Q-Js or 8-8

[andyfox]

It looks like's it's going to be a 5-way pot for 4 bets (capped) pre-flop. Which hand would you rather have: Q-Js or 8-8? Do position or post-flop skill or aggressiveness (or lack thereof) in your opponents (or other factors) affect your choice?

[Nate tha' Great]

88.

I don't think my cards are going to be very live in the QJs hand, assuming my opponents are something resembling reasonable. I'd actually rather have 76s in this spot than QJs.

[Gabe]

Why didn't you add a poll to your post. There may still be time. maybe two polls: QJs vs 88, QJs in posistion vs 88 out of position. Hurry up! I don't think you have much time.

[skp]

Postflop aggresion is probably the biggest factor. QJs can be expected to pay through the nose while 88 would welcome aggression when it hits a set (albeit 88 might also flop a draw and have to pay dearly).

QJs can often flop a 3, 4, or 5 outer with enough pots odds to chase (again, postflop aggression comes into play). Less often, it will flop 9 to 18 outers where there clearly will be sufficient pot odds. 88 will generally only flop a set or a 2 outer. The effect of this is that if you are going to win on a turn or river card, you could do it with QJs but not likely with 88.

As for position, relative position is probably more important than absolute position. It would be nice to be as far away as possible from the anticipated flop bettor with 88. I am not quite sure where I want to be with QJs. Another thing is that relative position on the flop and turn may not be the same depending on how the action unfolds.

This question prolly merits an essay type answer but my Coles Notes view of the question makes me believe that 88 is better.

[Fianchetto]

I'd rather have pocket 8's.

Implied odds are great if you make your set and it is much easier to get away from postflop when you miss.

QJs can make a lot of second best hands, and in that size pot you will probably have odds to chase your pair/gutshot/whatever to the river, often getting taken for a ride on multiple streets.

[skp]

[ QUOTE ]
Implied odds are great if you make your set and it is much easier to get away from postflop when you miss.

QJs can make a lot of second best hands, and in that size pot you will probably have odds to chase your pair/gutshot/whatever to the river, often getting taken for a ride on multiple streets.

[/ QUOTE ]

These may be reasons why QJs is better than 88. Specifically, 88 may just have one chance - on the flop - to drag a big pot while QJ might get 3 profitable chances.

I think the quesion is a close one and anticipated postflop aggresion prbably dictates what you would rather hold.

[andyfox]

I'm not too interested in the quantity of responses favoring either hand; I am more interested in the reasoning.

And beside, I'm not very good at hurrying up.

[Fianchetto]

[ QUOTE ]

I think the quesion is a close one and anticipated postflop aggresion prbably dictates what you would rather hold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. But I think if we are capped 5-ways preflop we are looking at a loose aggressive game.

In that type of game I think it is going to be much tougher to make correct postflop decisions with QJs.

For instance, the flop comes Q high, and it is bet and raised or even reraised to you....sure the pot is huge and you will probably continue, but how many outs do you have? When you flop a pair if you take aggressive action to protect it you may pay through the nose to find out that you were drawing very slim.

Note: I may be somewhat biased as I recently discovered QJs is one of my biggest leaks, specifically because of entering raised pots with it.

[Clarkmeister]

1. 88
2. ATs (just to stir the pot)
3. QJs

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd actually rather have 76s in this spot than QJs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that's stirring the pot. Interesting.

[Ray Zee]

if you are calling cold they are both bad hands. but if in, the 88 has to make up alot after the flop in bets so it must be with players that are going to push hard after the flop. the queen jack is so much prettier so i will go with that one.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd actually rather have 76s in this spot than QJs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that's stirring the pot. Interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just give your opponents a range of plausible hands and plug it into PokerStove. QJs is a disaster here. I'm disappointed that Ray disagrees with me because it all has to do with the liveness of your cards. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Okay, I'll do it myself.

Opponent #1: Fairly loose UTG raiser:

AA-77, AKs-A9s, KQs-KJs, QJs, AKo-AJo, KQo

Opponent #2: Aggressive 3-bettor:

AA-99, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo

Opponent #3: TAG capper:

AA-JJ, AKs, AKo

Opponent #4: Degenerate cold-caller:

AA-55, AKs-A8s, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-AQo, T9s ... 65s

Against that range of hands, we get the following equities, hot-and-cold:

QJs: 14.5%
88: 16.8%
76s: 18.8%
ATs: 13.5%

[surfdoc]

Interesting. Thanks Nate.

Does that factor in the chance that your 78s is the same suit as the QJs or do you specifically have to plug in the suit when running it?

[Ray Zee]

yea, nate you contrived a scenario where it looks like 88 is better if all hands go to the river.
you are also making the ground rules that the qj and 88 never were one of the raisers either, and each player have at least a legit hand. even then only 4 points lead by 88.
and it still isnt a prettier hand than qjs.

[LarsVegas]

My first instinct says 88 and it isn't even that close in my book.

None of these hands like 5-way, capped action preflop, but had I been sat on the button (and possibly in some worse positions too) with 88 and been told that this would get capped 5-way preflop, I would probably play. QJs NO WAY.

While 88 is an uncomfortable/marginal hand in this spot, QJs is a downright sucker hand here IMHO.

By the way Ray, how come QJs must not "make up for a lot of bets postflop" here? It's not like one pair is going to win it, at least not more often than 88 will unimproved (the queen or jack will almost always be dominated if AA, KK or QQ aren't already out).

lars

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd actually rather have 76s in this spot than QJs.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if the flop is T-9-8?

My point is the QJ is pretty much always drawing to the nut str8 while 76 might not be drawing live on say a 9-8-Q board.

[34TheTruth34]

QJs, 'cause I don't like folding on the flop.

[astroglide]

there are like 25+ bets in preflop. you can see the turn with 88.

[obi---one]

[ QUOTE ]
88.

I don't think my cards are going to be very live in the QJs hand, assuming my opponents are something resembling reasonable. I'd actually rather have 76s in this spot than QJs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd rather have 76s than qjs as well. And I would take any pp over qjs.

[Paluka]

I definitely take 88 over QJs here. I don't think it is close, I'd be really surprised if it was.

[AceHigh]

I like 88 or any pocket pair over QJs. It seems unlikely that the flop play will be passive if the players are so aggressive preflop.

[Michael Davis]

I just downloaded PokerStove and it rules.

Anyways, I ran the following simulation, which I think will shed some light on the issue at hand. I gave all players the hand ranges of raising hands that I generally assume to be the case when I am at the table:

Player 1: AKs, AKo
Player 2: AKs, AKo
Player 3: AKs, AKo
Player 4: AKs, AKo

In this scenario, 88 had 83% equity and QJs had 51.8. But the equity of QJs is especially higher because you may be able to occasionally steal when the flop comes T97 or something by just pounding. Not enough to make up 30%, though.

Clearly, both of these hands are excellent holdings in this situation.

-Michael

[droidboy]

[ QUOTE ]
These may be reasons why QJs is better than 88. Specifically, 88 may just have one chance - on the flop - to drag a big pot while QJ might get 3 profitable chances.


[/ QUOTE ]

We are talking about a pot with 20+ small bets in it. Depending on how the action goes, 88 will often take one of on the flop. You also seem to forget that there are plenty of straight draws for 88 to flop as well as the 2 outs for the set. It won't be uncommon for 88 to have a six out draw to go to the river with.

The biggest problem for QJs is that when it hits two pair, it will be very vulnerable to straght redraws.

- Andrew

[skp]

Agreed on the 88 discussion. But I was aware of 88 possibly sticking around beyond the flop (see the use of the word "may" in my post that you responded to) and also aware that it too might flop a draw (see my intial post in response to Andy's lead post).

On the QJs, perhaps it's semantics but I would not characterize hitting two pairs and being vulnerable to straight REDRAWS as being the biggest problem. Hitting two pairs on say the turn or river and having that card making someone else a straight at the same time is perhaps what you meant and that is of course a concern.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
if you are calling cold they are both bad hands. but if in, the 88 has to make up alot after the flop in bets so it must be with players that are going to push hard after the flop. the queen jack is so much prettier so i will go with that one.

[/ QUOTE ]

what do you mean prettier? please explain what makes it better...is it because of the drawing opportunities that present themselves that almost guarantee others have cards that match those that include your draws? etc..

-Barron

[JihadOnTheRiver]

I agree with Fianchetto. The strongest argument in this discussion, for my money at least, is the ability to get away from 88 if it doesn't hit. QJs is going to get you into a lot of situations where you talk yourself into believing you're making an odds-based call or bet, when you may be drawing dead or very very slim.

-Durka Durka

[JihadOnTheRiver]

ATs not with somebody else's money

-Durka Durka

[Dave Mac]

he means nicer to look at not better.

[Dave Mac]

I think ATs is ok here but def not better than QJs, you flop 3 Qs or 3 Js or one or either it is much more liekyl to be good than an A. Plus it makes more str8s.
Dave

[skp]

As Andrew Prock points out, it may not be easy (or even correct) to get away from 88 if you don't catch a set on the flop given that there are 20 small bets in there preflop.

But let's asume that we go in with a hit or get out philosophy. This ability to "get away" should not be seen as a big advantage. The fact is that the inability to stick around and improve on the turn and river is a disadvantage. That is to say, QJs offers you more of an opportunity to win a big pot than 88. QJs will no doubt cost you more but you will win the pot more often with it.
This is a big pot that is bound to get bigger. The chance to win a big pot should trump the ability to save bets postflop.

HFPAP advises that:

In big pots, do what you can to win it. Saving bets should be a secondary consideration (or something to that effect as I am paraphrasing).

If "do what you can" includes picking a hand, one might pick QJs for the reasons you give for wanting to pick 88.

[skp]

How's this:

1. The big advantage with 88 is that you are more likely to hit right away on the flop thereby enabling you to have a "brave" hand throughout the hand.

2. The advantage with QJs is that you are definitely more likely to suck out on the river and slightly more likely to suck out on the turn. While QJs may put you in a spot where you have to lose more bets when you don't win the pot, you will win in fact win the pot more often with QJs than with 88. As this is a big pot bound to get bigger, the extra investments required by QJs (as compared to 88) might well be worth it.

Overall: Close decision with a slight nod to 88 given point 1 above.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
How's this:

1. The big advantage with 88 is that you are more likely to hit right away on the flop thereby enabling you to have a "brave" hand throughout the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a HUGE advantage. Certainly, you like flopping a flush draw or an OESD with your QJs, and will be making quite a bit of money when you do so. But the equity of flopping a four-flush is nothing compared to the equity of flopping a set.

[ QUOTE ]
2. The advantage with QJs is that you are definitely more likely to suck out on the river and slightly more likely to suck out on the turn. While QJs may put you in a spot where you have to lose more bets when you don't win the pot, you will win in fact win the pot more often with QJs than with 88. As this is a big pot bound to get bigger, the extra investments required by QJs (as compared to 88) might well be worth it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I don't see this as being terribly advantageous. Say our hand is Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif. There are a lot of flops that are just no fun at all.

A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

What the hell are we doing here? It's likely going to wind up costing us three or four bets to get to the turn with a gutshot that is vulnerable to boat and flush redraws.

A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif.

How about here? We've got a backdoor flush draw and some backdoor straight draws. Our equity is not trivial. Are we continuing?

Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

There's a fun one.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
there are like 25+ bets in preflop. you can see the turn with 88.

[/ QUOTE ]

How often is it going to be one bet to you on the flop?

[skp]

To be sure, you are going to get marginal flops with QJs. You have to get out your calculator and exercise sound judgment to make the correct postflop decisions. In theory, you wont be in with QJs beyond the flop unless you have the odds to continue.

The A93 rainbow one spade flop is going to be just as sticky to handle with 88 as it is with QJs. Also, other flops will be sticky for 88 but not QJs eg. 234 rainbow with no spades. 954 with two diamonds etc etc.

[ QUOTE ]
QhKh4s .

There's a fun one.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are lots of flops like this one. I would rather have QsJs on this "difficult" flop (and others like it) and continue to the river as opposed to having 88 and folding on the flop or turn. The pot is worth chasing despite the chase costs and QJs better equips me for the chase than 88.

BTW, you know that this is all Devil's Advocate stuff because I do prefer 88 over QJs but not by a huge nargin.

[kgrad5]

I don't play anywhere near these limits but it seems to me (and you can all tell me i am wrong after heh) that even if you hit an 8 in this pot, you cannot be comfortable with your hand. If any face card shows up at all, in a 5 way capped preflop hand there is a very good chance someone has a higher set then 8s. However, if you make a straight or a flush and the board isnt paired... im feeling a lot better then if i only had a set of 8s.. and if the flop leaves me with nothing, i can get away from my hand super easy with QJs.. with 88 im playing for ONLY a set, with QJs im playing for a straight or a flush..
hope what i said has some validity..

[elysium]

hi andy

88 by far is the beter hand under these conditions. i know that you must know this. why post you this question did andy?

[Michael Davis]

Somehow I suspect it came out of a discussion with snakehead.

-Michael

[Tommy Angelo]

I'd want the QJs on the button and from anywhere else I'd rather have the 88. I'll let Ray elaborate.

[andyfox]

"why post you this question did andy?"

witnessed mike l. snakehead with Q-Js capped pre-flop. questioned mike l. of snakehead why you this did and yet with 8-8 fold advised. which queried snakehead would you have rather pre-flop, Q-J or 8-8 snakehead asked in a capped pot. 8-8 replied certainly mike l. but should a separate thread I start the one question? The liberty I took to myself so do.

[andyfox]

As it turns out, snakehead was on the button when he capped with Q-Js. Or so rumor has it.

[eugeneel123]

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the better you are as a player, and the more reads you have on the players against you, the more likely you are to feel better about the JQs as you can get away from the hand much easier and know where you are at.

It takes very little skill to play the 88 postflop.

Naturally I lean towards the JQs

-Eugene

[/ QUOTE ]

Precise hands reads tend to be inversely proportional to pot size.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the better you are as a player, and the more reads you have on the players against you, the more likely you are to feel better about the JQs as you can get away from the hand much easier and know where you are at.

It takes very little skill to play the 88 postflop.

Naturally I lean towards the JQs

-Eugene

[/ QUOTE ]

Precise hands reads tend to be inversely proportional to pot size.

[/ QUOTE ]

i was about to write a likely long boring post about this exact concept. then i said, "wait a tic, barron...just see what nate posted first, he might have had the same idea and it'll save you from time."

well said.

-Barron

[snakehead]

[ QUOTE ]
snakehead was on the button when he capped with Q-Js

[/ QUOTE ]

I was the big blind. I might not have played it if I didn't already have money in the pot.

[astroglide]

you do not have odds to get away from anything drawing in a pot like this

[elysium]

andy hi

understand now i, aye.

[imported_stealthcow]

the better my opponents are, the more likely i want 88

but the smaller the stakes/worse the opponents the more i would want QJs.

by position i'd take 88 over QJs in almost every position except for the last few

stealthcow-

[fearme]

88!!!!!!, i dont want to be dominated, i think qjs u flop too many trap hands

[skp]

Why is everyone just looking at a half empty glass and not a half full glass?

Yes, QJs may see you be dominated and paying off postflop but the pot is not a dinky little one. There is a big reward for sucking out and you will suck out more often with QJs than with 88. Given pot size, being dominated is not so bad as being in the chase with a reasonable number of outs is good.

88 will hit big at times on the flop while QJs is less likely to do so. That makes 88 better but not that much better.

Am I just out to lunch here?

What the hell are Andy's and Snakehead's views anyway since they started this thing?

[Rex Bluett]

I'm not calling 3 cold but if I get caught up in it I like 88
a. Because its easier to play later
b. because no one else surely has the cards i'd most like to see

[Paluka]

For those who prefer QJs over 88: where do you draw the line? How about 5 people but for only 3 bets preflop? How about capped preflop but only 3 players? Is there something magical about 5 players capped that suddenly makes QJs preferable? I'm sure if I said 3 handed for 3 bets some of you would pick 88. If I keep adding players and adding bets, what is it about a particular amount of players/bets that makes you switch?

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
It looks like's it's going to be a 5-way pot for 4 bets (capped) pre-flop. Which hand would you rather have: Q-Js or 8-8? Do position or post-flop skill or aggressiveness (or lack thereof) in your opponents (or other factors) affect your choice?

[/ QUOTE ]

Haven't had time to look at the other 2234 responses but I'd easily take the pair. Most of your good flops to QJs will be draws and extremely expensive to draw to. The eights will play themselves and win huge when they hit a set. In either case, a single pair isn't going to win often enough to matter.

In multi-way capped flops, it usually takes a big hand or draw to win I'd rather flop the big hand.

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
We are talking about a pot with 20+ small bets in it. Depending on how the action goes, 88 will often take one of on the flop. You also seem to forget that there are plenty of straight draws for 88 to flop as well as the 2 outs for the set. It won't be uncommon for 88 to have a six out draw to go to the river with.


[/ QUOTE ]

The 88 will rarely get to take one off for one bet. But if it can it usually should.

~ Rick

[snakehead]

I thought I made it clear I prefer the QJs. but I thing there would have to be special circumstances before I would get invloved in a capped pot with either hand.

[skp]

Mea culpa...I never understand clear posts...heh

[andyfox]

Hey, if I knew the answer I wouldn't have asked the question.

I think at Commerce I'd prefer the Q-Js. It's more likely a capper or 3-bettor has T-T or 9-9 and less likely somebody has A-A or K-K than in, say, Vegas, so catching one pair in Commerce has a better chance of being enough and is less worrisome to play than in nittier games.

At Commerce, it's often capped pre-flop and then you get to see the flop for one bet. Lots of guys check to the capper and just call, even with what they perceive as a big hand. I think that helps both hands.

And I like Ray's prettier argument.

[DiamondDave]

For me, QJs (in any seat) is all bad in a 5way capped pot. The cards just aren't high enough, even if the other players in the pot are very loose.

If enough players who feel the need to Be In Charge are in the pot, I might play the 88 if the time were right for a draw like that. But it almost always feels right to muck 88 when it's getting capped.