a turn decision

[Steve Giufre]

I dont have the Hand History so I have to write it out. Party 15-30. I have Q /images/graemlins/club.gif10 /images/graemlins/club.gif in the cutoff and open raise. Its folded to an unknown in the BB who calls.

Flop: 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

He checks, I bet, he calls.

Turn: 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

He checks. Who likes betting and who likes taking a free card without any player info?

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont have the Hand History so I have to write it out. Party 15-30. I have Q /images/graemlins/club.gif10 /images/graemlins/club.gif in the cutoff and open raise. Its folded to an unknown in the BB who calls.

Flop: 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

He checks, I bet, he calls.

Turn: 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

He checks. Who likes betting and who likes taking a free card without any player info?

[/ QUOTE ]

Tough one. I'd lean toward betting because I think there are hands that he'll fold here, like gutshots and maybe something like K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T, even though the risk of a check-raise is somewhat high. Your hand also has just a tiny bit of showdown value depending on how loose he's defending. If I'd been stealing a lot or my table image was poor, then I'd check.

[tipperdog]

I don't know squat (as I'm often reminded on these boards), but I think you've got to follow this up with a bet here:

1. BB has done nothing but respond to your play. He might easily drop a low pair or overcards here (KJ, AT)--cards which currently beat you.

2. If you check here (showing weakness), BB is far more likely to call a river bet with a weak hand.

Heads up (especially against a passive blind), I don't think you can slow down now. Bet it out and hope for a fold.

[skp]

If you had AJ and got checkraised, you wouldn't like it but it is mitigated by the fact that if you judge you are beat and fold, you probably only had 6 outs. Alternatively, if you decide to tough it out, you can also call on the river with your good ace.

On the QT hand, getting raised really sucks as you might have a 10 outer and can't fold as the pot has 12.5 small bets. But if you call and miss, it's pretty damn hard to call again on the river with Queen high. Nothing like catching your opponent bluffing with K2 and see him take the pot.

Your opponent's flop call might have been made with a wide range of hands - some of which he might fold if you bet. Nevertheless, I probably take the freebie here.

Used to be that in these spots, I would also keep an eye out for a River Ace. It should be a great bluff card for you on the river if you check the turn. These days, that "ostensible out" bluff doesn't seem to work at all but this is based on anecdotal experience. I still think that bluffing on an ace would be a good move here.

All of the above could go out the window depending on table image etc as Nate said.

[fsuplayer]

just curious steve, are you calling a CR here if you did bet?

i have been in this situation alot (w overs and a gutshot HU facing a turn bet), and waiver between calling and folding.

[stoxtrader]

this is about as close as it gets with no player info. I rely so much on my notes in these situations that i'll try and fake my way through a default analysis.

at this point, the pot has 6.67 SB in it, so your bet needs to fold a better hand only 1 in 3 times here to be profitable, but if he c/r you, there will now be 6.67 BBB in the pot and with about a 4.5-1 shot to improve you have to call.

if you check behind on the turn, most 15 players will fire on the river regardless of the board and what they hold - you cant call anything unimproved.

The more i think about it, the more I like checking behind on the turn when you have something that can withstand a bluff. The checkraise is expensive, but the value of winning the pot outright on the turn + your chances to improve IF you are c/r make betting the turn the more profitable play I think.

[TStoneMBD]

close decision. without reads each play is neutral ev in my opinion. i would choose the action that closely resembles what image you want to present, and forget about maximizing ev for this hand.

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
without any player info?

[/ QUOTE ]

Just go with your instinct. It doesn't get enough credit and is usually the right choice.

[tpir90036]

[ QUOTE ]
The more i think about it, te more I like checking behind on the turn when you have something that can withstand a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a very good point. Against someone who might take a stab... I would much rather check behind with a big Ace so that I at least have a better bluff snapper unimproved.

[nykenny]

i also like checking behind. the board on the turn offers too many c/r bluff opportunities and it's relative "safe" to a peeler. so the chance of getting called by Kx, Ax is high, as is the chance of getting c/r bluffed.

Kenny

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
The checkraise is expensive, but the value of winning the pot outright on the turn + your chances to improve IF you are c/r make betting the turn the more profitable play I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to be a chronic turn check-behinder but I'm betting more now and my feel is that I'm winning more bets as a result. There's something to be said for checking a hand with outs, but there's also something to be said for having more semibluffing potential when you *do* have a hand with outs.

It's also worth remembering that checking behind too frequently creates some meta-game problems, as your opponents will be correct to call much looser on the flop as a result.

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
at this point, the pot has 6.67 SB in it, so your bet needs to fold a better hand only 1 in 3 times here to be profitable, but if he c/r you, there will now be 6.67 BBB in the pot and with about a 4.5-1 shot to improve you have to call.


[/ QUOTE ]


thx. exactly what i was looking for.

[James282]

I would definitely bet. The five is a blank as far as you are concerned. People in this game very often make noise on the flop with a pair. You can't call a bet on the river unimproved, so I would give him a chance to fold. And you have enough to call if he does checkraise, so I wouldn't worry about it.
-James

[Steve Giufre]

I'm glad I posted this, I got some great responses from you guys. OK so I decided to bet, thinking it was very close like a lot of you said. More than anything I wanted to give him a chance to fold A or K high, and I think most players will usually put some action in on the flop with a small pair, an 8, a 9, etc with that board like James said. Once in a while I'll actually be ahead too. He might fold a gutshot, or he may even call with some of those hands, and my turn bet will probably prevent me from having the pot taken away on the river.

So... I got checkraised. Now what?

Also, a little off topic, but do you guys think it would more or less correct to bet again if the board were 7 8 5 5, assuming I now have 6 outs to improve instead of 10?

[Steve Giufre]

[ QUOTE ]
just curious steve, are you calling a CR here if you did bet?

i have been in this situation alot (w overs and a gutshot HU facing a turn bet), and waiver between calling and folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think in general you definitely need a pretty decent overlay in these spots. Im sure Nate or somebody could figure in some math, but it really just depends on how likely your overcard outs are to be live. I guess the worse it looks the more of an overlay you need. In this hand, the pair on board makes it a little scary, but since we are HU and I open raised from the cutoff, I dont think he really has to put me on any sort of hand at this point, so he might checkraise with a lot of holdings. So, it kinda makes me wonder how likely he is to have a 5, especially since I would think he would play it fast on the flop and try to end it as quickly as possible.

[34TheTruth34]

I agree with James here 100%. If you had AK or AQ, you'd probably check behind and call any river bet unimproved. But your hand is clearly too weak for that, so you have to bet and hope he folds.

Now that I see you got check-raised, I think you have an easy call with potentially ten outs.

The thing that worries me is that he just called the flop bet, as most players would either fold or raise here. But since you said he's an unknown it's likely he's a new bad player and he's just peeling one. IMO, this is more reason to bet the turn.