Near bubble with QQ and an A on the board

[trojanrabbit]

Party $10+1. Opponents seem typical.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1100)
BB (t125)
UTG (t2250)
MP (t2425)
Button (t2100)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t100, MP folds, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333"> Hero raises to t400</font>, BB calls t25 (All-in), UTG calls t300.

Flop: (t925) 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif
Hero ?

[microbet]

I'd play it like he has JJ or JT or something and bet 100-200.

If you check he will put you all in and you will call. If you go all in he will call you with any ace and fold with anything else except another PP and you probably have him beat.

The only thing you might want him to fold that he might have (and would consider folding) would be a King or maybe 56 or 67 with runner-runner flush draws.

But, this is in the forum. In a real game I don't think this much and I might push, foolishly hoping he will fold A9 or foolishly pushing him off his pocket 4s.

What do you all think about this reasoning?

[11t]

I push preflop and avoid this whole ordeal. You don't have the stack to put yourself in this situation, I mean you are out of position and this was the one thing you didn't want to happen and you let it.

Just push pf.

[microbet]

I would also have pushed preflop. Especially with JJ or QQ.

[trojanrabbit]

I can see how pushing PF lets you avoid this decision, but I'm not sure it's +EV compared to raising a smaller amount. Pushing may call weaker aces to fold, where they might call a smaller bet (you want them to call). Besides, if he calls me with an ace, there's only an 18% chance that an ace will come on the board. I think I want that extra money against a weak ace.

In any case, assume you don't push PF. How do you play the flop?

[Skip Brutale]

[ QUOTE ]
I can see how pushing PF lets you avoid this decision, but I'm not sure it's +EV compared to raising a smaller amount. Pushing may call weaker aces to fold, where they might call a smaller bet (you want them to call). Besides, if he calls me with an ace, there's only an 18% chance that an ace will come on the board. I think I want that extra money against a weak ace.

In any case, assume you don't push PF. How do you play the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you not aware of the "if raising 1/3 or more of your stack pre-flop, just raise all-in" mantra? FOLLOW IT!

[microbet]

My first post was about playing it post flop. What do you think about it?

[DVaut1]

I think this is one of those hands where you're either way ahead or way behind. I'd check. Here are his options if you check:
1) He checks. Either he's trapping with a Ax (doubtful but possible) or cold called PF with a mid/low pp or Broadways and wants a look at the turn. I don't think a free card kills you here. If you're ahead and give him a free card, he probably has 2 or 3 outs (he could have 8 outs if you give him credit for 86 or 64, 4 outs if he has 98 or 43, but I see no reason to put him on exactly these hands. Are they calling UTG, then cold calling another 300 PF with those hands? I don't play $10+1s so maybe this is common, but I doubt it).

OR

2a) He pushes/bets with his Ax.
2b) He pushes/bets with the worst hand.
If he pushes, you're getting better than 2.3 to 1 on your money. Even if he has Ax, you'll hit your Q 8% of the time, meaning he has to have Ax 65% of the time for your call to be wrong when he does push. If you're committed to this hand (and I personally think you are, because I'm not giving him credit for having the Ace 65% of the time), then pushing on the flop only gets him to fold hands you're way ahead of anyway. Check and let him bluff at it if he doesn't have an Ace, since I think all your chips are ending up in the middle regardless (and a free card isn't that costly).

Daryl

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I can see how pushing PF lets you avoid this decision, but I'm not sure it's +EV compared to raising a smaller amount.

[/ QUOTE ]

Trojan Rabbit,

I think you should spend some time soul searching about this statement. Or better yet, spend some time 2+2 searching - in the archives. When you get better at this decision, you will have a bigger ROI.

[ QUOTE ]
In any case, assume you don't push PF. How do you play the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why you push PF BTW, to get out the Ax's, or to make them *pay to play.* That being said, you can put UTG on Ax, or any two broadway cards, or a pocket pair, IMHO.

If you make a value bet, of say 200 chips here, you are left with 500 chips if he raises you. If you check fold to any bets, you are left with 700 chips. The blinds are small enough for you to try and battle your way back to ITM with 700 chips, IMO. I think if the blinds were any higher, you just push this hand post flop.

Rabbit, spend your time on some math, this is a seriously +$EV move to push this preflop.

[DVaut1]

[ QUOTE ]
If you make a value bet, of say 200 chips here, you are left with 500 chips if he raises you. If you check fold to any bets, you are left with 700 chips. The blinds are small enough for you to try and battle your way back to ITM with 700 chips, IMO. I think if the blinds were any higher, you just push this hand post flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

If Hero bets 200 and Villain comes over the top, Hero is getting better than 4 to 1 to call. The pot will be offering 2325, with Hero having his last 500 left to call. Even if Villain has Ax, Hero will hit the Q and suck out almost 9% of the time. With Hero's pot odds, and the 9% of the time Hero will draw to the probable nuts, Villain only has to be bluffing 13% of the time to make Hero's call correct (if Hero bets 200 and Villain comes over the top).

Value betting here is the same as pushing. Villain will fold hands that Hero is already crushing and Villain will push if he has the Ace. The only way a value bet here works is if he calls with absolutely nothing, or a straight draw (and a bet of 200 is giving a straight draw the right odds to call anyway, so if Hero is actually worried about Villain having a straight draw, then he should push).
You're either way ahead or way behind. No such thing as a value bet there. Someone jump in here and correct me if I'm wrong.

Daryl

[Scuba Chuck]

The only way a value bet here works is if he calls with absolutely nothing

...or folds.

[DVaut1]

If Villain is going to fold, then Hero should check and give him a chance to bluff at it. Why bet Villain off the worst hand? The disaster in checking is that you could conceivably give Villain a free card. Villain probably has 2 or 3 outs if Hero's ahead right now. A free card isn't very bad here. What does betting 200 accomplish except getting Villain to fold the worst hand, or leaving Hero pot committed anyway when Villain pushes? Checking gives Villain the chance to bluff with the worst hand.

[bball904]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can see how pushing PF lets you avoid this decision, but I'm not sure it's +EV compared to raising a smaller amount.

[/ QUOTE ]

Trojan Rabbit,

I think you should spend some time soul searching about this statement. Or better yet, spend some time 2+2 searching - in the archives. When you get better at this decision, you will have a bigger ROI.

[ QUOTE ]
In any case, assume you don't push PF. How do you play the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why you push PF BTW, to get out the Ax's, or to make them *pay to play.* That being said, you can put UTG on Ax, or any two broadway cards, or a pocket pair, IMHO.

If you make a value bet, of say 200 chips here, you are left with 500 chips if he raises you. If you check fold to any bets, you are left with 700 chips. The blinds are small enough for you to try and battle your way back to ITM with 700 chips, IMO. I think if the blinds were any higher, you just push this hand post flop.

Rabbit, spend your time on some math, this is a seriously +$EV move to push this preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Scuba, I'd love to see a link to a post that tells me shoving an 11x raise here is the 2+2 mantra for this situation.

trojan, I like the 400 raise for the reasons you gave, but you have to check/fold with the A on board. You still have 7x big blind to work with.

[spentrent]

I wonder what UTG is capable of limp-calling with at this point on that stack. AT+? KT+? Ax? Kx? Any PP?

Would he make this play with a strong A, like AK|AQ?

I dunno, cuz I haven't been playing with him for the last 30 minutes. But I think I'd do as Scuba suggests and push pre-flop. UTG can make it to the bubble as one of the three big guys if he just gives you the blinds, and unless he's got AA|KK|QQ he really has no reason to call.

[david050173]

[ QUOTE ]

Scuba, I'd love to see a link to a post that tells me shoving an 11x raise here is the 2+2 mantra for this situation.

trojan, I like the 400 raise for the reasons you gave, but you have to check/fold with the A on board. You still have 7x big blind to work with.

[/ QUOTE ]

10x is the general rule for when your pushing. If you had like 15x+ I would like the 4x bb bet in that you could still take a shot at the flop with a continuation bet since there is a decent chance you have the best hand still. The third player in the hand gives you a slight chance he might try and check it down but the huge sidepot makes that unlikely.