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View Full Version : Mediocre QJo Blind Defense


J6o All In
02-06-2005, 05:17 AM
Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Fold the turn unimproved? Flop raise?

Turn: (6 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (12 BB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

Argus
02-06-2005, 06:04 AM
I like the flop. I agree that you call the 3-bet and fold unimproved on the turn. Since you did improve I agree a check-raise is in order here. To the 3-bet I call again, which you also did, and call down. I thought very hard for a way to justify a trifecta, but there are too many ways you lose. Middle two pair is a strong holding, but there are a lot of ways you can lose here. What do you think villain can be holding? Here's my considerations (in approximate order of likelihood):
AA, AK, KK, TT, KT, AT, A9, A8, AJ, AQ, KQ, JJ, QQ.

You beat most of those hands, and certainly the more likely holdings. However the possibility of a 3-bet that you have to call from the less likely ones makes me simply call the river.

JackWilson
02-06-2005, 08:50 AM
I see the possible holdings as:
AA-JJ, AK-AT, A5s

A bit conservative maybe, but I don't see him 3-betting you on the flop with QJ or KQ unless he's _extremely_ aggressive, so I'm going to discount those possibilities for now.

As things stand then (on the turn, where the questionable play is IMO), you're about a 54.447% - 45.533% dog, making a check-raise a bit too reckless IMO. With all the money in the pot, calling him down is fine, but you are most likely beat and have few clean outs (if any) so you don't want to put more money into the pot than necessary.

If we include ANY ace in his range of playable hands then you're a firm favourite if he would 3-bet you on that flop, again unlikely.

Altho the Q appears to be a good turn card, I don't think it improves your hand enough for a check-raise.