Calling pushes in the end game

[11t]

I was just wondering what people had to say about calling requirements during the bubble/itm period of a tournament. I mean of course you should be looking for a premium hand but if you have a bigger stack should you loosen up your calling requirments so that a) people are less willing to push against you and b) you have the chips necessary to gamble even when you aren't getting the greatest odds. I have two hands here I was wondering what people have to say about them and what they would do.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (3 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t4815)
Button (t4450)
Hero (t4235)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t4400</font>

Now here is a little murkier situation and I was wondering what people would do here as well

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t2730)
Button (t3075)
SB (t1730)
Hero (t5965)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t1705</font>,

Are these both auto folds? I'll post what I did later if anybody cares.

[AtticusFinch]

I'd fold both of these, but push if I got in first.

[RobGW]

The end game is very read dependent. It would depend on my opponenets style. If they are playing tight, then I fold and steal. If they are playing loose aggressive then I may take a stand. Hand 1 with 55 you are at best a coin flip at worst a 4:1 dog. I'd fold and steal. With KT I may or may not call. You might be dominated, it may be a coin flip, or he may be pulling a move on you with nothing. As the big stack sometimes I make this call to keep them honest. Let them know that you will call them. It won't do much damage to you and even if you lose you still have the lead and can get the money back by stealing.

[Scuba Chuck]

2nd hand is a very EZ fold.

[Michael C.]

I'd fold both. In hand one, as pointed out, you're at best a slight favorite while you could be a big dog. In situation two if the SB is super loose and had been pushing every time it passed to him I'd consider it, but if you lose you're letting him back into the game and could get knocked out. Right now you're a dead lock to make it ITM and can afford to wait for chances where you're the clear favorite.

[ChrisV]

Hand 1 is a fold, but Hand 2 is a call against a good, aggressive SB. SB should be pushing a pretty large range of hands here. KT will easily win you chips on average here. You also get a chance to eliminate someone immediately, whereas if you lose you are not even close to crippled. There is also some advertising value here - people will think you will call pushes with KT, even though if you lose you probably won't do it again in the new situation.

[AA suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1 is a fold, but Hand 2 is a call against a good, aggressive SB. SB should be pushing a pretty large range of hands here. KT will easily win you chips on average here. You also get a chance to eliminate someone immediately, whereas if you lose you are not even close to crippled. There is also some advertising value here - people will think you will call pushes with KT, even though if you lose you probably won't do it again in the new situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

If ITM, i usually call with any pocket pair. gamble for 1st...

Or is this a leak in my game??

why is Hand1 a fold???

[SuitedSixes]

If with AA here, I think that Hand 1 is a call three-handed. Someone brilliant on here said, "Be satisfied with 3rd, gamble for 1st." This is it. In all-in situations I like hands that don't need to improve to be a winner, but if they improve are huge, like any pair and any ace.

I also call with Hand 2. I'm the chip leader, the call does not hurt my chances of finishing ITM if I lose, but does a great deal towards giving me the win. My stack will still be big enough to, pretty much, steal at will, especially 4-handed. It will also serve notice to the rest of the table that I will not be pushed around. If you fold here, what do you call with? Any ace? Any pair? Any suited king or queen? SB's range is too big to play this tight with such a big stack. What good is a big stick if you're not going to swing it?

This may very well be wrong, but I've decided that if I go down, I'm going to go down aggressively.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]

I've decided that if I go down, I'm going to go down aggressively.

[/ QUOTE ]

Same here, that's why I'd rather push with xx than call with KT. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I see very few pushing hands you aren't a dog against. I'd rather get an outrageous bluff called down than take one in the chest playing sheriff.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I've decided that if I go down, I'm going to go down aggressively.

[/ QUOTE ]

Same here, that's why I'd rather push with xx than call with KT. /images/graemlins/smile.gif I see very few pushing hands you aren't a dog against. I'd rather get an outrageous bluff called down than take one in the chest playing sheriff.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, Atticus, welcome to the board. I can tell that you're going to be a good one to have around. Secondly, I completely understand your argument for folding equity.

I just think that 3-handed you are going to have to call an all-in at some point and I think that 55 is just as good a point as any. I disagree with you here, I think that there are only 9 pushing hands that you are an underdog against, and the range of pushing hands here is much, much, bigger than 9.

As far as Hand 2, even if you lose you still have a 1200 chip lead which still preserves that valuable folding equity. You can make those chips back very easily.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]

First of all, Atticus, welcome to the board. I can tell that you're going to be a good one to have around.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks!

[ QUOTE ]
Secondly, I completely understand your argument for folding equity.

I just think that 3-handed you are going to have to call an all-in at some point and I think that 55 is just as good a point as any. I disagree with you here, I think that there are only 9 pushing hands that you are an underdog against, and the range of pushing hands here is much, much, bigger than 9.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, with 55 that's true. I was talking about KT specifically. I don't think it's so bad to call with 55.

[ QUOTE ]

As far as Hand 2, even if you lose you still have a 1200 chip lead which still preserves that valuable folding equity. You can make those chips back very easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

That argument also applies to calling with 7-2o. It's certainly a valid consideration that you have him covered, but in this case you don't have him covered by enough of a margin to call with a spurious holding IMO. You're getting less than 2/1, and you're going to be a dog against most pushing hands. I'd say wait for your own chance to push.

[Awesemo]

[ QUOTE ]
As far as Hand 2, even if you lose you still have a 1200 chip lead which still preserves that valuable folding equity. You can make those chips back very easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

This does not explain why calling would ever have a positive expectation. You are clearly a dog to the appropriate range of hands, and the more chips you have the less money an individual chip is worth.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1 is a fold, but Hand 2 is a call against a good, aggressive SB. SB should be pushing a pretty large range of hands here. KT will easily win you chips on average here. You also get a chance to eliminate someone immediately, whereas if you lose you are not even close to crippled. There is also some advertising value here - people will think you will call pushes with KT, even though if you lose you probably won't do it again in the new situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can see your line. I don't know if the call itself is +$EV, but I can definately see how your second point is. How blind of me not to notice that. Thanks.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
That argument also applies to calling with 7-2o. It's certainly a valid consideration that you have him covered, but in this case you don't have him covered by enough of a margin to call with a spurious holding IMO. I'd say wait for your own chance to push.


[/ QUOTE ]

Being BB had some bearing on my call here, but I wouldn't quite go with any two at this point as you're not to the magic 2:1. And I don't think that 72o is the worst hand to call with either heads-up.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
There is also some advertising value here - people will think you will call pushes with KT, even though if you lose you probably won't do it again in the new situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

But is this really a good thing? I'd rather have my opponents err in favor of pushing LESS in the endgame, not more.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]

There is also some advertising value here - people will think you will call pushes with KT, even though if you lose you probably won't do it again in the new situation.


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But is this really a good thing? I'd rather have my opponents err in favor of pushing LESS in the endgame, not more.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think ChrisV is actually "advertising" that this is the result of the call with KT. That SB will be worried about pushing any old hand against you, as your image is perceived as one who might call.

[ChrisV]

Why are you clearly a dog to the appropriate range of hands?

If I'm SB here, I guarantee you you aren't a dog to the range of hands I would be pushing in this spot.

If I give SB a pretty tight range, let's say:

Any pair
Any ace
Any king
Q8s-QJs, Q9o-QJo
JTs, J9s, JTo

KT wins a shade under 50% here (49.137%). With the blinds in the pot it's easily right to call. I think you're nuts if you're any tighter than that in SB. I'm quite a bit looser, so KT is a winner versus me.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
As far as Hand 2, even if you lose you still have a 1200 chip lead which still preserves that valuable folding equity. You can make those chips back very easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

This does not explain why calling would ever have a positive expectation. You are clearly a dog to the appropriate range of hands, and the more chips you have the less money an individual chip is worth.

[/ QUOTE ]

You bring up good points, I just think we have different ranges of hands. For me, KT is in the Top 37. I call because it doesn't always have a negative expectation. If I knew the raiser had any PP lower than TT, any A other than AK, and AT I call . . . so what's that 7 hands I'm not willing to call against? I think you just have a tighter range of calling hands with a big stack that will still be a big stack after a loss than I do. I don't call if I won't still be chip leader, and I don't call if I'm not in the BB.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]

I think ChrisV is actually "advertising" that this is the result of the call with KT. That SB will be worried about pushing any old hand against you, as your image is perceived as one who might call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh, great point! Upon further reflection, I think you're probably right.

As an aside, I've always loved the reaction I get when I make the old "call a 2/1 push for &lt; 1/3 of your stack with any two" move.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I think ChrisV is actually "advertising" that this is the result of the call with KT. That SB will be worried about pushing any old hand against you, as your image is perceived as one who might call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh, great point! Upon further reflection, I think you're probably right.

As an aside, I've always loved the reaction I get when I make the old "call a 2/1 push for &lt; 1/3 of your stack with any two" move.

[/ QUOTE ]

This kind of image nets you a bunch of free chips when you're in the BB.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you clearly a dog to the appropriate range of hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think "appropriate range of hands" should be replaced with "most hands I see pushed." Your range is probably much closer to optimal than the average player's. Thankfully, the average player is not very close to optimal at all, at least not in the 55s where I play /images/graemlins/wink.gif There, I rarely (not never, but not often) see a push with anything less than QT.

There is always room for adjusting for a read of your table.

[ChrisV]

I just ran some calculations for Hand 1 and assuming button's push range is, say:

AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q8s, JTs-J9s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K2o, QJo-Q8o, JTo-J9o

The ICM says I want to win 51.38% of the time and pokerstove has 55 winning 53.95% of the time versus that range, so narrowly a call. Eliminating the K5-K2 hands knocks around 1.8% off that margin, but it's still a call. There are two other factors: by folding I can try to engineer a better situation later - either getting a better EV allin, or the other stacks may have a confrontation. Also BB may wake up with a higher pair and call, which is a pretty bad deal as you will come third probably something like 85% of the time. The likelihood of BB having something he can call with (say 88 and up) is around 1 in 16.

I think basically it's close enough that it doesn't matter.

[Scuba Chuck]

As an aside, I've always loved the reaction I get when I make the old "call a 2/1 push for &lt; 1/3 of your stack with any two" move.

Well, I think you'll be disappointed on this forum. I'm pretty sure the *smarter* 2ers already get this. Besides, it's #2 on Daliman's list.

[ChrisV]

My range as SB here is in fact close to any two. I'd fold the terrible stuff but hands I'm pushing include 97o and 53s, for example. In the 200's I routinely see hands like that shown down from others in a spot like this.

Of course you have to take your read on SB into account, but say I give him an ultra-tight range, e.g.:

AA-22, AKs-A7s, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, AKo-A8o, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo

(and I think I'm being pretty generous assuming he's folding stuff like K9s and JT, but anyway....) then the pot odds STILL have it a clear call (win rate required to call is 38.44% or better, actual win rate is 40.07%). I can't be bothered with the ICM numbers, but I can't imagine they'd change that result given your large stack and the likelihood of a player being eliminated.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
As an aside, I've always loved the reaction I get when I make the old "call a 2/1 push for &lt; 1/3 of your stack with any two" move.

Well, I think you'll be disappointed on this forum. I'm pretty sure the *smarter* 2ers already get this. Besides, it's #2 on Daliman's list.

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant the reaction I get at the tables, but I hear you.

Thanks to everyone on this thread, by the way. This has been a very enlightening dicusssion.

[11t]

I folded hand 1 but I called hand 2 and he flipped over 86os and spiked the 8

[11t]

I based both of my judgments on how I felt about the players, in hand 1 the player was very tight, he was chip leader the majority of the tournament and just let himself get blinded down. He showed AK.

2nd hand the guy was very loose and I had folded my bb to a bunch of raises and he must have felt I was weak.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I folded hand 1 but I called hand 2 and he flipped over 86os and spiked the 8

[/ QUOTE ]

this is why you have to err on making the villain's range wide.

there is some chance he's going to push with total junk, but since we can't reasonably include 86o in the range, we definitely have to include borderline hands like K6 (which i would push with as SB). and not including K9s is just silly.

if you're willing to call with any 2 getting 2:1, shouldn't you be willing to call with much better than any 2 getting close to 2:1?

[schwza]

i would say the 55 is an easy fold b/c of the BB left to act. if i were the BB it'd be a tougher choice.

[schwza]

the only reason i would consider folding the KT hand is that i want to keep the bubble period going. with 1/2 the chips and relatively even other guys, i'm all-in pretty much every hand, and it'll be a lot of blinds to steal.

[Scuba Chuck]

Chris, if you changed this situation to where you are not the BB, would you still call?

Or rather, let's say exact same stack sizes. Button is the pusher, and you're the SB. Would you call here?

[ChrisV]

No (and I'd reraise allin if I was going to do anything).

My instinct is that it's a terrible call. I think it's better than my instinct gives it credit for, but still not great. The objections are:

- Raiser's hand will probably be a bit better. This isn't a big objection in view of the pot odds and the wide range he will still have.
- BB may overcall. If he does I am at least beaten and likely dominated.
- I have to call 200 more, so the pot odds aren't quite as good.
- If I fold, BB may act as policeman. I would prefer that. Also, he may have a better hand than me. If raiser has Ax and I make BB fold a small pair that's a minor disaster.
- I don't mind as much when the raiser is stealing from one of the other stacks. He's welcome to do that every round if he likes.

I think it's overall a bad call, but not horrible.