Interesting river play...I think. [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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Entity

02-07-2005, 04:44 PM

Villain (SB) has .25BB left after betting the river. The preflop capper is a decent, slightly loose player who seems to be capable of thinking. He tends to call down too much when beaten, but I think he's capable of folding KK with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif or QQ with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif if I raise BB's river bet. I'm not positive he's capable of this, though. He might call anyway, but something in me doubts it.

So, that said, what do we think of overcalls on this river? If I 3-bet and PFR folds, the most I can get is another .25BB. If I call, the most I can get is probably 1BB.

It's a situation I haven't had come up very often.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, 3 folds, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, MP1 folds, MP2 caps, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13 SB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, MP2 calls, SB 3-bets, Hero caps, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, MP2 calls, SB calls.

River: (18.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls...

JordanIB

02-07-2005, 04:47 PM

Hold on a moment....still trying to get over SB's stop 'n go with .25 left. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Villain (SB) has .25BB left after betting the river. The preflop capper is a decent, slightly loose player who seems to be capable of thinking. He tends to call down too much when beaten, but I think he's capable of folding KK with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif or QQ with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif if I raise BB's river bet. I'm not positive he's capable of this, though. He might call anyway, but something in me doubts it.

So, that said, what do we think of overcalls on this river? If I 3-bet and PFR folds, the most I can get is another .25BB. If I call, the most I can get is probably 1BB.

It's a situation I haven't had come up very often.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, 3 folds, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, MP1 folds, MP2 caps, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13 SB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, MP2 calls, SB 3-bets, Hero caps, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, MP2 calls, SB calls.

River: (18.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls...

[/ QUOTE ]

shadow29

02-07-2005, 04:53 PM

Fold preflop.

Call the flop bet. You're probably beat here.

Hmmm. I'm not sure about your turn line here. You don't want to give away your hand, but I still think that 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif is a strong possibility, so I just call.

SBs tripple sng confuses me. This leads me to conclude that he must have 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. It's true that it's a relatively big pot, but I am 99% sure you're beat here. Fold.

Nick Royale

02-07-2005, 05:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
He tends to call down too much when beaten, but I think he's capable of folding KK with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif or QQ with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif if I raise BB's river bet. I'm not positive he's capable of this, though. He might call anyway, but something in me doubts it.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's capable of making these laydowns then going for a overcall must be the right thing to do. To make it easy, assume he'll always fold with KK/QQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif if you raise, he'll have to call with the same hands more than 25% to make the overcall line profitable (as if you didn't already knew /images/graemlins/wink.gif).

The times he'll fold when you call together with the times he'll call a raise makes me wanna adjust this approximation to about 40%, but as long as your read is somewhat correct I think the overcall line is clearly the best.

VBM

02-07-2005, 05:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So, that said, what do we think of overcalls on this river?

[/ QUOTE ]

we think we should all have problems like this. i think an overcall is appropriate.

if you tempo-it right to telegraph: "i am calling b/c i can't quit", he may raise the river for you, but i doubt it since he called your turn raise & didn't 3-bet...

(edit: i must've been cross-eyed; if you read the post b4 the edit /images/graemlins/blush.gif)

meep_42

02-07-2005, 06:16 PM

I think this is an easy call. You'll get 1BB out of at least 1 of the overcallers and .25 out of SB. If you raise, you need to be very sure that you'll get called in one place (you're not getting 3-bet here).

-d

Nick Royale

02-07-2005, 06:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is an easy call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Agree. Pretty easy.

[ QUOTE ]
You'll get 1BB out of at least 1 of the overcallers...

[/ QUOTE ]
There are only 1 possible.

[ QUOTE ]
...and .25 out of SB

[/ QUOTE ]
By calling? No.

[ QUOTE ]
If you raise, you need to be very sure that you'll get called in one place (you're not getting 3-bet here).

[/ QUOTE ]
Not really, but according to the read you can't expect MP2 to call a raise.

Have I totally misunderstood your post or you the hand?

btspider

02-07-2005, 08:43 PM

raise:
EV(raise) = .25 BB + x * 2 BB

call:
EV(call) = 0 BB + y * 1 BB

to not raise, this must be true:
y > 2x + .25

or
y - .25 > 2x
x < .5 * y - .125

random samples:
y = 100%, x = 37.5%
y = 50%, x = 12.5%
y = 25%, x = 0%

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not positive he's capable of this, though. He might call anyway, but something in me doubts it.

[/ QUOTE ]

that guaranteed (an assumption of course) .25 BB is pretty darn valuable. if he's capable of calling 2 only 37% of the time, you make more by raising. if he's not capable of calling one bet 25% of the time, you make more by raising. somewhere in between it gets fuzzy..

if he cold-calls slightly more than 1 time in 8, you make more by raising than going for the overcall if he only calls 1 time in 2. so it seems you need to be pretty sure he'll never cold-call to make calling better.

Entity

02-07-2005, 08:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
raise:
EV(raise) = .25 BB + x * 2 BB

call:
EV(call) = 0 BB + y * 1 BB

to not raise, this must be true:
y > 2x + .25

or
y - .25 > 2x
x < .5 * y - .125

random samples:
y = 100%, x = 37.5%
y = 50%, x = 12.5%
y = 25%, x = 0%

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not positive he's capable of this, though. He might call anyway, but something in me doubts it.

[/ QUOTE ]

that guaranteed (an assumption of course) .25 BB is pretty darn valuable. if he's capable of calling 2 only 37% of the time, you make more by raising. if he's not capable of calling one bet 25% of the time, you make more by raising. somewhere in between it gets fuzzy..

if he cold-calls slightly more than 1 time in 8, you make more by raising than going for the overcall if he only calls 1 time in 2. so it seems you need to be pretty sure he'll never cold-call to make calling better.

[/ QUOTE ]

spider,

I think he'll overcall here a lot. Like at least 80%, but probably closer to 100% of the time. I'll look at the math of that again in a while to see how often he needs to call two on the river.

Rob

detruncate

02-07-2005, 09:54 PM

I'd call if I was comfortable with my reads.

QTip

02-07-2005, 10:31 PM

What's your story shadow...every anything constructive?

QTip

02-07-2005, 10:33 PM

You know...I think if you 2 or 3 behind you I'd go for the overcalls. However, this pot is large, and there aren't many players that will fold this pot after so much of it is there money. Especially is they have a small flush. I think I'd raise and keep pushing.

KingOtter

02-07-2005, 10:50 PM

You did get the humor, right?

I mean honestly... fold pre-flop AA?

Really... you were joking, too, right?

KO.. the sucker...

Entity

02-07-2005, 11:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You know...I think if you 2 or 3 behind you I'd go for the overcalls. However, this pot is large, and there aren't many players that will fold this pot after so much of it is there money. Especially is they have a small flush. I think I'd raise and keep pushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you read the hand? What type of flush would you put MP2 on? There's probably ~.01% chance he has a flush on the river.

Rob

Shillx

02-08-2005, 12:02 AM

I would call fwiw. The guy behind you doesn't have an ace so I really don't see him calling 2 bets here.

Brad

DeathDonkey

02-08-2005, 01:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The guy behind you doesn't have an ace so I really don't see him calling 2 bets here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't post drunk.

I'd just call too and feel funky about it.

-DeathDonkey

toss

02-08-2005, 01:41 AM

Since MP2 doesn't have a flush on the river, I don't think theres more than a 25% chance he's calling any sort of bet on the river. (Then again Party never ceases to amaze) I would raise seeing how you're almost guaranteed SB's last quarter.

DeathDonkey

02-08-2005, 02:01 AM

You people are crazy (this isn't meant just for you toss)! If MP2 doesn't have KK or QQ with a diamond I'll be absolutely shocked. He is calling down come hell or high water, but he might not call 2 cold on the river.

-DeathDonkey

toss

02-08-2005, 02:10 AM

Ooops didn't read the part about the read on MP2. I guess you should follow your instincts then.

Entity

02-08-2005, 03:02 AM

I called, MP2 called and showed down Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif.

Still not sure if I like my line.

Rob

DeathDonkey

02-08-2005, 03:18 AM

I win!

Hojglad

02-08-2005, 04:10 AM

I'm pretty sure I'd raise the river. SB is pot committed at this point. If you raise, he calls. That nets you 1BB if MP2 ends up folding (remember though, it's crying call time for MP2). If you call the river, MP2 is going to call behind you. That's 1 BB. The two situations are the same.

However, should you raise, there is a chance that MP2 will call. SB is also certainly going to call. He loves his hand.

Any chance at all of MP2 cold calling your raise makes raising the best play here, as it is pretty obvious that SB calls your raise no matter what.

That being said, this is a pretty interesting river. However, it's one of those things that will never come up often enough for it to be a significant mistake/strength in your game. Nice hand.

Edit: When you say if I three bet, I can only get 0.25BB out of SB, do you mean raise? I assume that's what you mean - you didn't have a chance to make it three on the river. If this is the case, I like your try for the overcall.