Annual Help Clark win $$ on the Oscars Thread

[Clarkmeister]

John Cole, where are you? I still remember you giving me Roman Polanski at +1200 for Best Director!

Best Actor
101 Jamie Foxx -2235
102 Leonardo di Caprio +1054
103 Clint Eastwood +2147
104 Johnny Depp +4574
105 Don Cheadle +5000

Best Actress
110 Hillary Swank -361
111 Annette Benning +272
112 Imelda Staunton +1935
113 Kate Winslett +5000
114 Catalina Sandino Moreno +5000

Best Director
115 Martin Scorcese -187
116 Clint Eastwood +114
117 Alexander Payne +5000
118 Taylor Hackford +5000
119 Mike Leigh +5000

Best Picture
120 The Aviator -233
121 Million Dollar Baby +172
122 Sideways +2196
123 Ray +5880
124 Finding Neverland +6000

Best Supporting Actor
125 Thomas Haden Church +217
126 Morgan Freeman -194
127 Clive Owen +697
128 Jamie Foxx +5000
129 Alan Alda +5000

Best Supporting Actress
130 Virginia Madsen +251
131 Cate Blanchett -176
132 Natalie Portman +492
133 Laura Linney +5000
134 Sophie Okonedo +5000

[Schneids]

[ QUOTE ]


Best Actor
101 Jamie Foxx -2235

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm boring but Foxx is such a sure-victory for this category.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Best Director
115 Martin Scorcese -187
116 Clint Eastwood +114
117 Alexander Payne +5000
118 Taylor Hackford +5000
119 Mike Leigh +5000

[/ QUOTE ]

The "talk" has been that Scorcese's guaranteed win here is not so guranteed and the Eastwood may now be the favorite. In general, Million Dollar Baby is becoming a bigger favorite to win many awards.

Some data:

http://www.imdb.com/features/rto/2005/poll/oscarpollresults

[nongice626]

what a weak yar for movies. how can the aviator poisiblely win? it was a VERY typical drama movie. No one cried at the end. There wasnt really anyhting much interesting about it. I can name a dozen similar movies to it. Really I dont understand its hype in anyway whatsoever.

id bet on nat portman.

[TimTimSalabim]

Hillary Swank is a lock. I'd load up, even at -361.

[ClaytonN]

Jamie Foxx
Hillary Swank
Clint Eastwood
"The Aviator"
Morgan Freeman
Virginia Madsen

Ole!

[pshreck]

I get confused on reading these Oscar lines... Foxx is a 22 to 1 favorite to win?

[andyfox]

Virgina Madsen seems the most likely winner among the +'s.

[ClaytonN]

The theme to this year's Oscars will be the fact that both actors winning awards will be African American.

And Chris Rock is hosting the show.

[ClaytonN]

[ QUOTE ]
Virgina Madsen seems the most likely winner among the +'s.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's always some wacky-ass winner from the supporting actor category every other year it seems.

I can't see how Freeman won't get shafted this time around, so methinks Madsen's got this one.

[MarkL444]

[ QUOTE ]
I get confused on reading these Oscar lines... Foxx is a 22 to 1 favorite to win?

[/ QUOTE ]

roughly

[pshreck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I get confused on reading these Oscar lines... Foxx is a 22 to 1 favorite to win?

[/ QUOTE ]

roughly

[/ QUOTE ]

That is crazy. After watching The Aviator, I actually think Leo should have a shot. I know nothing about how it works but I would normally figure Leo at 1 in 11 odds would be a great bet.

[andyfox]

I agree: I think Freeman's a shoe-in. For all the to-do, Sideways will get the bagel unless Madsen wins. She's the most sympathetic character in the movie.

[TimTimSalabim]

I agree with the others, Virginia Madsen will likely get the sentimental vote, and it will be their way of throwing a bone to Sideways, which won't win anything else. Plus she probably deserves it.

[ClaytonN]

And plus, screw Cate Blanchett. Hasn't she already won a few of those?

[Schneids]

Foxx at a 22:1 favorite is a bargain. I'll take bets on this.

[J_V]

But didn't we already have the year of the black oscar a couple years ago?

[TimTimSalabim]

I can't picture Aviator winning. I'd go for Million $ Baby.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
Foxx at a 22:1 favorite is a bargain. I'll take bets on this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll put $10 on Eastwood with ya at that rate.

[mmbt0ne]

None of these are my picks, but I would stand behind them with full confidence. The guy tends to know what he's talking about this time of year.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
Best Actress
112 Imelda Staunton +1935

[/ QUOTE ]

She probably won't win, but my friend is good at these things, and he thinks shes up got a good chance. Definitely better than the odds are laying.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />

Best Supporting Actor
125 Thomas Haden Church +217

[/ QUOTE ]

Another one of his picks. He has him pegged as the winner.

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />

Best Supporting Actress
130 Virginia Madsen +251
134 Sophie Okonedo +5000

[/ QUOTE ]

He wants Virginia Madsen to win, and says that she "she's won a shitload more than blanchett has so far." He threw Okonedo in there because "supp. actress goes to the underdog ALL the time. so the girl from hotel rwanda could totally win it"


Also, you don't have lines for the screenplays, and I don't know if they exist, but he has Eternal Sunshine or Incredibles for original ("anything but Aviator") and Million Dollar Baby ("no way for neverland, diaries, or sunset even though before sunset deserves it") for adapted.

EDIT: Just one more thing
"Friend: it went avitaor pic. baby direc. at the golden globes
Friend: but i would guess it goes the other way at oscars
Friend: or else both to clint"

[ClaytonN]

[ QUOTE ]
But didn't we already have the year of the black oscar a couple years ago?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but that was a sweep for best actor/actress

This time both male actors will win. (best actor, best supporting)

It will solidify things, make things less flukey with Hollywood if you're an established black actor.

[ClaytonN]

If Thomas Haden Church wins for best supporting I will be irritated.

Morgan Freeman deserves a fking Oscar.

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Best Actor
101 Jamie Foxx -2235

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm boring but Foxx is such a sure-victory for this category.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm still picking Paul Giamatti...

[andyfox]

I don't think she's won, but she deserved to for Elizabeth. Fantastic performance.

[andyfox]

I think you might even see a split. I believe only directors vote for Best Director, but all memberd of the Academy vote for Best Picture. So you might see Scorsese win for best director, yet Million $ Baby win for Best Picture. I think that happened when Speilberg won Best Director for Saving Private Ryan, yet Shakespeare in Love won for Best Picture.

[andyfox]

How he didn't win for Driving Miss Daisy is a mystery. Helluva performance in Shawshank too.

[ClaytonN]

It also happened with the director of "Traffic" and the movie "Gladiator"

[ClaytonN]

[ QUOTE ]
How he didn't win for Driving Miss Daisy is a mystery. Helluva performance in Shawshank too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Man, Shawshank comes first to mind for me. He just gets jibbed every year.

[Clarkmeister]

The first lines were from Pinnacle, where IMO the lines are usually the sharpest. Of course, they offer fewer exotic type bets, but you can bet what you want.

The following lines are from Olympic and have a $200 max bet, so are mostly for entertainment purposes. But for those who asked about things like Best Screenplay, at least there's something to discuss.

Best Achievement in Art Direction
801 The Aviator -200
802 Finding Neverland +300
803 The Phantom of the Opera +700
804 A Very Long Engagement +800
805 Lemony Snicket +1500

Best Achievement in Cinematography
811 The Aviator -200
812 The Passion of the Christ +350
813 The Phantom of the Opera +600
814 A Very Long Engagement +1200
815 The House of Flying Daggers +1000

Best Achievement in Costume Design
821 The Aviator -150
822 Finding Neverland +250
823 Lemony Snicket +500
824 Ray +800
825 Troy +1500

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
871 The Aviator +140
872 Ray +325
873 The Incredibles +650
874 Spider Man 2 +250
875 The Polar Express +1800

Best Actor
711 Jamie Foxx -1000
712 Leonardo di Caprio +1000
713 Clint Eastwood +2500
714 Johnny Depp +3000
715 Don Cheadle +1500

Best Actress
721 Hillary Swank -400
722 Annette Benning +250
723 Imelda Staunton +1500
724 Kate Winslett +3000
725 Catalina Sandino Moreno +4500

Best Adapted Screenplay
791 Sideways -1000
792 Million Dollar Baby +450
793 Finding Neverland +2000
794 The Motorcycle Diaries +4000
795 Before Sunset +4000

Best Animated Film
771 The Incredibles -1000
772 Shrek 2 +550
773 Shark Tale +2000

Best Director
731 Martin Scorcese -125
732 Clint Eastwood +100
733 Alexander Payne +2000
734 Taylor Hackford +6000
735 Mike Leigh +6000

Best Documentary Feature
831 Super Size Me +100
832 Born into Brothels +150
833 The Story of the Weeping Camel +350
834 Tupac Resurrection +1800
835 Twist of Faith +1800

Best Film Editing
841 Aviator -150
842 Million Dollar Baby +200
843 Ray +500
844 Finding Neverland +1000
845 Collateral +2000

Best Foreign Film
761 The Sea Inside -300
762 The Chorus +400
763 Yesterday +600
764 Downfall +800
765 As It is In Heaven +1500

Best Original Score
851 Finding Neverland -250
852 The Passion of the Christ +300
853 Lemony Snicket +800
854 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban +1200
855 The Village +1200

Best Original Screenplay
781 The Aviator +125
782 Hotel Rwanda +500
783 Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind -110
784 The Incredibles +4000
785 Vera Drake +1200

Best Original Song
861 Learn to Be Lonely (The Phantom of the Opera) +100
862 Believe (The Polar Express) +300
863 Accidentally in Love (Shrek 2) +200
864 Al Otro Lado del Rio (The Motorcycle Diaries) +400
865 Look to Your Path (The Chorus) +600

Best Picture
701 The Aviator -180
702 Million Dollar Baby +190
703 Sideways +500
704 Ray +2500
705 Finding Neverland +4000

Best Supporting Actor
741 Thomas Haden Church +250
742 Morgan Freeman -200
743 Clive Owen +400
744 Jamie Foxx +2500
745 Alan Alda +2000

Best Supporting Actress
751 Virginia Madsen +300
752 Cate Blanchett -180
753 Natalie Portman +300
754 Laura Linney +2000
755 Sophie Okonedo +2500

[rusty JEDI]

Why is foxx such a massive favourite? Im pretty sure he didnt win a golden globe.

rJ

[pshreck]

pretty sure your wrong...

although Ill repeat, I can't believe Leos performance as Howard Hughes isn't making this a tighter race. Any who saw The Aviator disagree?

[andyfox]

He did win a Golden Globe. People loved Ray Charles and the performance/impersonation was spot on. I think Charles having passed on this year is a plus for Foxx. Plus he did good work in Collateral, so it seems like "his" year.

[rusty JEDI]

[ QUOTE ]
pretty sure your wrong...

although Ill repeat, I can't believe Leos performance as Howard Hughes isn't making this a tighter race. Any who saw The Aviator disagree?

[/ QUOTE ]


I stand corrected.

rJ

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Best Actor
101 Jamie Foxx -2235


[/ QUOTE ]
I'm boring but Foxx is such a sure-victory for this category.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you like Foxx, the line is -1000 at Olympic.

[mmbt0ne]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
pretty sure your wrong...

although Ill repeat, I can't believe Leos performance as Howard Hughes isn't making this a tighter race. Any who saw The Aviator disagree?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that Leo might be a +EV bet at those odds, but I just think that Foxx is the smartest one to bet on.

[Mike Gallo]

Do you really bet on this?

Please do not take that as passing judgement. I say that because the owner of my company bet the coin toss yesterday. I only know this because I overhead him telling someone that he lost and if he knew a kid would toss it, he would not have made the bet.

I have not seen one of the films mentioned, so I offer nothing useful to this post.

[sublime]

. I only know this because I overhead him telling someone that he lost and if he knew a kid would toss it, he would not have made the bet.

sad that this man is upper management

[Clarkmeister]

"Do you really bet on this?"

I do if John Cole tells me there are +EV bets to be made.

[Mike Gallo]

sad that this man is upper management

I consider it even sadder that he owns the business. He did not say this on the floor, he answered his cell phone at the end of the day during a quasi meeting and I eavesdropped on the conversation.

[sublime]

I consider it even sadder that he owns the business

uggh, misread that part. is he otherwise intelligent?

[Mike Gallo]

uggh, misread that part. is he otherwise intelligent?

When he isnt partying his ass off. He made the bet in a drunken stupor from what I could understand of the conversation. He made it as something fun, not to actually try and win.

[Mike Gallo]

[ QUOTE ]
"Do you really bet on this?"

I do if John Cole tells me there are +EV bets to be made.

[/ QUOTE ]

I gotcha.

[sublime]

He made it as something fun, not to actually try and win.

yeah, but he said he wouldnt have done it if he knew a kid was gonna toss. weird.

[Mike Gallo]

yeah, but he said he wouldnt have done it if he knew a kid was gonna toss. weird.

You have to know the owner, he has the typical Alpha male quality. He demonstrates a lot of strange behavior.

[pshreck]

By the way, how does this kid get the job of flipping the coin, and no one ever taught him that you actually have to use your thumb to flip a coin. I wanted to slap him across the face.

[WillMagic]

I think Owen is a superb bet at +697 - he did win the Golden Globes, and having seen his performance, it is as deserving as Freeman's or Church's. I think that's the best bet of the entire group.

Swank is probably a good bet at -361.

Other than that, it really looks to me like the sites are giving the Aviator too much credit and Million Dollar Baby too little.

Will

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
"Do you really bet on this?"

I do if John Cole tells me there are +EV bets to be made.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who is John Cole?

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't believe Leos performance as Howard Hughes isn't making this a tighter race. Any who saw The Aviator disagree?

[/ QUOTE ]
I absalutely disagree! I just watched The Aviator tonight, and I really don't understand the hype. I really don't get how this film was nominated for best picture (especially with a film like Hotel Rwanda not getting a bid).

I think that while Leo's performance was clearly the best of his career, it was mediocre at best.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
Who is John Cole?

[/ QUOTE ]

The world's greatest expert on all things involving film and literature.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Who is John Cole?

[/ QUOTE ]

The world's greatest expert on all things involving film and literature.

[/ QUOTE ]

Where did he go?

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
(especially with a film like Hotel Rwanda not getting a bid).

[/ QUOTE ]

it really is terrible that this film did not get a nomination.

[CCass]

My best bets to win:

Jamie Foxx
Hilary Swank
Clint Eastwood
Million Dollar Baby
Morgan Freeman
Natalie Portman

Eastwood recently won Best Director award from the DGA (Director's Guild of America). For the past several years, the DGA winner has been a good predictor of the Oscar winner.

[RogerZBT]

[ QUOTE ]
That is crazy. After watching The Aviator, I actually think Leo should have a shot. I know nothing about how it works but I would normally figure Leo at 1 in 11 odds would be a great bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Most of the people I know who have seen it found Leo to be ok early in the movie, but very unbelievable as the older Howard Hughes.

Even getting 11-1, I wouldn't bet on Leo. I think at this point, the chance of anyone but Jamie Foxx winning is more theoretical than realistically possible.

[crash]

The early line this year had tails at a 5 to 6 favorite. Then all the money moved the line to heads. I tried to middle it and got slaughtered.

[Oski]

Pinnicle posted lines for a few hours on the date of the AFC/NFC finals:

If I can recall correctly, Jamie Foxx was only -800. Next time the lines were up (next day) Foxx was at -1600.

[Sporky]

looks like you're getting good odds on clive owen for supporting actor. he blew me away in closer. morgan freeman always acts great and he never seems to win. i thought jamie foxx did a good job in collateral but not award worthy. clive owen might be worth looking into.

[Sporky]

[ QUOTE ]
Best Achievement in Cinematography
811 The Aviator -200
812 The Passion of the Christ +350
813 The Phantom of the Opera +600
814 A Very Long Engagement +1200
815 The House of Flying Daggers +1000

[/ QUOTE ]

i've only seen passion and a very long engagement from this section...but i thought the cinematography of a very long engagement was ridiculous (that's good).

[Mano]

102 Leonardo di Caprio +1054

I could see the Aviator sweeping through many of the Oscars, and di Caprio riding on it's momentum. It is the type of film the academy seems to like to reward.

[Gabe]

I like 874.

[Clarkmeister]

Bump in case John Cole is around.

[CCass]

[ QUOTE ]
Bump in case John Cole is around.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clark,

Why is John Cole's opinion so much better than everybody else's? Does he have insider info?

Maybe El D could make a prop bet based on John's info. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[John Cole]

Clark,

God, I barely know what's nominated this year, but it looks like the usual Hollywood stuff--three biopics, a boxing movie, and a buddy film. Best long, longshot--Johnny Depp. Next best longshot--Natalie Portman. But not like the farm kind of longshots.

[patrick dicaprio]

you can write these in stone:

jamie foxx
imelda staunton
clint eastwood
million dollar baby
morgan freeman
natalie portman

where can you bet??

Pat

[eric5148]

Bumping this thread because I made a spreadsheet of odds for different sportsbooks on the Oscars.

I know nothing about showbusiness, and I haven't even seen any of these movies. But I see huge differences in the lines, which means you might be able to do some crazy hedging. So if anyone has some more insight as to what to bet on, please let me know.

http://premium1.uploadit.org/eric5148//Oscars.jpg

[Bill Murphy]

Rush Limbaugh et al, ranting about MDB, dropping spoilers, etc, is the best thing that coulda happened to the film, Oscarwise. This is going to be the Blue States revenge, such as it is.

The only category where MDB isn't a clear fave is Actor, and +2147 is well worth throwing a yard at. I esp. love Picture &amp; Director as slight dogs. Swank &amp; Freeman are also good value as small faves.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
Bumping this thread because I made a spreadsheet of odds for different sportsbooks on the Oscars.

I know nothing about showbusiness, and I haven't even seen any of these movies. But I see huge differences in the lines, which means you might be able to do some crazy hedging. So if anyone has some more insight as to what to bet on, please let me know.

http://premium1.uploadit.org/eric5148//Oscars.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

Bump for results.

[CCass]

[ QUOTE ]
My best bets to win:

Jamie Foxx
Hilary Swank
Clint Eastwood
Million Dollar Baby
Morgan Freeman
Natalie Portman

Eastwood recently won Best Director award from the DGA (Director's Guild of America). For the past several years, the DGA winner has been a good predictor of the Oscar winner.

[/ QUOTE ]

I got 5 out of 6, I should have known better than to go with Portman.

[andyfox]

Good calls.

I haven't heard Limbaugh on the movie. He is upset at the same thing Medved is ranting about, the ending? Isn't Eastwood a staunch Republican?

[eric5148]

W00T! $516.78 profit!

I picked the winners in 15 categories, and broke even with a hedge on Eastwood for Director.

Thanks Clark for starting this thread. I don't think I ever would have thought about betting the Oscars if it wasn't for you.