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View Full Version : David Sklansky Wrong?


KeyToTheMint
02-07-2005, 09:02 PM
Can someone explain this excerpt for me:

" For instance, suppose you're an 8-1 underdog and the pot of- fers 7-1. (I disregard future-round bets for the purpose of this discussion.) Say someone bet $10 into a $60 pot. You would now fold and save $10. But you really didn't save the full $10. The intuitive player might call in this spot and cost himself $10 seven out of eight times. However, he gains $70 the one out of eight times that he makes his hand. His bad play only costs an average of $1.25, which isn't much. "

I'm certainly not a math wiz but isn't the intuitive player
missing his draw 8 times for a loss of -80 and hitting
his hand once for +70? Hence he's losing 10 dollars for
9 plays, bringing the loss to 1.11 per play.

footnote: the excerpt is from Getting The Best of It
posted on this site.

MelchyBeau
02-07-2005, 09:38 PM
10/8 = 1.25.

ok I see where your mistake is. He makes his hand once, and misses 7 times.

Melch

BruceZ
02-08-2005, 11:53 AM
[ QUOTE ]
10/8 = 1.25.

ok I see where your mistake is. He makes his hand once, and misses 7 times.

Melch

[/ QUOTE ]

He's an 8-1 underdog, so out of 9 hands he makes his hand once and loses 8 times, costing him 10/9 = $1.11 per hand. You and Sklansky are both wrong, and KeyToTheMint is right.

reubenf
02-08-2005, 02:53 PM
Yeah, he switched between 8-1 and 7-1 underdog sometime in the example, and I guess his math included parts from both.