one-armed man, one-armed plan (low content)

[Slim Pickens]

Due to a recent incident in which my own inherent idiocy combined with a laughably-undersized ski jump landing, I am forced to suspend all two-armed activities for about six weeks. I’ve decided to ease my pain by getting somewhat serious (for a hobbyist anyway) about playing online SNG NLHE tournaments.

I play 11’s on Party right now. My immediate goal is to cash out my original bankroll ($500). I lost almost the whole thing through general uneducated beginner play at too high a level, but have built it back over the last two months after a lot of studying the basics. Now, my overall ROI is a stout +6% over a grand total of 235 tournaments (6’s, 11’s, and 22’s) and I’ve been able to cash out half my original bankroll. I think my play has improved immensely over that time, but I’d like to know for sure. This layup seems like the perfect opportunity to decide once and for all if I can be a winning player at this level. Here is my plan, on which I hope maybe someone will comment (good/bad/stupid idea?):

I will play 200 $11 SNG’s over a month or so, starting next Sunday upon my return from a non-gambling trip to Vegas, and consider them to be a sample free from learning curve pollution. If at the 200 mark my ROI is over 20% (about 93% winning confidence?), I’ll call myself a slowly-winning player at the 11’s, cash out the remaining original bankroll, and continue playing with the intention of moving up levels as my now-profit-only bankroll permits. Between 0% and 20%, consider myself a possible slow-loser and cash out what I feel I can to continue the experiment to a conclusive result. Negative ROI, evaluate money input as for any other hobby… supplement with bonus whoring. This is probably pocket change and drivel to a lot of you, but I’ve gotta start somewhere, right?

Slim

[lorinda]

Seems like a very sensible plan.

All the best with it, let us know how you get on.

Remember that as long as your bankroll is easily accessible, it's still part of your bankroll.

You should only need $110 or so on a given day, so the rest can be moved around for a little bit of bonus whoring, and a change of pace. (By that I mean low limit grinding, not smashing away merrily)
One thing that seems reasonably sure is that you're not going to do much serious damage to your finances with this plan, and even if you do happen to be a loser, 200 SNGs combined with reading is almost certainly going to turn you into a winning player if you're in that 7% confidence bracket.

Good luck.

Lori

[Slim Pickens]

Thanks Lori. It's always nice to get some affirmation. I'm forcing myself to take a break until the 12th after breaking my brain passing my PhD oral exams, save for some low-content 2+2 posting.

As for bankroll, I consider everything not allocated to bills to be part of my TOTAL poker roll, and I'm keeping more than the $350 SNG roll available for bonus whoring. Since I'm working on my overall poker dicipline, I need to stick to my bankroll plan as a necessary condition of success. "Cash out" just means not putting the money back into SNG's... maybe learning to multitable O8 as a break and to clear bonuses.

Slim