Is this a fool's logic, or does it sound... interesting?

[spentrent]

Early on, say, 8 to 10 players remaining, I don't like to limp with pocket pairs smaller than 88.

However, if the pot has been open-raised, I'll call with any pocket pair as long as it costs less than 1/15th of my stack.

My reasoning is this: my implied odds increase when the pot has been raised -- TPTK or a pocket overpair will be more likely to pay me off when I spike a set; whereas, in an unraised pot, my implied odds are significantly smaller since anyone can get away from top pair weak kicker or a draw.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]

My reasoning is this: my implied odds increase when the pot has been raised -- TPTK or a pocket overpair will be more likely to pay me off when I spike a set; whereas, in an unraised pot, my implied odds are significantly smaller since anyone can get away from top pair weak kicker or a draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

It also increases the odds you'll be nailed for all your chips by a higher set.

[Big Limpin']

oh please.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
oh please.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it's true! /images/graemlins/wink.gif I know, I know, not enough of a worry to be overly concerned about.

[ilya]

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..whereas, in an unraised pot, my implied odds are significantly smaller since anyone can get away from top pair weak kicker or a draw.

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As if.

[AtticusFinch]

Ok, a more appropriate response. You need to account for the reduction in implied odds you get because the raise is a larger percentage of the guy's stack.

If he raises to 3bb, then your profit % for taking his whole stack has been reduced to 1/3 of its value. Perhaps the added probability of taking his stack can sometimes even this out, but not very often.

I'll assume the times you hit your set and lose roughly balance out the times you win despite missing your set. (Not accurate, but good enough for a rough estimate)

Since you have about a 7.5 to 1 shot of hitting your set, you need the lesser of your stack sizes to give you better than 7.5/1 odds. 15% of your stack is too much. 11.7% gives you even money. So 10% of your stack is probably a reasonable guideline if you take his whole stack every time you hit. The true guideline is even lower.

This needs to be adjusted for multi-handed pots of course, but you get the idea.