A situation that James282, Evan and I disussed yesterday

[sfer]

Live 4/8. Two bad players limp, Evan limps in the CO with KTo, bad SB completes, decent BB knuckles.

5 to the flop for 5 SBs. Flop is QQ4 rainbow. Checked to Evan. What is his action?

[kurosh]

Define 'bad'. Bad as in calling station or bad as in bluffs a lot or what?

[sfer]

It makes no difference.

[Evan]

FWIW I didn't know these guys as well as sfer did so I just assumed them to be bad in the way I assume all unknowns to be bad until proven otherwise. sfer has more specific reads but I didn't.

[ace_in_the_hole]

With 5 people tot he flop I think you have to check/fold at this point, maybe call a bet if your are closing the action with a 3 or more callers, but then again a runner-runner straight could be dead to a boat. I'd give up, but I may be wrong.

[emonrad87]

I check.

[gaming_mouse]

I'd think this is an easy c/fold. Am I wrong?

If the two limpers were really loose, what about raising that KTo PF? Any merit to that?

[mantasm]

I would usually check here, but it seems like betting could be an option. The board is so draw free that it's unlikely anyone could call a bet without a queen, 4 or some pocket pair. I don't know if everyone will fold a high enough percentage of the time to make the bet profitable, but you probably have 6 full outs against a pocket pair (anything higher than 99 would likely raise preflop).

If called, I would check through just about any turn. I might bet a K or T but i don't know what to do if I were checkraised.

But yeah, I'd probably check the flop.

[Evan]

In response to the people that said "check-fold"...I am closing the flop action.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
In response to the people that said "check-fold"...I am closing the flop action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I stand by my initial recommendation. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
5 to the flop for 5 SBs. Flop is QQ4 rainbow. Checked to Evan. What is his action?

[/ QUOTE ]

Jesus. I thought I was clear

[BottlesOf]

What's with your avatar? Is it a) the middle fnger b) the shocker c) some kind of metal head bashing sign or d) other?

[sfer]

Hang loose brah. Also, the photo isn't manipulated. Someone covered up parts of the stop light.

[mr pink]

i'd bet intending to fold to a check/raise if went that way. tough decision on the turn if you get called in one place imo. you bet or check the turn on a blank?

[mantasm]

I think if a flop bet is called you are almost always behind. I wouldn't bet the turn unimproved.

[mr pink]

[ QUOTE ]
I think if a flop bet is called you are almost always behind

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah pretty much what i was thinking.

i think it's a good bet because it takes it down enough of the time getting 5 to 1 on your bet that you can just about give it up on the turn if you get called or check/raised.

peace - jeff

[gaming_mouse]

sfer,

what was the gist of your guys' discussion? because checking behind seems so obvious to me, that i feel i must be missing something....

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
what was the gist of your guys' discussion? because checking behind seems so obvious to me, that i feel i must be missing something....

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to bed but I'll post my thoughts in the morning. This is much more interesting than I originally thought.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

if i were 5'4" i'd bet this flop and take a free showdown with K high, or bet of course if I improve.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
Define 'bad'. Bad as in calling station or bad as in bluffs a lot or what?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
It makes no difference.

[/ QUOTE ]


It certainly does if you plan on betting.

[sfer]

No. It matters if you get called.

[mr pink]

i'd try not to put any bets in on the turn. if i got called on the flop bet, i'd probably fold to a turn bet. and if checked to, take the free card. then i'd either:

1. fold to a river bet unimproved

or

2. call a river bet if i paired up. (this bet either being a whiffed check/raise w/ a queen or a bluff)

3. check behind unimproved

reason being there aren't many worse hands that will call a flop bet. any Ace, Queen, 4 or pocket pair has us beat on the turn and river unless we improve. even if someone calls the flop bet with jack high or less - which are the only other hands we have beat, they'll probably check on the turn, and only bet on the river if they improve - (this is pretty player dependent and is pretty thin to be true).
i think most of the value in this bet is on taking down the pot on the flop uncontested... getting called sucks.

[scrub]

[ QUOTE ]
Live 4/8. Two bad players limp, Evan limps in the CO with KTo, bad SB completes, decent BB knuckles.

5 to the flop for 5 SBs. Flop is QQ4 rainbow. Checked to Evan. What is his action?

[/ QUOTE ]

Against passive opponents who will not checkraise Evan on the flop with a 4 or PP and will not bluff-checkraise the turn, Evan should bet the flop and, if called by crappy opponents, bet all turns that do not give him a draw.

scrub

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
passive opponents who will not checkraise Evan on the flop with a 4 or PP and will not bluff-checkraise the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

In my experience even passive, bad players go for a c/r with trips, either on the flop or the turn. I think that you are looking at a c/r attempt here like 80+% of the time.

[Derek in NYC]

Check. The field is too large to bluff out, particularly when two "weak" players are in. A bet on the flop must be followed up with by bets on the turn (and most likely the river), and his hand likely cannot win a showdown unimproved. A majority of the time he gets called down by a hand like 88, and/or checkraised somewhere along the line, because his bets are discounted due to his late position. I check-fold this 100% of the time against a 5 person field.

[Derek in NYC]

Raising KTo from late position with limpers ahead is a mistake.

[Michael Davis]

Limpers have crap. Evan is the CO. Limping from the CO with high cards sucks bad.

-Michael

[sfer]

James and I both immediately thought that this flop texture was an autobet and would win the pot more than 20% of the time.

[Michael Davis]

I think your estimate might be a little high but combined with the fact that hero is usually getting to the river for free (if he chooses) even when somebody calls makes this an easy bet. Hell, hero has the best hand here some of the time, and even when he doesn't, it's real tough to call on this flop with A2.

-Michael

[chief444]

I check. I don't think this is a good opportunity to try to fold out any A-high hands or pocket pairs or 4's. The field is just too big and bad (bad as in more likely to call). If the turn was checked to me again I would bet.

[BWebb]

Very interesting. In my experience betting here against bad opponents is a waste of a sb. Bad players will call the flop bet with nothing in this spot, hoping to pair up on the turn. If they do hit a pair, they will call down. So, IMO, to win this pot the following would have to happen:

A) Nobody has a queen or a four.
B) You bet the flop.
C) They do not improve on the turn.
D) You bet the turn.

The tough part is that if you do get called on the flop, you can almost never bet the turn because someone might be slowplaying. In my eyes you are risking 1.5 BB for the 2.5 BB in the pot. I just don't think a flop bet takes this down that often.

[Michael Davis]

You will often be able to bet the river after they check to you again and then they usually fold ace high.

-Michael

[DeeJ]

ollox. Sometimes limpers will have an Ace, sometimes they will have a King with a better kicker. But you achieve more by folding out the blinds by raising rather than have them decrease your EV by staying in. If a King or a Ten flops it is quite likely you have the best hand.

I raise KTo from the CO against limpers, fold it against a raise (apart from maniacs).

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
Live 4/8. Two bad players limp, Evan limps in the CO with KTo, bad SB completes, decent BB knuckles.

5 to the flop for 5 SBs. Flop is QQ4 rainbow. Checked to Evan. What is his action?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he should bet. Your bet will take it down often enough to make it profitable. Those of you who say it won't probably can't make this judgement since you don't make these bets. Try making these bets and see how they work. You will get called most of the time, but it is still profitable.

Whether or not he bets again on the turn depends on who called and what the turn card was.

If he is check-raised its mucksville.

[chief444]

You may be right. And I would bet this a lot of the time. I'm just not sure if it takes it down here 20% of the time against 3 very bad opponents. But it may.

I will add that if I'm a blind I'll check/raise in this situation pretty often here with a middle pocket pair or even a 4 with a decent kicker.

[sthief09]

I would've raised preflop and followed that up by a bet. there's a big difference between QQ4 and Q44. Q44 I wouldn't bet. QQ4 I would. I'd expect hands like A4 and 55-99 to be betting on the flop. if you get check raised against these people it's an easy muck

[sweetjazz]

For those who bet the flop, what's your plan for the rest of the hand?

I assume if you get called in 2 or more places that you're not putting another bet in unless you improve? What's your plan if a J hits the turn?

If 1 player calls, then it's probably very read based what you should do. Some players call the flop and give up the turn all the time; others who call the flop have indicated they are going to the river no matter what happens.

FWIW, I see the merits of a flop bet here, but I wouldn't make it all the time. Some live players see a ridiculously high number of rivers; if that's the case with one or two of the other four players in this hand, I'm inclined to check behind. But against a lot of sets of opponents, a bet on the flop looks good. I'm also not against betting this flop if there is a two-flush on board.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW I didn't know these guys as well as sfer did so I just assumed them to be bad in the way I assume all unknowns to be bad until proven otherwise. sfer has more specific reads but I didn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW I'd make this bet against most players. loose players are more likely to have crap. tight players are more likely to fold AJ

[Michael Davis]

I'm usually done here if called on the flop, but I bet again on the river if he checks to me twice. If two guys call I'm done.

-Michael

[private joker]

I don't think I'm ready to fight to win this pot post-flop. If I improve on the turn, they check to me again, I bet again, and I get check-raised, is it that easy a fold? If not, I have to call down and get shown a Q. The pot is 5 sb, and Evan can take a free card -- any number of which could improve his hand. A J gives him an OESD, a K or T pairs him up, a 9 or A gives him a gutshot, etc.

The only problem with checking the hand is if we improve on the turn and someone bets into us -- then we have to wonder if we avoided a c/r on the flop from a Q or if they're taking a stab. But at that point, since my KTo is more valuable than it is now, I'd be happier raising the turn and folding to a 3-bet, or calling the turn and eventual river bets.

[sfer]

Ed Miller really laid into me early last year for asking similar questions and now I understand why. The flop bet is profitable...do it. If you get called, then you play poker, but don't worry about that now. Don't check the flop because you're going to feel uncomfortable on the turn if you get called.

FWIW, in a live game like this with a lot of regulars--i.e. a lot of players who you know and who know you--you should know almost exactly which potential callers deserve a second barrel on the turn and who you should check behind.

[colgin]

[ QUOTE ]
Live 4/8. Two bad players limp, Evan limps in the CO with KTo, bad SB completes, decent BB knuckles.

5 to the flop for 5 SBs. Flop is QQ4 rainbow. Checked to Evan. What is his action?

[/ QUOTE ]

Evan bets and everyobody else folds. If for some reason they don't cooperate, Evan reevaluates his hand based on how may callers there were and who they are, what the turn brings and what the action is on the turn when it gets to him.

[Luke]

I agree that this flop bet should be pretty automatic with little regard for the manner in which your opponents are "bad".

But what I wonder is did any of you guys question the preflop limp vs. raise?

I limp a lot in this spot but will raise sometimes depending on how loose preflop and bad the limpers are, my image, the tightness of the button and blinds.

Luke

[Entity]

I'm really surprised Evan limped here preflop, but this is a pretty easy bet for me the majority of the time. Since the pot is usually bigger at this point, the bet is probably more correct, but you've got a ton of folding equity in these spots.

[GuyOnTilt]

if i were 5'4" i'd bet this flop

Hahahaha!

GoT

[sweetjazz]

[ QUOTE ]
The flop bet is profitable...do it. If you get called, then you play poker, but don't worry about that now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. /images/graemlins/smile.gif But the play does become less profitable if one has the habit of ****ing up the later play. (That's not an argument to not bet the flop -- as I don't advocate fixing leaks by giving up profitable plays. I am merely pointing out that it's important to get it right after you make the initial flop bet. But really that's another thread entirely. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif)

And maybe the question isn't a great one to ask in a forum like this, because the answer is definitely "it depends" (particularly on reads of the other players).

Still, it's somewhat interesting to
(1) formulate a plan for later play if you just sat down (i.e. no reads available); and
(2) go over what factors will affect how you "play poker" on later streets

[sweetjazz]

What if you have 98s instead of KTo. I'll repost the original question with the modifications I have in mind.

[ QUOTE ]
Live 4/8. Two bad players limp, You limp in the CO with 98s, bad SB completes, decent BB knuckles.
5 to the flop for 5 SBs. Flop is QQ4 rainbow, one of your suit. Checked to you. What is your action?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is betting still right? Harder problem: estimate how much additional EV there is in having KTo in this spot instead of 98s.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
if i were 5'4" i'd bet this flop and take a free showdown with K high, or bet of course if I improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

To make this applicable to Evan, would you make this bet if you were 4-10 and weighed 85 pounds when soaking wet?

[sfer]

I'm betting any 2 cards here if I'm Evan.

[sfer]

Assuming I got HU, two of the limpers I would have bet the turn again regardless of what fell. The other two I would check because their call indicates a pair of some sort or a setup for a turn checkraise.

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Live 4/8. Two bad players limp, Evan limps in the CO with KTo, bad SB completes, decent BB knuckles.

5 to the flop for 5 SBs. Flop is QQ4 rainbow. Checked to Evan. What is his action?

[/ QUOTE ]

Against passive opponents who will not checkraise Evan on the flop with a 4 or PP and will not bluff-checkraise the turn, Evan should bet the flop and, if called by crappy opponents, bet all turns that do not give him a draw.

scrub

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly the line I was going to take.

Check w/outs if they come...
bet but fold to a CR on the turn/river unimproved yadda yada yada

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

edit: Incidently, I think this is more HPFAP, than SSH, not that it matters, but if people wanted to read up more on it, off the top of my head I don't think Ed touched on this type of situation.

[casinogosain]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm betting any 2 cards here if I'm Evan.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you raise preflop on the button with 98s in this scenario? What if the game is 10/20 or higher?

Once you're in and the flop comes and is checked to you, I agree.

-Ash

[scrub]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
passive opponents who will not checkraise Evan on the flop with a 4 or PP and will not bluff-checkraise the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

In my experience even passive, bad players go for a c/r with trips, either on the flop or the turn. I think that you are looking at a c/r attempt here like 80+% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

I'm assuming you mean you are looking at a c/r attempt 80% of the time you bet the flop and are called. Which means that 80% of the time a bad player calls you here, he has trips. That's just flat out wrong--if that were the case, the flop bet would make everyone fold an incredibly high percentage of the time, which it won't. It will win more than enough to be profitable, but but many bad opponents will still peel here with A high, overcards, a 3-flush, etc which they will often fold on the turn unimproved.

We don't care if they checkraise us when they actually do have trips on the turn--we're drawing dead anyway. We don't want them seeing the river with 6 pair outs or with A high that might call a river bet if the board double pairs below the queens but will likely fold the turn.

scrub

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
Live 4/8. Two bad players limp, Evan limps in the CO with KTo, bad SB completes, decent BB knuckles.

5 to the flop for 5 SBs. Flop is QQ4 rainbow. Checked to Evan. What is his action?

[/ QUOTE ]

Found this thread late it looks like. There are already a lot of good responses to this situation, and strangely enough, they all agree with me and sfer! /images/graemlins/smile.gif But yeah, If no one has a piece, almost everyone is folding. It's as simple as that. Nobody has a piece of this flop well more than enough for you to bet and show a profit. A also agree with the assessment that even in this game, a bad player will bet any pair and sometimes trips. There were players in this game capable of slowplaying trips, of course, but that doesn't mean someone has to have them.
-James

[The-Matador]

This is such an obvious bet it staggers me that it's even a question.

You going to win the pot more than 20% of the time, and that alone makes it correct. There are numerous other good things that can happen when you bet, as well. It shouldn't even cross your mind not to bet in this spot unless you are against a player who is counting out how much it will be to CR you as you reach for your chips, and even then I'd still bet (because it's probably a reverse tell unless I know this player isn't good enough for that).

Autobet 99.99% of the time here.

[frank_iii]

Hmm...I wonder at which limits this is applicable. Yesterday at $2/$4 I played a very similar hand. Sorry but I don't have PT here so this is from memory.

---

3 loose passives limp. I raise QTs on the button, blinds fold.

4 to the flop: JJX

Checked to me, I bet. Call. Call. Call.

Turn onward is somewhat irrelevant to this discussion, but anyway, it's a K.

Checked to me, I bet my OESD. 2 callers.

River is 8 or something. Checked through and they showed pocket 5s and ace high.

---

I don't know what I learned from this. I'd still play it the same, but loose passives love to call down enough to make the original poster's hand somewhat debatable IMO. <shrug>

[Evan]

You raised preflop and I didn't, that makes the flop bets much different.

[sfer]

I'm not real fond your your turn bet into 3 people.

[J.R.]

with a hand with a lot of outs and nill for showdown value.