How to play the bubble (or not to play the bubble)

[Scuba Chuck]

Thought this was worth showing. I'm sure I'll get blasted for doing this with a small BIG stack, but I am an aggressive player:

Two things to learn from this.

First, I was pushing everytime if the little stack folded, with any two cards.

Second, the reason why you don't want to call this bet, even with AK.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t2870)
SB (t2200)
BB (t1880)
UTG (t1050)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
Preflop: BB is dealt A /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Flop: (t4750) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG folds, Hero pushes, SB folds, BB calls

Turn: (t4750) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

River: (t4750) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

Final Pot: t4750

Scuba Chuck: "stupid call"
Scuba Chuck: "welcome to 4th place buddy"
Villain: "bs"
Villain: "you're all-in every hand"
Villain: "how's calling with ak stupid"
Scuba_Chuck: "because ur in 4th place"

There was a lot more railbirding following this, but I think you get the picture.

[ChrisV]

Actually, he's correct to call with that hand. The ICM wants 63.17% win to break even, AK's equity is 65.72.

Also, you want to be a little careful exploiting this principle because the Fundamental Theorem Of Poker doesn't apply to SNGs. Just because your opponent calls incorrectly doesn't mean it's good for you.

[Pepsquad]

I like the aggression. The trash talk was low-class.

[Scuba Chuck]

Okay, let's do the ICM calcs then. I've never done them for this before, so I'd like to see.

I am going to do them from Villains' point of view.

Fold = 23.5% of prize pool.

Push, win = 48.8% of the prize pool

Push, lose = 0.00% of prize pool

I'll give the benefit that the probability of winning with AK against any range of hands is 70%

Thus Pushing = (.7)(.488) + 0 = 34%

I guess you're right, pushing is the right thing to do, at least according to ICM.

[Scuba Chuck]

Actually, he's correct to call with that hand. The ICM wants 63.17% win to break even, AK's equity is 65.72.

Can you explain how you got these ICM numbers to me?

[ChrisV]

I was running the numbers for specifically those two hands, 62 and AK (of those suits).

The AK equity I got with Pokerstove. The ICM number required to break even you do by creating an equation where x is that number and solving for x.

Let a be ICM equity of folding (as a decimal)
Let b be ICM equity of pushing and winning
Let c be ICM equity of pushing and losing

a = b(x) + c(1-x)

Solve that for x. In this example c is zero, which simplifies things to a = b(x).

[GimmeDaWatch]

Handled with true class and dignity. You dont really see the beneficiary of the suckout taunting the loser too often,
its a real treat.

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the aggression. The trash talk was low-class.

[/ QUOTE ]

well said

[shoeman]

I definately like the aggressive play on the bubble.

However, I'd have a hard time passing up on AK here if I were the BB. There are only a few hands I call with here and I think AK is one of them.

BTW, I played few 20s with you yesterday Scuba_Chuck. I believe you busted out of one when your AA was cracked.

[KenProspero]

So, on that PARTICULAR hand, you're saying that it was a bad bet for Chuck to play AA?

[ColdestCall]

Scuba, I'm a little unsure why you felt it necessary to taunt the loser after the hand...had he said something to provoke you earlier in the tournament?

Personally, I think its incumbent upon the winning/more knowledgable players to avoid this kind of table talk with one exception(and even this may be wrong, but I just can't help it)... If there is a player at the table who is taunting me, or the other players, I'll usually encourage him nicely to stop, and, if he doesn't, I really let him have it, especially when he busts out, as these types of players do with alarming regularity OOTM.

Anyway, I guess it's really your business what you chat, and maybe I'm just being a "poker mom," but consider this: 1. If losing players are enjoying themselves and keep losing, you win. 2. If other players think you are a "sucker," but you're not, you win. 3. The more pleasant it is to play poker, the more people are likely to play, and the more you should win.

Now, as I've said in other posts, I don't think the fish are going to do anything but multiply, no matter what anyone chats, so 1-3 could be discounted on that basis, but, most importantly,

4. The poker giants that we all wish we were handle both losing and winning with equanimity and class (yeah, Hellmuth whines and Arieh acts like a child, but would you rather act like them, or Brunson or Raymer.)

[1C5]

Oh man I can't stand Arieh just by watching him on TV. What an idiot.

[jcm4ccc]

Let’s do the ICM calculations for you, and see how often you need them to fold for your push to be correct with any 2.

Since you pushed with 62o, I will assume that if you are called, you are being called by 2 overcards. Let’s go with Q9o. Against 2 overcards, you will win 34% of the time, and lose 66% of the time. Here are the 4 possibilities (I am assuming that you will never be called by both hands)

Fold: 31.5% (ICM percentage of pool)
Push, both blinds fold: 33.9%
Push, SB calls: 23.6% (calculations below)
Push, BB calls: 25.4% (calculations below)

To simplify things, let’s combine SB and BB
Push, SB or BB calls: 24.5%


How often do you need both SB and BB to fold for the percentage to be exactly the same?
(x = folding percentage of SB and BB)

.315 = .339 * x + (.245 * (1 – x)
Solving for x
x = 74.5%


So you need the SB &amp; the BB to fold 74.5% of the time for your push to be break-even. Dividing that by 2, you need the SB and the BB to call less than 12.75% of the time for your push to be positive:

74.5%: SB and BB fold
12.75%: SB calls, BB folds
12.75%: SB folds, BB calls
(.339 * .745) + (.245 * .1275) + (.245 * .1275) = 31.5% of prize pool.

If the SB and the BB call 15% of the time:
(.339 * .7) + (.245 * .15) + (.245 * .15) = 31.0% of prize pool

If the SB and BB call 10% of the time:
(.339 * .8) + (.245 * .10) + (.245 * .10) = 32% of prize pool


Given that you had been pushing a lot of hands, I would think that either one would call you more than 12.75% of the time.



[CALCULATIONS]
Calculations if SB calls:
Push, SB calls, you win
ICM% of pool, 42.8%

Push, SB calls, you lose
ICM% of pool: 13.8%

So your percentage of pool if the SB calls is:
(.428*.34) + (.138*.66) = 23.6%



Calculations if BB calls:
Push, BB calls, you win
ICM% of pool: 41.4%

Push, BB calls, you lose
ICM% of pool: 17.2%

So your percentage of pool if the BB calls is:
(.414*.34) + (.172*.66) = 25.4%

[shoeman]

No, not at all. It was 100% the right move in this case. Just a bad beat. The comment actually had nothing to do with the thread. Sorry for the confusion.

[Afrosquad]

[ QUOTE ]
I definately like the aggressive play on the bubble.

However, I'd have a hard time passing up on AK here if I were the BB. There are only a few hands I call with here and I think AK is one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would call in a millisecond against an aggressive raiser.

[Afrosquad]

[ QUOTE ]
Scuba, I'm a little unsure why you felt it necessary to taunt the loser after the hand...had he said something to provoke you earlier in the tournament?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming there was some provocation earlier. Otherwise, it's completely classless.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
The trash talk was low-class.


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Handled with true class and dignity. You dont really see the beneficiary of the suckout taunting the loser too often,
its a real treat.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Scuba, I'm a little unsure why you felt it necessary to taunt the loser after the hand...had he said something to provoke you earlier in the tournament?


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh man I can't stand Arieh just by watching him on TV. What an idiot.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming there was some provocation earlier. Otherwise, it's completely classless.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I have to admit that I was a classless poker player right there. Why did I do it? I don't know. I rarely if ever do it. Sometiems it just comes out. It could be frustration on another table, or a series of other tables, who knows? At the time, I guess I didn't think what I said was taunting. And I looked at the HH, and prior to that hand, admittedly, there was no provocation by villain for me to 'taunt'. Looking back, it was for sure taunting. I will be tight lipped forever forward.

And in my defense, I was not allin on every hand. Only 5 out of the previous 8, that's barely over half. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[microbet]

I'll do a little math on this one myself, but what hands do you push with here in general?

And if you had just received and folded 62 the last 5 times, do you push with it here because you will get the necessary respect?

[microbet]

First complication: Hero's ICM for folding depends on what happens to SB and BB. It can be as high as 35% if SB takes out BB.

[Bigwig]

If I'm the BB I call this everytime. Especially against someone raising loose.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Given that you had been pushing a lot of hands, I would think that either one would call you more than 12.75% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

No question.

If you are pushing most of the time, he has to make a stand at some point. You can't just look at his $EV in isolation. His $EV is going down every round as you run over the table, and he may never again see a better $EV than calling here with hands worse than AK.

[rickofcampbell]

[ QUOTE ]

And in my defense, I was not allin on every hand. Only 5 out of the previous 8, that's barely over half. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Only an idiot would call with AK against someone who had only gone all-in 5 out of the last 8 hands. What was he thinking? Certainly a trashing was in order!

That's what the poker world needs...more low-class scum. Do you lose as gracefully as you win?

[microbet]

Just about the folding ICM here.

Fold -&gt; SB folds: .314
Fold -&gt; SB pushes -&gt; BB folds: .316
Fold -&gt; SB pushes -&gt; BB calls -&gt; SB wins: .350
Fold -&gt; SB pushes -&gt; BB calls -&gt; BB wins: .338
Fold -&gt; SB completes -&gt; BB pushes -&gt; SB folds: .315

Those aren't all the possibilities obviously, but I think they are the most common, plus raises that aren't pushes will often end up all-in anyway.

I don't really have any strong basis for weighting these outcomes, but here's a SWAG:

.314 x .6 + .316 x .18 + .350 x .06 + .338 x .06 + .315 x .1 = .318

Not a huge difference, but using your calcs it then changes the percentage of times SB and BB need to fold from 74.5% to 77.6%.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
Just about the folding ICM here.

Fold -&gt; SB folds: .314
Fold -&gt; SB pushes -&gt; BB folds: .316
Fold -&gt; SB pushes -&gt; BB calls -&gt; SB wins: .350
Fold -&gt; SB pushes -&gt; BB calls -&gt; BB wins: .338
Fold -&gt; SB completes -&gt; BB pushes -&gt; SB folds: .315

Those aren't all the possibilities obviously, but I think they are the most common, plus raises that aren't pushes will often end up all-in anyway.

I don't really have any strong basis for weighting these outcomes, but here's a SWAG:

.314 x .6 + .316 x .18 + .350 x .06 + .338 x .06 + .315 x .1 = .318

Not a huge difference, but using your calcs it then changes the percentage of times SB and BB need to fold from 74.5% to 77.6%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't consider SB and BB calling just to simplify my calculations. But you're certainly right--considering that they both might call make this play even more dicey.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't consider SB and BB calling just to simplify my calculations. But you're certainly right--considering that they both might call make this play even more dicey.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, not faulting you, these things are incredibly complicated if you try and look at all possible outcomes.
In this case I wasn't looking at what happens if they both call your push, but what happens after you fold. The actions of SB and BB after your fold will affect your equity.

The possibility of them both calling is yet another complication. I'm not sure how that will affect your equity. It all but guarantees you ITM, but it also makes you very likely to be short stack ITM.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
That's what the poker world needs...more low-class scum.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Pot, I think you just called the Kettle black.

[Iamafish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I definately like the aggressive play on the bubble.

However, I'd have a hard time passing up on AK here if I were the BB. There are only a few hands I call with here and I think AK is one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would call in a millisecond against an aggressive raiser.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have pushed PF

BUT, he pushed on the flop. Depending on all other factors, I may fold.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I didn't consider SB and BB calling just to simplify my calculations. But you're certainly right--considering that they both might call make this play even more dicey.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, not faulting you, these things are incredibly complicated if you try and look at all possible outcomes.
In this case I wasn't looking at what happens if they both call your push, but what happens after you fold. The actions of SB and BB after your fold will affect your equity.

The possibility of them both calling is yet another complication. I'm not sure how that will affect your equity. It all but guarantees you ITM, but it also makes you very likely to be short stack ITM.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I didn't read your post carefully enough. Very interesting. I'll have to remember that the next time I attempt these kinds of calculations.

[rickofcampbell]

Good point...I guess you just need to be quiet and let people do what they need to do.

[microbet]

I'm not sure if you are being sarcastic.

That is not what I meant. Calling Scuba out for his rude chat was not rude in itself and I'm not saying it had to be done as if one were in a Merchant Ivory movie, but it seems to me that calling him a low-class scum was about as rude as he was in his chat.

That said, no fuhkin' big deal to me if a bunch of anonymous cocksuckers on the internet behave like ass-faces.

[Scuba Chuck]

jcm4ccc,

I'm curious, have you thought about doing an ICM analysis from villain's point of view?

[curtains]

I usually would just min raise, they are too scared to come over the top with nothing, yet you dont lose all your stupid chips when they do happen to have something. If someone has the courage to raise allin on a bluff when there is a guy with 1k chips, then congratulations to them.
All in all it won't affect your stealing percentage that much to raise less than allin, and you don't have to risk all your chips when it happens.

[curtains]

By the way its also an extremely easy call with AK, I have no clue why you decided to harrass them? It's not like the shortstack has 20 chips or anything here.

[curtains]

Really people need to stop allin'ing or folding. A min raise here does the trick nearly as often as an allin, yet you arent risking all your chips with 62o.

[ChrisV]

My bread and butter is people who think this way. I will reraise SO much more here than call a push. As BB I will be reraising you with any suited ace and any pair, for example, whereas I would certainly fold A6s and down and 44 and down (and probably other hands) to a push.

Allin as the big stack is better, but I wouldn't be playing the any-two-push game here at all, as the short stack is not short enough and your advantage over the other stacks is too slight.

[curtains]

Let me remind you that most players arent you. I probably wouldnt raise this hand to begin with, but based on my findings, people fold enough when min raising, where it's not usually worth it go allin in these situations with total garbage.

[microbet]

Well, a min-raise might not work on you, but it still might be +$EV.

Reraising the min-raise might get you trapped against an opponant who has a good read on you, but it could still be +$EV.

Not saying either line is good or bad, but just because curtain's line might not be good against you doesn't mean it doesn't work overall.

Personally, in this situation I fold, but barring that I push and follow the 10BB rule 95% of the time. But, I will min-raise occassionally as either a trap or as a real raise, depending on the table, my opponants, my table image, and the cards. But, I often only play 1 table so I can get pretty good reads.

[microbet]

hey, it looks like I was copying you, but I didn't see your post.

[11t]

Somebody said here, play as your opponents will act not as they should. Bad push, you could get called by a-c.

[Delphin]

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t2870)
SB (t2200)
BB (t1880)
UTG (t1050)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
Preflop: BB is dealt A /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Flop: (t4750) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG folds, Hero pushes, SB folds, BB calls

Turn: (t4750) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

River: (t4750) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

Final Pot: t4750

Scuba Chuck: "stupid call"
Scuba Chuck: "welcome to 4th place buddy"
Villain: "bs"
Villain: "you're all-in every hand"
Villain: "how's calling with ak stupid"
Scuba_Chuck: "because ur in 4th place"

There was a lot more railbirding following this, but I think you get the picture.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm confused. I'm guessing you pushed preflop, but the action is listed after the flop? If you pushed preflop, I'm not sure I'd say the BB is an idiot for calling, especially if you've been pushing a lot. In fact, give him some credit for his read, he got all in as a 66/34 favorite to win the hand. I don't have pokerstove handy, but AKo is pretty good against a random hand.