Blind Steal

[sfer]

Live 4/8. I openraise black K6o in the CO with a tight button behind me. He folds, SB folds, Evan 3-bets in the BB, I call.

Flop is 68Q two hearts. Evan bets, I call.

Turn is the K /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Evan bets, I call.

River is the 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Evan bets, I raise.

[molawn2mo]

ok... i'll bite.

why the river, raise? what will he call/raise with that you beat? will he fold with a small flushie?

[MoDOH]

I would have raised the Turn and when the 4:th flush card hit the river i would have checked...

[Schizo]

I don't know how well Evan knows your play, but considering Evan's caliber, I kind of like the river raise. I'm just curious as to why you didn't raise the turn. What was your thought process?

[Nate tha' Great]

I like a turn raise. He won't read you for having a made flush since he'd have expected you to have raised the flop with a four-flush. So I think he'll put that 3rd bet in a fair amount of the time, allowing you to 4-bet with the best of it.

[BottlesOf]

Niiiice, I like!

[sfer]

Evan thinks for a couple of seconds and calls. I table my hand and he turns over 99 with the 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif for a frush and I lose.

[Derek in NYC]

Why do you not raise the turn? You have a double scare card on the turn (overcard, /images/graemlins/heart.gif), plus you have outs if reraised. The river raise seems to have no EV against a player capable of laying down when beat.

[shadow29]

I'm raising the turn.

[gaming_mouse]

sfer,

1. why try to steal the blind against a good player with K6o?

2. what were your reasons for not raising the turn?

3. since you know evan is capable of betting w/out the heart here, the river raise is to get him to fold, right? you don't expect him to call w/ a worse hand, do you?

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
1. why try to steal the blind against a good player with K6o?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he's tighter than most players and will surrender his blinds more easily. And I will have position.

[ QUOTE ]

2. what were your reasons for not raising the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Mixing things up. Making mistakes. But at the time I thought I can get another bet out of a lot of A-high hands and medium pocket pairs on the river by calling the turn and betting if checked to on the river because I show a lot of bluffs against these guys and they rarely fold something to me with any showdown value.

[ QUOTE ]
3. since you know evan is capable of betting w/out the heart here, the river raise is to get him to fold, right? you don't expect him to call w/ a worse hand, do you?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, fold a smallish heart specifically.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]

Yeah, fold a smallish heart specifically.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is so important about a smallish heart?

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
What is so important about a smallish heart?

[/ QUOTE ]

I lose to a frush. Folding a frush is good for me. Not folding a small frush that would fold one time in three is bad.

[27offsooot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What is so important about a smallish heart?

[/ QUOTE ]

I lose to a frush. Folding a frush is good for me. Not folding a small frush that would fold one time in three is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

What three betting hands from a tight blind contain a low heart? small PP? I understand waiting till the river to raise HU in some situations, but I don't think a three heart board qualifies. Even when u do wait, I don't think raising is a good idea considering he's likely only going to call u with a better hand. I suppose if u thought he would call u down with a lot of other things b/c he understands that it's less than 50/50 u have a heart, it could be worth it. But I wouldn't try to justify this move by arguing that u can get a small heart to fold.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
What three betting hands from a tight blind contain a low heart? small PP?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any Ace. I had been getting way out of line so I would consider any Ace or any 2 Broadway cards in his 3-betting range preflop.

[ QUOTE ]
I suppose if u thought he would call u down with a lot of other things b/c he understands that it's less than 50/50 u have a heart, it could be worth it. But I wouldn't try to justify this move by arguing that u can get a small heart to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are two sides to this. One is that he could give up with a non-Broadway heart or that he could decide to look me up with a non-flush, most of which I beat. I took a non-standard line I took against a thinking opponent and I prefer raising the turn, but a river raise does put him to a decision and it gives him the opportunity to make a mistake. As it was, he had 99 with the 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. I think that is a very difficult call.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
Any Ace. I had been getting way out of line so I would consider any Ace or any 2 Broadway cards in his 3-betting range preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
I probably would've done it with A6 or better, an pair down to 55 or any 2 braodway excpet JT/QT/QJ, maybe some smaller suited kings too.

[ QUOTE ]
As it was, he had 99 with the 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. I think that is a very difficult call.

[/ QUOTE ]
It wasn't automatic, hence my hesitation.

As a side note, does anyone not bet the river in my spot? I don't think the bet is debatable but I expected some people to not like it.

[Derek in NYC]

Why bet the river? This guy sounds like he is going to bet it for you if you show any weakness whatsoever.

[Evan]

My hand is best very very often and I think I have a better chance to get money in the pot by betting than checking. I don't mean that just in the obvious sense either. For instance, if I checked I think sfer may have checked behind. Maybe not in this case, but in general my lead looks like a better spot for him to make me fold the best hand than if I checked.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
I lose to a frush. Folding a frush is good for me. Not folding a small frush that would fold one time in three is bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Duh, I guess that was a stupid question. But don't you mean 1 in 7? Why did you pick 1 in 3?

[Derek in NYC]

If you believe that your hand is the best, fine, bet it. I think this is a dubious conclusion. You hold a 1 card flush to the 9, which gives you the 4th or 5th nut hand (hard to say based on the problem description). From your perspective, I dont see any basis for you to conclude that your hand is good here. Sfer could easily have been raising with a hand like ace-rag, for instance, and could have been betting the draw.

On the other hand, I think you have an excellent justification for check calling, with the very very strong belief that Sfer will bet the river for you. You have previously been described by him as being willing to fold hands (even making "weak" folds, I believe). Sfer (if Im remembering this correctly) has described himself as having LAGgy tendencies, and he says that he was getting a bit out of line during this particular session. With these reads, given the existence of a very scary board, I say 100% of the time he will bet the river.

I will go even further and say that 1 card flushes are perfect opportunities to check-call and induce bluffs from TP hands without the case suit. Moreover, betting the non-nut flush exposes you to the problem of a raise (as you experienced.) In general, betting a 4th/5th nut flush hand I believe is a way to lose more when you're behind, and win less when you're ahead, particularly in a HU pot.

Therefore, I think check-calling is clearly correct here.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
Sfer could easily have been raising with a hand like ace-rag, for instance, and could have been betting the draw.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree that he may well have ace-rag, but when did he bet a draw?

[Derek in NYC]

I should have said redraw. If he had ace rag, he bet the flop because he raised preflop, and then he bet the turn on the redraw as a semibluff.

Never mind this, i misremembered the action.

[sfer]

Raise = 2 BBs.