TT in EP on the bubble

[nyc999]

Entire table was semi-tight, wondering is this is an easy push/fold...

100/200 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 9328727) - Sun Feb 06 14:06:23 EST 2005
Table Table 17606 (Real Money) -- Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 3: Teewaddy (1533)
Seat 4: wormy41 (2860)
Seat 7: gowise (1310)
Seat 8: hero (1495)
Seat 10: Killer_Bee (802)
Teewaddy posts small blind (50)
wormy41 posts big blind (100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to hero [ Th, Td ]
gowise folds.
hero raises (240) to 240
Killer_Bee folds.
Teewaddy calls (190)
wormy41 calls (140)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 7s, 2h, 6h ]
Teewaddy bets (1293)
Teewaddy is all-In.
wormy41 folds.
hero...

[ericlambi]

CALLS

[willie]

yup, definitely calls.

[SuitedSixes]

I would push this, and then realize that I made a huge mistake and wish that I had taken more time to think about it. I can think of lots of hands that you are behind, and a few others that you are only slightly ahead of.

You made a decent sized pre-flop raise and got called. What hands would call a 400 raise? Next, you get an all-in on a non-A or K flop. I think your best case scenario is 99, but that is about it. I smell JJ or QQ. You still have plenty of chips (1255) with lots of poker left to play, fold and move on. I really think this laydown is one of those things that seperates the gamblers from the poker players.

[GauchoFish]

muck quickly, so you don't have time to talk yourself into calling

[ChrisV]

Call. RARELY this will be JJ or QQ, but I would not just call with those hands out of position 5 handed and I doubt many players would. He will almost certainly not hold a set or AA because he would have checked the flop. Most likely hand is a double-overcard flush draw, say AJhh or KJhh. You have a comfortable call against those hands given the pot odds. Also very likely is 88 or 99 and possibly A7 or 89 suited, all of which you smash.

Edit: frankly, I rate 55 and 44 more likely than QQ and JJ here.

[ChrisV]

The preflop raise was quite weak - 240, not 400.

What are these "lots of hands" you can think of that you're behind? So far you've said QQ and JJ. What other hands randomly slam in an almost double-pot-sized allin on a rags flop? It doesn't really look like a bet that wants a call...

[ArturiusX]

A set would be slowplayed, so I'd probably worry about JJ, but not enough to not warrant the call.

If you think its a weak table (not neccesarily the guy who made the all-in, the other guys could be solid), its probably not worth the risk, as you have chips and could probably outsmart them later.

If you're playing against some solid players, I'd call it. But I don't think either decision is a bad one.

[1C5]

Great thread, 2 good players and one says fold and one call. That is what I like about this forum, good discussion will be sure to follow...

[SuitedSixes]

You're right, I meant to change "lots of hands," and didn't. I guess the better question is what would go all-in here? Do you want to call those hands at this point? I'm not saying that we're playing TT for set value only, but I am not sure what I could put villain on that I would be comfortable calling. I don't think a set is out of the question, especially with two hearts on the board.

For me this is more stack size, and level specific than anything. I just don't think this is the time to gamble.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
A set would be slowplayed,

[/ QUOTE ]
With two hearts on the board?

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess the better question is what would go all-in here? Do you want to call those hands at this point?

[/ QUOTE ]

Plausible hands are A7, 98 suited, 88, 99, double-overcard flush draws. Less plausible, but possible, are other 7's, 44, 55 and various nutcase hands. I want to call all the above hands according to the ICM (double overcard flush draws are very close - ICM wants me to have 51.04% equity to break even and against a DOFD i have 51.3%. Other hands have huge overlays though, they're really what I'm after.).

I'm not convinced moving in with a set would be the right move here, because they'll bet allin with a double-overcard flush draw if checked to and most likely call allin if you bet, so I don't think it makes any difference. Because I don't think you're losing flush draws here, I would rather check and see if I can get drawing-dead hands like AK to put in a bet or check and turn top pair. Anyway, I can't be bothered with the ICM analysis but I think you most likely want the rest of their stack in here as you're a 75% favourite.

As a general rule, if I'm not convinced moving straight in with a set is the right move, I think it's close to impossible the slow playing monkeys on Party will be convinced. I think a set is a fair bit smaller possibility than you think. This bet smells to me of somebody trying to protect a weak hand.

[Scuba Chuck]

Not much talk here about your preflop bet. Hopefully you'll recognize next time that this is a very good hand to just push, or pot commit yourself next time.

Post flop, I agree with ChrisV. Likely push hands by villain are A7, 89, the flush draw, even perhaps two live cards.

If you folded, I think you folded the best hand at this point.

[Mr_J]

I was thinking this too. Someone could definately be paranoid even though we are shorthanded here. If he wanted to get rid of a potential flush draw, he has to push here right? JJ+ will occasionally appear, but they are much more likely to push PF.

"Most likely hand is a double-overcard flush draw, say AJhh or KJhh. You have a comfortable call against those hands given the pot odds. Also very likely is 88 or 99 and possibly A7 or 89 suited, all of which you smash."

Yep. I'm thinking he's more likely got a flush draw than a set trying to get rid of any flush draws. The pot is large and he wants it.

I'm not sure about 88-99, I think alot of players would push back with these rather than calling. Seems that an 88-99 might push on this flop though.

I don't think 89 is a chance either. It wouldn't knock me over though.

I think Ax will appear alot, often with pairing the x, or Ax hearts. Limping in says he wants to see the flop. What do people like to see flops with? Overcards, suited overcards, Ax and a low maybe mid PP.

AA is a possibility, looking to trap. He sees the flop and gets scared so pushes.

I think you are ahead enough of the time to call this.

[Mr_J]

"I'm not convinced moving in with a set would be the right move here"

Well it's shorthanded, so it's obviously less likely someone has a flush draw than if it was 10 handed. I'd like to hear how the experienced players treat flush draws in shorthanded games, esp when there's only 2 or 3 in the pot. Do you still bet to give incorrect odds (which in this case is a push), or do you accept a bit of risk, hoping to milk them?

[Mr_J]

"that this is a very good hand to just push"

He has 15x BB. I'd just raise.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
"that this is a very good hand to just push"

He has 15x BB. I'd just raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I respect that opinion. That's what he did, and was called. Furthermore, you were very reluctant in your response to give an opinion on how much to raise. Let's say he raised to 400. Less than 1/3 of his stack.

What does hero do if he is pushed allin by Wormy41? I would think that Wormy would do this with a hand like AJ+, and 88+. But would more likely fold except to AK, JJ+.

That's why I prefer the TT push here. For a serious number of other hands, like A9, for example, I think a simple raise is appropriate.

[ilya]

This is a weird way for him to play a set on the flop and a weird way for him to play AA-QQ preflop. I think his most likely holdings are 88-99/JJ/flushdraw/flush+str8 draw/OESD/pair&draw combo...seems like a call to me.

I think you should raise more preflop. 350 or 400.

[Mr_J]

Yep I understand why you'd push. You don't wanna raise and then be reraised.

A 3x raise will steal the blinds nearly as well as a 4x raise. The larger raise might also encourage wormy to push back a little bit more, since it could look like you do't want to be called.

The OP said the table was semi-tight, so I'm thinking any hands he would push back with he'd will probally call your push with anyway. If he calls the 3x raise, you just have to hope for a friendly flop (no overcards, or hopefully an ace with a T)

[Scuba Chuck]

Maybe I'm different, but I don't like to see the flop. I want to keep the competition at bay, specifically the other big stacks.

I'm sure we're both talking the same language. But I don't generally follow the Aleo guide with regards to the 3x BB rule if it's less than 40% of your stack. I only bet less if I won't push if I am reraised. If I intend to be allin, I bet that much, or enough to be pot committed.

[nyc999]

Thanks for all the input.

I realize I had made a weak pf raise, can't recall why I did, I had been regularly stealing blinds with 2.5x raises. Because I had been taking the blinds with these raises and I had 15x the BB, I didn't think a push was necessary (caveat: I'm a limit player -- I've just recently started playing SNGs).

Anyway, I thought long and hard and ended up calling. Villain showed KK and I'm out in 5th.

This leads me to another question -- in bubble situations, should I be more/less aggressive in EP?

[ericlambi]

Don't forget A7.