Set 3 hands in a row

[TomCollins]

Saw an amazing feat (at leats it seemed that way). The same player flopped a set 3 hands in a row.

So the odds of getting a pocket pair are 3/51 = 1/17. Then the odds of getting a set is (1-(46/48*45/47*44/46))~12.2%.

So the odds of both of these events are .7%. 3 times in a row is about 2.5 million to 1.

I must have screwed soemthing up, it can't be THAT rare. Normally I would have to play 250,000 hands to see this, assuming the hands are showed down. So that makes it even more rare.

[gaming_mouse]

The chance of getting dealt a pocket pair and flopping a set:

(13*6/(52 choose 2)) * (1 - (48 choose 3)/(50 choose 3))=0.00691476591

3 in a row:

0.00691476591^3, about 1 in 3024597.25

So over 3 million to 1.

However, since you only start counting once you see a set, the chance is really:

0.00691476591^2, about 1 in 20,914.382

[TomCollins]

Basically, I'm asking how long would I have to play before I saw such an event by any player. It's probably roughly once every million hands, since the chacnes we get to showdown are so rare, especially in NL.