Problem: Raised flop, Ace on board, checked to you on Button

[AtticusFinch]

I'll preface this by saying that I know that bluffing is very rarely correct on PP.

Consider the following general situation. You're on the button, blinds at 25/50. Raised to 150, you call with some reasonable but aceless hand. SB Folds, BB calls. There are 3 people in the pot.

Flop is A-x-x. Rainbow, no obvious straights. Pot is 475. It's checked to you.

Is this a good bluffing opportunity? If you bet half the pot, you only need the other two to fold over 1/3 of the time to be +EV (You're getting 2/1 odds), assuming none of your outs hit. If you have reasonable outs, you need even less.

Still, 240 chips is likely to be a non-trivial portion of your stack, and blowing that much could seriously hurt your chances of finishing ITM.

I guess it boils down to:
1) how often can you expect the other two guys to fold
2) If 1 is > 33%, is your edge enough to make this play +$EV, not just +EV?

If the answer is no, is there a threshold for blind size or stack percentage where this becomes a good play? How about in a heads-up pot?

Thanks in advance.

[AtticusFinch]

A friend and I had a big argument over this one. I'd love to hear any input even if it's totally obvious and I'm a moron for asking. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[snapfc01]

i don't like to bet out here b/c most likely you will have someone who is slowplaying a big hand when they raise preflop then check. most players will bet out on any flop after they have made a decent preflop raise... and when they don't is usually b/c they have a big hand... and if anyone else hit big they are most likely going to check to the man who raised preflop in hopes of trapping the man who raised. besides... if it was a decent raise preflop what are you holding that would make you call? KQs... KJs.... pretty weak call if you ask me

[AtticusFinch]

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if it was a decent raise preflop what are you holding that would make you call? KQs... KJs.... pretty weak call if you ask me

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, but PP is full of pretty weak players /images/graemlins/wink.gif Personally, the only aceless hand *I* might hold here would probably be TT. (I'd reraise the other big pairs.)

[AA suited]

is this a 10+1 or 50+5? and how big are the stacks?

i can see in 10+1, middle/low/pocket pair will call you to the river.

50+5: if someone has mid/low/pocket pair, he'll check/raise just to see if you actually have the ace.

so your bluff will probably work if they dont have any piece of the board.

[snapfc01]

just b/c you are playing against a lot of weak players you're gonna play weak. the pps are about the only thing i could see being a decent call

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
just b/c you are playing against a lot of weak players you're gonna play weak. the pps are about the only thing i could see being a decent call

[/ QUOTE ]

Read my response again. I agreed with you. It's just a hypothetical. In fact, I'd rarely call with a big PP, I'd reraise.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll preface this by saying that I know that bluffing is very rarely correct on PP.

[/ QUOTE ]

THAT IS THE UNDERSTATEMENT OF THE WEEK.

I love posts that state some sort of general rule, and then continue to ask the question, so when do I break this rule?

In general, I do not suggest a pure bluff in this scenario. If you've matched middle pair, or you're sitting on a pocket pair, or you've got a flush draw, or you've got a backdoor flush draw and a gutshot str8 draw, making this more of a semi-bluff, now we're talking.

The reason being, as I know you know from your previous posts, that effectively maximizing FE in middle play and bubble play is what is going to bring you to the promised land.

There is probably more bluffing going on at the higher levels, like the 215s, but I think very straight forward poker will put you ITM nearly 40% or better, so why risk it?