10-25 AA hand

[mikech]

live game at borgata, tight mp opens for $75 (you've seen him take no more than a handful of flops in 3 or 4 hrs, although he did checkraise all-in with an oesfd about an hr earlier), folded to you in the co and you reraise to $200 straight with red aces, he calls. you each have ~$2500. flop is K-T-4 two diamonds, he checks, you bet $300, he makes it $800 total. what do you do?

[WorldBeater]

Fold. The betting patterns of the player you described makes this an easy laydown IMO.

[iceman5]

What makes you think he doesnt have AK? Is $75 his standard raise? Would he only raise that much with KK?

[AEKDBet]

I think he thinks his AK is good and you took a stab with QQ. Call his bet, hopefully he fires on the turn. If it isn't a
King I'd go all in and put him into the tank.

[lapoker17]

Good players aren't checkraising there with AK or any one pair hand unless they're making a play. This guy does not sound like he makes playe. His C/R all in with OESFD was probably the correct play even for a tight player. That said, if he's CRing with KK, that's a bad play too, but whatever. Folding is OK.

There is a chance, however that he has QJ Diamonds - Something to think about.

[AEKDBet]

If he is not check raising with AK, then the range of range he would hold certainly put you behind. (a set, OESFD)

[lapoker17]

Uh, yeah, I said folding was OK.

[AZK]

a nit doesn't open for 75 with QJs and then call 125 with it....eh?

[etizzle]

he will only call an all in with a better hand unless he is pretty terrible

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
What makes you think he doesnt have AK? Is $75 his standard raise? Would he only raise that much with KK?

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems very unlikely given the description of the villain. The Aces are going to be behind here way too often for me to want to commit the rest of my rather large stack.

SpaceAce

[cero_z]

Hi mike,

Generally, given your description of events, I fold on the turn. Against someone who is this tight but inexperienced, I like to re-raise to 1300. AK tends to shrivel up under this pressure, so if he's not shrivelling, you had better start. But this guy may be too good for that play--I don't know.

But you really screwed up by making such a small re-raise pre-flop. It's slightly better if you're regularly testing folks with re-raises like this, but even if you are, this guy knows you won't mess around with him, given his extreme tightness. So, he knows you have a very big hand, and if he's holding KK, it can only be AA, right? With QQ vs. this dude, you either call, or raise more, right?

So, I'd raise it to about 325. This seems big, but most folks still can't release KK in this spot, and it gives it a little "I'm trying to push you out" flava. As for playing for set value, with 2500 behind, he can only be marginally profitable overall, if he puts in 325 pre-flop. That's how I look at it.

Keep in mind that it's very hard to get paid off with AA by a very tight player. If you want to try to get his stack with it, you have to take a gamble: risk getting very little, by playing it very fast, or risk him busting you, by playing it very slow. Playing it at middle speed, as you did, is the least attractive of the choices, IMO.

EDIT: The above advice is actually pretty terrible, now that I think about it--so terrible that I was going to bed, and had to get up and post this, along with a better response below. What sort of poker nerd am I?

[cero_z]

OK,

Sometimes I forget to just put myself in your shoes, and "play" the hand in my mind. Now I'll try.

The pre-flop raise is too small, but what's done is done.

On the flop, I think, "Hmmm... K T x, 2 diamonds, I have the Ad. I was planning on eventually getting my whole stack in when he raised pre-flop, but this flop is not one where I want to do that. There's too good a chance that this flop either setted him (KK, mayyyyyybe TT), or will shut him down (QQ/JJ). My best hope is AK, but I consider that to be not too likely. I'm going to try to play a "small" pot, which will not really be that small, but hopefully, it will end up being less than 5000.

When he checks the flop, I check behind him. There is virtually no risk in giving a free card: he has 2 outs if he's behind. Hopefully, a medium or smaller diamond hits the turn, or the board pairs. I'll like all of these cards--even a King won't scare me too much, since it'd be fairly unlikely for him to hold one of the last 2 AND have called my re-raise with AK. If this (good card)happens, and he bets (probably 200-400), I will raise it 500 more. This will almost definitely freeze him up if it does not win the pot right there, and hopefully, I'll get the chance to check behind him on the river (unless it goes runner-runner diamonds, or an Ace hits, of course). If he re-raises me on the turn, I'm almost certainly done with the hand.

If one of the above cards (med. diamond, board pair) hits the turn, and he checks, I will check again. Now he may be down to 1 out, and checking twice may have convinced him to pay off a small amount with QQ, or a medium amount with (an oddly played) AK, on the river.

Finally, I will be verrrry cautious if a Q or J hits the turn or river. If he bets one of those cards on the turn, I'll give serious thought to dumping it, since he could have helped, OR he could've checked a set on the flop. But, I checked behind on the flop partially to enable myself to call him twice without getting my whole stack in. If he makes "value-looking" bets on the turn and/or river, I'll have to consider that he may think AK is good, and thus I'll call him--hopefully, about 700-900 total.

There; I'm happy with that plan. Now, what do you think?

[etizzle]

this analysis is perfect. What makes this hand interesting is that the original raiser's range of hands are pretty narrow. Thus this flop will either have made his hand worthless (QQ JJ), or he flopped a set.

Either way, cero's line loses the least from KK and TT and wins the most from QQ and JJ.

You could perhaps win more from AK playing it a little faster, but all in all this is the way to play it.


Nice post cero.

[TStoneMBD]

im a fan of checking behind on this flop. after you bet however, i think you need to release this. its more likely that he has a hand like KK or TT than a hand like AK or QJ. He will be more inclined to have KK or TT with the line he took.

[Zebdula]

I think it depends on the villian's perception of you. I also think because your re-raise (pre flop) was not enough and the way he played the hand, the best hand he had was probably AK or oesfd. He is getting 2-1 pot odds before the flop to call your re raise, and he is already putting you on 10 10 JJ QQ KK AA AK. If you were holding QQ or JJ, betting the flop would be your best option. You should have checked behind him as someone else suggested. Once you bet the flop - He has got to put you on JJ, QQ, Maybe AK. In his mind you would certainly check AA, KK, or 10 10 behind him. You would be most afraid of a smooth call after you bet this flop. If he has AK he figures the best you have is 2 outs or the same hand. If he has a set, he has got to figure he has you smoked with at best 2 outs.
IF he sees you as someone who is going to call him all the way down with aces, then he had you beat. But why risk driving you out with such a strong hand and a strong read on yours? If the turn woulda been a diamond jack queen or ace, it woulda been real interesting =) He either saw you as capable of folding AK or AA there, or saw you as someone who would pay your whole stack off to his set.

[knifeandfork]

nice post zeb, i think hero's image is definitely super important what was it? Is the villain likely to put you on AK (i think so)? is he using his obviously tight image to semibluff you with a "worse" hand? tough hand and i like cero's line part two alot.if villain puts you on AK im not sure what that means though, image is everything in this hand imho. id be curious to know. think harrington and tomko (my guess as to two world class tight players) at 10-25 i think even the rocks have to have some moves. keeping it small sounds good.
VI,
jason

[aggie]

Very interesting thread. these are the thought pravoking threads that make 2plus2 worthwhile. I agree with most of the advice given. The way you played it, fold. If you can go back and play it again, raise more and then play the way cero suggested.

I think the key point to emphasise is that by not raising more pre-flop, you made this hand much more difficult to play.

[Usagi_yo]

I'm moving all in with the best hand. Thats for sure.

[mikech]

hi cero, thanks for breaking down the hand for me so clearly. in reality, i was the tight-ass mp, and i held KK; co called my c/r, called my turn push, and disgustedly showed his aces when i flipped over my kings. some of the regulars at the table commented privately on how terrible his call was (one said to me, "i can't believe he called $1500 all-in with one-pair, i wouldn't have paid you off 50 lousy bucks"), which got me to wondering: how much would i have lost in his place? i don't believe i would've gotten stacked off, since if i didn't fold to the flop c/r i almost certainly fold to the turn push, but your suggestion of checking behind on the flop is great. that would allow me to see the most streets (and hopefully my opponent's cards) at the least expense; i'm either way ahead or way behind, so i can afford to proceed passively and play a smaller pot.

another situation i wondered about was: what if the flop came all low cards? how much would i have lost with my kings? the co was definitely one of the soft spots in the game, but he was a calling station, not a maniac. he would cold-call $100+ open-raises with suspect hands, but i didn't see him reraise much at all, so when he made it $200 preflop i put him on QQ-AA, perhaps AKs. if the flop came all rags and he continued betting heavy i would've had some tough decisions to make.

[amoeba]

interesting post.

I wonder why you did not bet that flop with the nuts?

[cero_z]

Hi mike,

The guy who said he wouldn't have lost 50 bucks with AA and that flop is ridiculous. My whole plan assumes that I'm often going to the river with the hand, and just tries to lose the least when behind, and win the most when ahead. In the case where the guy flopped a set, "the least" is probably about 900 more, if he (you) plays it well. I love these jokers who are so confident in their reads that they'll lay down AA, when they're not actually in the pot.

If the flop came all low cards, you would've been in trouble, I'm guessing. The problem then is that even though the guy obviously loves his hand, he sucks, so you're not sure if he'd love a pair of Jacks the same as Rockets in that spot. Scary.

Let me tell you a story that has some similarities to your situation, not for discussion so much as for entertainment, hopefully.

I'm in a 5-10 NL 5-handed home game, with 2 extremely terrible players. On my right is the kind of guy who bets 200 into a 40 dollar pot with KJ, when the flop comes K Q 9, to "protect my hand". Anyway, this guy raises to 50 UTG, which he'll do with 2 big cards or any pair. I have QQ, and make it 150, and when it's folded back to him, he raises me 100 more. Sound familiar? OK; I call, and the flop comes 8 6 3r. I see that he loves his hand. He bets 200. I call. Turn is a T, which I don't like, and he still loves his hand. He bets 400. We each have about 3000 more, and I know that this guy could have some hands that I can beat, but I ultimately decide to find a spot where I'm sure against this player, and I fold. He shows me the other 2 Queens, so I won't think he was bluffing.

A little while later, this guy opens UTG for 300! Yep; 15 in the pot, 300 to go. I'm next with JJ. The funny thing is, because his raise was SO large, I'm almost positive I have the best hand (I put him on AK, which he's recently had snapped, and he believes it's 'cause he didn't bet enough). But, I know there will be opportunities where I have this guy drawing dead, so I fold.

The other mega-fish calls from the button. The flop comes J 6 2 r. Oops. UTG bets 300, button calls. Turn is another 6. UTG bets 500; I'm feeling very sick. Button raises to 1300!

UTG goes into the tank. He thinks and thinks, and finally shows me his hand, and says, "I don't have that much, but I just don't believe he does, either." He is holding up AhTh, no pair/no draw, and contemplating a call. He calls.

River card is the case Jack. I think this would've been my spot. UTG checks, the button goes all-in for his last 700, and UTG calls quickly. Final board is J 6 2 6 J, and the button has AcKc. They split the pot. Laughs all around, while I silently and invisibly vomit.

[turnipmonster]

best post I've read in a long time.