Bubbled in 4 straight.............

[boondockst]

2-Table $22 NL Holdem on Party

I always make those gambles with middle pair and lose them (i know it sounds absolutely stupid)

even with the FTOP.......seeing he has what he has how does he not fear a set, two pair, a higher kicker, or a draw?

I thought winning already% + fold equity + suckout% if behind = +EV........am i way way off????


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG (t5608)
MP (t4080)
<font color="#C00000">Hero (t1905)</font>
SB (t6024)
<font color="#C00000">BB (t2383)</font>

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t400</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls t200.

Flop: (t900) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t300</font>, Hero calls [t1505] , BB calls t1205.

Turn: (t2405) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t2405) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t2405

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Ah 9h (one pair, nines).
BB has Qc 5h (one pair, queens).
Outcome: BB wins t2405. </font>

[Pepsquad]

Wow. VERY loose call by villain there. I would've mucked Q5 there without thinking twice. But give him credit, his read was good. You may need to go back and examine his (and your) prior plays during this tourney. Did he make several other marginal calls like this? Had you been bullying too much and he finally caught something?

[boondockst]

i was playing extremely tight and considering the chip stacks, he was risking all but going out here....

I'm assuming he doesn't put me on anything and is just giddy to see the cards he should have folded hit a top pair...

Is my play as horrid as it made me feel? I always make these gambles..no one else does that?

When that board comes K22 you don't push with your AA saying, naw, he doesn't have that 2.......?

[Pepsquad]

[ QUOTE ]
i was playing extremely tight and considering the chip stacks, he was risking all but going out here....

I'm assuming he doesn't put me on anything and is just giddy to see the cards he should have folded hit a top pair...

Is my play as horrid as it made me feel? I always make these gambles..no one else does that?

When that board comes K22 you don't push with your AA saying, naw, he doesn't have that 2.......?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the push. What's different between this scenario and an outright bluff is that you have some genuine outs. Backdoor flush draw, any 9 or A. You're not dead in the water even when you're called.

[woodguy]

You need to raise more than just a min raise.

A min-raise give the BB 3.5-1 to see a flop (assuming the SB doesn't come along), which is too much to resist for some players.

Also, many players will call a min raise in their BB and fire on any flop as part of their blind denfence.

Given that you have less than 10XBB you should have pushed all in PF, this is a reasonable hand to do that with.

Regards,
Woodguy

[oneeye13]

maybe don't min-raise the blinds in no-limit? seems like that is the problem on this hand.

[boondockst]

if i could see his cards postflop, shouldn't i still push there? i was hoping he had a draw or just the 9 or just poking around but the player always has that top pair when i have the middle pair HU.

If i push with A9 i was afraid a blind would have rockets or something....The first bubble out of my 4 straight happened when UTG min-raised and i was on the Button and openpushed a medium stack with AQ and the BB had AA....I figured he'd have raised with a legitimate queen hand and was very shocked to see Q5o risking their tournament life...

If i can consistently get from 20 players down to 5 but get bubbled 4 straight....anything else i'm doing wrong?

[Gar Pike]

So, you might want to look at the stack size of the blinds. In this case, the 2nd shortest stack is your opponent. He sees a LP min-raise, this is not a poweful opening bid. You need to raise more, if not push, here, and make him risk most all his chips on crapola, not just risk an extra small bet.

As far as his flop bet goes, I think a 1/3 pot bet is an invitation to play along, not a take-out, I would put your folding equity here near 0%, and your chance of being ahead not very good, either.

2 things you can do, other than fold here, are 1) Raise to 900 (3X his bet) or 2) Call, then push on the turn. Both of these would represent more strength than your immediate push did, and would give you more folding equity.

Of course, all of your options would work better if you had more chips... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Were you the short stack on all your bubble-outs? I find I don't give the short stack a lot of respect on their all-ins, that could be why he called your flop raise (along with having top pair, of course)

Regards

Gar

[drewjustdrew]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow. VERY loose call by villain there. I would've mucked Q5 there without thinking twice. But give him credit, his read was good. You may need to go back and examine his (and your) prior plays during this tourney. Did he make several other marginal calls like this? Had you been bullying too much and he finally caught something?

[/ QUOTE ]

You may want to rethink your play. This is 5 handed. Button makes a min-raise. I would call without batting an eye (which is my only tell /images/graemlins/wink.gif). I would put the button on any two cards. If I hit a pair on the board, I expect to be ahead, especially if one of those cards is a queen. I would bet some amount on the flop regardless. If I hit a queen, then I am calling an all-in. Otherwise, I hope my opponent releases.

You can't just play your own two cards.

[11t]

Push PF.

[Sam T.]

I'm with Drew here. I faced a similar situation last week, except I was the clown holding Q3o. Min-raise from the button, and I decide to try a stop &amp; go. (I guess this is a questionable at some levels, but at $10, it is pure gold.)

Flop comes Qxx, and like Drew I'm going to felt here. I bet 2/3 the pot, he pushes, I call.

He's got AA, which was too bad, but I rivered my queen, and went on to take third. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

So yes, it is POSSIBLE you have a set or two pair, but if he put you on a steal he probably is thinking he's ahead.