bet, or that everyone will call.

It's not the nightmare board from hell, but raising the flop would make it correct for lone kings and queens to call, or someone with a suited ten -- stuff like that.

Ed Miller has a hand quiz that kind-of-sort-of plays like this hand, on page 291 in SSH -- a bunch of limpers, Hero raises with AQ in LP, and the pot is big on the flop so he advocates raising the turn instead. However, in the example hand everyone checks to the flop raiser, whereas here someone raises the flop bettor on a somewhat intriguing turn card.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Ed Miller has a hand quiz that kind-of-sort-of plays like this hand, on page 291 in SSH -- a bunch of limpers, Hero raises with AQ in LP, and the pot is big on the flop so he advocates raising the turn instead. However, in the example hand everyone checks to the flop raiser, whereas here someone raises the flop bettor on a somewhat intriguing turn card.

[/ QUOTE ]
I like this comparision but there are differances. First of all we shouldn't let the turn action on this hand effect our thinking, we could not know that this turn was going to get raised. But if we had raised the flop we would better know where we stand to this raise. The turn raiser could easily have waited to the turn to raise a hand like KJ/QJ to protect his hand better. By not raising the flop we don't know where we stand.

That being said I should move on to the differances that make Miller call in SSHE. First of all the pot is bigger in his exapmle. But the biggest reason for him to wait is because he have better relative position on the flop raiser than Hero has in his hand. You have to assume that a bet on the turn will come from the flop aggressor. In the example in SSHE Miller will face 2 players with 2 cold, Hero will not face a single player with 2 cold by waiting to the turn.

I'm pretty sure that makes a differance between raising the flop and waiting to the turn.

Looking over this post I realize I should have studied english a little harder in school, my English looks like Yiddish. Sorry, but I hope you got what I ment. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[randomfish]

Terrific post, good points all around.

Just to play the devil's advocate though, I'm not sure raising this flop will give us much information. Getting 14-1, my opponents can call with nearly any two.

Also, while I won't be facing anyone with 2 cold by waiting for the turn, my edge will be much bigger on a safe turn card than it is on he flop, so I can raise for value; whereas on the flop, if I raise and someone draws out on me the pot size will make it a hard hand to lay down, and getting to the showdown will be expensive, eating up a lot of the profit from my flop edge?

[dreddie26]

isn't that the reason to raise the flop ? big chance 99 would have folded ?

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
isn't that the reason to raise the flop ? big chance 99 would have folded ?

[/ QUOTE ]
I guess I'm kind of ragging on you dred (sorry) but do you really think 99 would fold for 1 more bet in a huge pot after already calling for 1? I do agree with a raise on the flop here, pretty much for all the reasons nick said. But I just think your particular case of "99 will fold" is wrong, given that all players have already called 1 bet.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Just to play the devil's advocate though, I'm not sure raising this flop will give us much information. Getting 14-1, my opponents can call with nearly any two.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're right about that I won't fold any hand by raising, but my point was that if I raise the flop it takes a better hand than for example KJ/QJ to raise the turn when SB bets out. You're not gaining any information on the flop if they call, but on the turn if they bet (and raise).

If you raise the flop, everybody calls and then SB bets out on the turn and UTG raises you can safely assume you're behind. Raising/calling will now not be an alternative (you're getting 1:5.5 from the pot and have not the odds to draw).

In this hand where you didn't raise the flop you ain't got no clue where you stand to UTG's raise.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, while I won't be facing anyone with 2 cold by waiting for the turn, my edge will be much bigger on a safe turn card than it is on he flop

[/ QUOTE ]
Yup, your edge will be bigger, but but not much bigger. I ran some sims where I assumed you're up agaist 2 overs (KQ), a flush draw and another jack (WAY better hands than you'll be on average) and still you're equity is 37% on the flop. When a safe turn falls your equity only rised to 50% (it's natural for the equity to raise when you have the best hand on the flop and a safe turn falls). This raise is not near enough to wait for the turn. On the flop you have a hugh edge and 3 players trapped, charge them. If you look in SSHE (p. 161) the example where Miller waits for the turn is on a much more scary board QT8 2 of the same suit. It takes a very draw friendly board for making waiting to the turn correct.

[ QUOTE ]
whereas on the flop, if I raise and someone draws out on me the pot size will make it a hard hand to lay down, and getting to the showdown will be expensive, eating up a lot of the profit from my flop edge?

[/ QUOTE ]
You can fold for 2 bets on the turn, but not for one. Calling one bet on the turn getting about 1:11 from the pot is easy and profitable. When you're pushing a big edge like you did on the flop and are ending up in another +EV situation on the turn, you shouldn't worry. Playing poker is about ending up in +EV situation and exploit them.


Cheers!
/Nick

[dreddie26]

maybey/probaly, but is still think you should raise on the turn, for the reasons nick said in his last post.

[randomfish]

37 percent? Really?

Alright, next time I'm 3-betting this flop!

Thanks for the lesson /images/graemlins/smile.gif