PokerPhophecy - tracks Party SNG's

[MSUcougar]

I was playing a SNG tonight and one of my opponents said in chat that I had a pretty good ITM% and I asked him how he kept track of stats...

He linked me to www.pokerprophecy.com (http://www.pokerprophecy.com)

Check out the site... I'm curious what you guys think of the concept. It only has stats dating back to Jan. 21, so it looks like its brand new...

Looks like it could be pretty helpful... I'm thinking about purchasing it

[Jman28]

Interesting. I feel like it'd be worth a try for just $20. Anyone know anything about it?

[REL18]

Um excuse me incase u dont know this would be better then poker tracker. Thing is i typed in my name on sample and it was off

[deathpotato]

I looked myself up and it told me that I'm 1 for 25 or so since Jan 21. I've been on a bad run, but it hasn't been THAT bad. Seems like the database might be incomplete?

[MSUcougar]

[ QUOTE ]
I looked myself up and it told me that I'm 1 for 25 or so since Jan 21. I've been on a bad run, but it hasn't been THAT bad. Seems like the database might be incomplete?

[/ QUOTE ]
It says on the site that it has stats for 90% of the regular SNG's since Jan 21... They might be still kinda testing it or something.

[Mr_J]

Interesting. It seems to think my IP has used the 5 trials already.

[SuitedSixes]

What does it consider a win? Just 1st place?

[deathpotato]

I think it's 1-3

[AtticusFinch]

They claim to have 90% of SNGs tracked, but they only have about 30% of my games since the 21st. Great idea for a product, but not enough detail to supplant Poker Tracker.

[Irieguy]

It says I have played 72 SNGs since 1/21.

I've played 364.

They may have a few bugs to work out. If the data was reliable, it would obviously be very helpful.

Irieguy

[boondockst]

does it supposedly overlay the info of "fish" or "average" quickly onto the table? The SNGs at the $22 level fill way too fast to check back and forth between a web database and your screen.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
They claim to have 90% of SNGs tracked, but they only have about 30% of my games since the 21st. Great idea for a product, but not enough detail to supplant Poker Tracker.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't suggest it ove PT, but in addition, why not? $20!!!

-Jman28

[lorinda]

I'm practising with variations of typing "lorinda: <lots of spaces> lorinda finished in third place and won $60" to see if I can get a 110% ITM.

Not working as of yet, but It's my plan to get it right

Lori

[spentrent]

It's moronic. They can NEVER prove that the stats are accurate... especially if one can verify that HIS OWN stats are way off.

[Slim Pickens]

I would consider it as soon as the claims on the website have some credibility. "Currently the software is able to record over 90% of the tables." Based on what others have reported, they did pretty well on me: 12/25. If they really got it in the 80% range I'd probably get it.

Slim

[AleoMagus]

I'm going to disagree with many of the opinions in this thread and say that I think this is the start of something very interesting.

Personally, I don't think it really matters that it only gets 90% (or whatever) because as time passes, whatever games it picks up will start to look like a real sample anyways. It doesn't need to be perfect and catch every game. And if it gets to the point where it does... that will be even better.

My complaint, and I hope this is rectified, is that it is currently useless. It's impossible to go to any low stakes SNG, and pick each player and search their stats with enough time to decide to play or not.

What should be do-able however (and those in the know can correct me if I'm wrong), is to add a few more stats, and categorize players with a very simple ranking system. Then, incorporate this into an automatically fed view that you can see as soon as you open a table. You could even do a full table evaluation based on your own criteria for the number and kind of player results that you want to play against.

Now, the question is, is this good, or could this have some negative side effects. I'm not sure exactly, as this is my initial thinking, but I suspect that this could benefit good players if it takes off and evolves, even if they do not purchase the software . I'd love to think that good players would all use this and look at my stats before they sat down with me.

One other thing... after a year of this thing running, I suspect that we will have a much better idea of maximum possible ROI, and other stats for each level. The top 50 alone should prove that.

Oh yeah, and it will be a lot harder for players to come on here and brag about phony stats, cause we'll just have to ask for a screen name.

I just searched Gigabet... I wish I had a 58% ITM in $1000 tourneys. lol

I will be buying this, and I would pay five times as much for some kind of instant player view at the table. Actually, I'd pay more than that

Regards
Brad S

[AleoMagus]

Just saw this on the purchase page

[ QUOTE ]
You will also receive our next update, version 2.0 for free! This version includes a software program that will automatically search a table and provide you with the statistics for every player at that table. Version 2.0 is scheduled for release later this year.



[/ QUOTE ]

Can't wait

Regards
Brad S

[AleoMagus]

Ok some more thoughts....

This could have some negative effects if it takes off also:

1) bad players could become aware of it and become embarrased about their results. When good (or more likely, mediocre) players start berating the fish in conversations, players will realize the info is out there and may shy away from SNGs if they play poorly. Unlikely, but possible.

2) Bad and mediocre players might buy this and start to notice "hey that player who keeps pushing has some really good stats. I would have thought his crazy aggressive style sucked, but it appears he does a lot better than my min raising style". This could wise up players, but also seems unlikely, as bad players will be unlikely customers.

Still, some thoughts.

Also, I emailed them with some suggestions and invited them to come here and answer questions and comment about the product. Hopefully they show up (or have always been here, as might be the case).

Regards
Brad S

[AdamSchultz]

Hello,

This is the owner of Poker Prophecy. Some of you had some questions that I will try to answer:

1. Version 2.0 will have an auto search of the table, it comes out in May/April timeframe and is free for all who buy the current version. As it stands now, the product is limited for pre-game use and is really only useful for in-game use because, as mentioned, the searches take a few seconds.

2. We have had some problems recently with our data collection. We tested this all before hand, but unfortunately we recently decided to make an "improvement" that turned out to cause us to miss data. This problem is now solved. 5 testers have also been recruited that are helping us identify any problems we may have in the future.

3. Version 3.0 will be out next year. Until then it is not possible to break down 1st through 3rd place. To do so would require us to actually be at the table throughout the game. Party Poker lets you open 4 tables at once. I'm sure you can do the math as to how many computers we would need. (although we have figured out a partial way around this)

Hope this clears everything up. We do have a 30 day money back guarantee (any reason) so if you don't believe me about the data taking improving (or rather going back to the accuracy we achieved in beta) you can try it for yourself.

Best Regards,

Adam Schultz

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
When good (or more likely, mediocre) players start berating the fish in conversations

[/ QUOTE ]

Well done Aleo. Here's chat from a 30+3 tonight:

itsinmyblood: hey rip
itsinmyblood: i just looked at ur stats
...
itsinmyblood: u arnt making money
itsinmyblood: u lier
itsinmyblood: liar
itsinmyblood: 29 percent win
itsinmyblood: bad bad bad
bluu32: how do u check peoples stats?
itsinmyblood: she only won 53 times out of 178
anger_son02: how doyou know?
itsinmyblood: yep, us real pros know how to get the edge on who we are playing
bluu32: /stats itsinmyblood
itsinmyblood: i just opened this name threee days ago
itsinmyblood: 66
bluu32: how do u check peoples stats?
itsinmyblood: i dont remember
anger_son02: ....
bluu32: fu XXX
anger_son02: no
anger_son02: you know
itsinmyblood: oh thats nice
itsinmyblood: forget it now bluu
anger_son02: you just dont want us to see yours
bluu32: yup
bluu32: hes prolly 2-278
itsinmyblood: fine whatever, u will see i have won 5 out of 9 tonight
anger_son02: ok
anger_son02: i dotn care who is the best
bluu32: tell us how to check then
anger_son02: i just wanna check mine
itsinmyblood: yep, i suk

[viennagreen]

wouldn't you only need 1 computer for every 24 SNG tables?--- utilizing all the Party skins? (party, empire, multi, eurobet, pokernow, intertops... are there more?)

[Mr_J]

I wouldn't worry about negative effects at lower buyins. Most people will never take poker seriously enough to care to go to this sort of trouble (or the trouble of religiously reading a poker board to improve their game).

[AleoMagus]

Is your database going to be ongoing, or will you dump info after a while? In other words, if a player plays 10,000 SNGs this year, will they all show up, or will you only keep the most recent 500, 1000, 5000, etc...?

I am assuming that if a player changes their screen name, you will not be able to tie the past results with future results?

How are your 'recent results' calculated?

Are any additional stats going to be incorporated?

I'd like to see...

-SNGs/month average
-ROI, even if only an estimate based on an equal ITM finish distribution.
-Average simultaneous SNGs

Also, what are the features that you are planning on including in the V2 autosearch?

I'd like to see a quich evaluation which could even be customizable. Something like an immediately visible ITM & ROI and maybe associated category definitions like 'fish', 'expert', etc...

Regards
Brad S

[byronkincaid]

Does it tell you what Buy in people are playing? I see the same people at diiferent buy ins all the time. The stats may show a player as good who's played a load of 10s and jumped up to play one 30 for example.

[AleoMagus]

Yes, it has a total, but also breaks the results down by buy-in

http://www.pokerbloodhound.citymax.com/i//screenshot.JPG

I hope it's ok to post this, I pulled it right off that site

Regards
Brad S

[byronkincaid]

Seems a strange word "better". Better than?

[ReDeYES88]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When good (or more likely, mediocre) players start berating the fish in conversations

[/ QUOTE ]

Well done Aleo. Here's chat from a 30+3 tonight:

itsinmyblood: hey rip
itsinmyblood: i just looked at ur stats
...
itsinmyblood: u arnt making money
itsinmyblood: u lier
itsinmyblood: liar
itsinmyblood: 29 percent win
itsinmyblood: bad bad bad
bluu32: how do u check peoples stats?
itsinmyblood: she only won 53 times out of 178
anger_son02: how doyou know?
itsinmyblood: yep, us real pros know how to get the edge on who we are playing
bluu32: /stats itsinmyblood
itsinmyblood: i just opened this name threee days ago
itsinmyblood: 66
bluu32: how do u check peoples stats?
itsinmyblood: i dont remember
anger_son02: ....
bluu32: fu XXX
anger_son02: no
anger_son02: you know
itsinmyblood: oh thats nice
itsinmyblood: forget it now bluu
anger_son02: you just dont want us to see yours
bluu32: yup
bluu32: hes prolly 2-278
itsinmyblood: fine whatever, u will see i have won 5 out of 9 tonight
anger_son02: ok
anger_son02: i dotn care who is the best
bluu32: tell us how to check then
anger_son02: i just wanna check mine
itsinmyblood: yep, i suk

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you just look the guy up and flip the stats right back around. "Hey man, way to climb the ladder a little too fast and smack your head at the top. Way to go!!"

Player itsinmyblood
Games played 22
Wins 8 (36.36%)
Losses 14 (63.64%)
Average value wagered $36.82
Players with better winning percentage 42782
Players with same winning percentage 0
Players with worse winning percentage 126937
$30 Table: 6 wins / 8 losses
$20 Table: 1 wins / 1 losses
$50 Table: 1 wins / 4 losses
$100 Table: 0 wins / 1 losses
Player's recent performance No change

[yoshi_yoshi]

[ QUOTE ]
Seems a strange word "better". Better than?

[/ QUOTE ]

better than he usually does...?

[El Maximo]

I hate this program. How will I be able to come here and brag about my ficticious ROI?

[TheAmp]

Hi Adam,

Great idea, but I think it would be better if some major problems were solved before the release. for example, It is clear that the database does not include 90% of the Sng's as promised (its a huge 10% as my dad would say).
30% seems closer to the real figure and you lost some reliability there.

I agree with aleomagus that a one word conclusion (pro, fish, etc..) is essential.
Also, it would be great if it would be possible to see the stats ON THE TABLE (with a downloadable plug in).

Thanks, and good luck with our product.

[1C5]

Yes, I agree this has some great possibilities to become great.

[AleoMagus]

Yeah, when I asked about the recent results calculation, that's what I was referring to. I'd love to know that calculation. How many SNGs it is referring to as recent? It should be at least 100 to mean anything and I am guessing it isn't that much. A flat 10% might be even better, like the most recent 10% of all SNGs. This way if a player plays break even poker for a year and then suddenly comes alive, we'd get a true representation.

I also do not like the way it is formatted like:

8 wins/14 losses

I know it's quick math but I'd just prefer something like

36.36% ITM / 22 SNGs

And like I have mentioned, even an estimate of ROI based on an even finish distribution. I know this is easy math again, but it would be nice for quick reference until they can solve the 1/2/3 breakdown situation.

I suppose I could just memorize something approximate like:

25% ITM = -25% ROI
30% ITM = -9% ROI
35% ITM = 6% ROI
40% ITM = 23% ROI
45% ITM = 36% ROI
(and all the values in between)

33% becomes an important critical value, because with an even distribution, this is the break even point.

Regards
Brad S

[TheAmp]

Another idea:
Adding an option to buy the product with party poker money.

[AleoMagus]

Or neteller

Regards
Brad S

[Mr_J]

Use someone elses nick? I agree neteller should be an option.

[Vetstadium]

I just ordered the above product but was wondering how effective can it be when you are 4 or 8 tabling. Maybe in the future they can have the stats put next to the players name on the table for you already. That would be a lot easier seeing a small stat sheet next to there name instead of having to search each one.

[Jman28]

bump

[morello]

Use the fish to increase your stack!

Hilarity has ensued.

[AgentSq]

I saw this post on Sunday and thought well for $20 what the hey.

There is obvious room for improvement on the information provided - however that said the information is of use in its present form, although I look forward to the V2 that will automatically grab the info for all the players at a table.

I am a big fan of poker tracker as I think it has helped me alot. But one of the things that I was surprised at is the summary sheet which shows that 90% of the players I have played I have encountered only the once. I dare say that at the higher buy ins this would not be the case but certainly at my $20-$30 level this has proved to be true.

However this prophecy database does have enough data (all be it incomplete) on each player to be useful. It is early days, but I have used it playing 2 tables and have enough time to look everyone up and to add a note where appropriate.

I have found the win% together with the $ levels players have played at to be useful. I have found a fair few players with 50+ games with an ITM of less than 20% - and it is these same players that turn over T9 on a T high flop to an all in bet on level 2.

In summary I think that for $20 this is a bargain. Poker tracker will provide information on yourself - Prophecy will tell you about the people you are playing. There is a ton of improvement that could be made but even as it stands I would give it 7/10.

[rwanger]

I'm a little concerned about this product myself. At first I thought it would be bad for online poker, but then considered that if good players stay away from me, it would be helpful. But really, wouldn't everyone just end up seeking out the fish. And since probably many of the really bad players come and go so quickly, it would be of limited use? The best players probably know who to stay away from anyway, and even so, they're probably playing 4 tables anyway, and 1 opponent out of 40 isn't going to make a huge difference.

And ethically, it doesn't seem right to me. I almost think poker tracker is pushing it, but, at least it is only giving me information for the games that I have actually been involved in. Collecting data on other players styles and selling it seems pretty unfair don't you think? I know many of us are in this for the money, but nonetheless, shouldn't we draw the line somewhere?

Let's hear an ethical discussion about this...

[Vetstadium]

I don't think it is unethical they have a leaderboard on party poker although not for SNG's exclusively still there. I am using if to the first time today in a SNG for the first time. I usually multi 4 table so wouldn't be that helpful. At my table I noticed 4 players plus 33% ITM which at least gives me the idea they know what they are doing (really can't get a read on a player with only say 5 tournaments, but someone with over 100 and say a 39%ITM I may respect there raise a little more etc. Even though I looked up my name and it says recent play Worse I have no idea what recent play means though.

[Mr_J]

This is completely ethical IMO. SNGs are a competition. You want to know everything that you can about the opponents so you can beat them. This happens in business, sports, politics etc etc so why not poker?

This software doesn't tell you everything about your opponents, just whether they are profitable or not over the sample of data collected.

[Irieguy]

Yeah, this is a good point. Is it ethical?

Let's say you were a live high-stakes poker player and you knew that one of your opponents played differently when he was having financial difficulties. You learned this through observing his play and listening to him at the table.

Is it ethical to dig through his trash and look at his bills to see if he is paying on time? Once the papers are in the trash on the street it's no longer his personal property. Also, this information is available to anybody willing to look through his trash. So it's possible to take either side of the argument from an ethics standpoint... but most would agree that this type of behavior is crosing the line.

I think the problem with PokerProphecy from an ethics standpoint is that it breaches the spirit of the game. You are not "supposed" to have access to information about your opponents' play when you are not there to observe it. Even if you were a live tourney player and you watched WPT tapes of your opponents before playing with them you would have to physically watch their play.

So, I'm not sure that it's unethical, but it certainly pushes the envelope with regard to game integrity. I don't so much mind if people are digging through my trash... it's just a bit of a disappointment to know that I have to become a trash-digger in order to keep up.

Irieguy

[Slim Pickens]

The ethics of pokertracker and datamining were discussed some a few weeks ago here. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=begin&Number=1600254&Forum =All_Forums&Words=Online%20collusion&Searchpage=0& Limit=25&Main=1600254&Search=true&where=sub&Name=2 0850&daterange=1&newerval=1&newertype=m&olderval=1 &oldertype=w&bodyprev=#Post1600254) My take is if it's not outlawed by the sites, it's moral in the poker world. If the sites chose not to disallow this sort of product, then I'll use it. If you don't like this product being used, play at a site that doesn't allow it.

Prophecy's creator coming here and doing a little sales pitch was encouraging, although I have to admit I was originally a little put off by the 90% claim turning out to be a bit overly optimistic.

Slim

[The once and future king]

[ QUOTE ]
When good (or more likely, mediocre) players start berating the fish in conversations

[/ QUOTE ]

With utmost certaintity idiot table captians or titlting aholes will go lol I looked you up on pprophecy and your ITM is only 20% etc. The whole table will see this and go check it out and probably do free searches on themselves. They will then see how much the suck or dont in black and white.

All things considered I think we would be better of if we mass email party and ask them to block the method by which this data is being mined. It could have disastrous consequences.

[ozzy]

Will changing your screen name effectively hide your past information from other players? I assume it would. Also, how do you suppose they are populating their database? What method of data collection do they have which allows them to gather ITM finishes, but not 1st-3rd breakdowns? Is PartyPoker selling them the information?

I don't see anything wrong with publishing results and selling the data if those results are in the public realm. But, if the results are not public, or available to the general public, then I think there are legal problems with this product. Wouldn't this violate Antitrust laws?

I'm no expert in these things, but something seems improper about this.

I also would like to know how truly comprehensive the data is. 90% is clearly not a valid promise.

[AleoMagus]

I'm not a computer guy so this is just unqualified speculation, but...

I think this would be very hard if not impossible for party to stop from happening.

After all, it's just pulling the top three finishers from each SNG played right? Couldn't someone simply modify the software on their end to accumulate this data just by refreshing the lobby and monitoring which players are final three for each tourney #. Maybe I'm way off here, but I just think that Party might have no way of controlling this at all.

I'm curious about what people who actually have some idea how this is being done think. Could party stop this?

I remain positive about pokerprophecy, but time will tell. If Party can do something to stop it's use, and have the will to do so, I hope they do not do it anytime soon as I'd like to see this take off for a little while at least.

Regards
Brad S

[mosch]

I really can't believe how many people think this is great.

The fact that one player here has already seen somebody talking about it at the tables is evidence to me that it could be a real spoiler.

What would be less fun for a fish than having some angry player say 'you've only been in the money 13 of your last 127 tournaments, you retard"? Especially if this was accurate.

For you people who are raving about the possibilities... how do you actually plan to apply this knowledge to your game?

[AleoMagus]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see anything wrong with publishing results and selling the data if those results are in the public realm. But, if the results are not public, or available to the general public, then I think there are legal problems with this product.

[/ QUOTE ]

But the results are public by their very nature aren't they? Nothing stops me from looking at any table I want. Pokerprophecy is just doing it on a mass scale.

As far as how ethical it is, I have to say that I don't have too much problem with it. it just changes the nature of the game a little. Look at competitive chess for example. Those players are all rated according to a system and that info alone tells a great deal about the strength of a player. Having never seen a 1200 rated player play, if I sit down with him in a rated game, I know that his rating will affect the kind of game I'll play against him. That doesn't mean it's unethical that I have that info.

Similarly, if I'm in a live multi and on my break I go up to a friend and say "I have joe bloggins at my table. Do you know anything about him?", is it unethical for my fiend to say he's weak tight?

Now I know that Pokerprophecy takes this a lot farther, but it's not like it's cheating or anything. I still have to play poker well if I want to win.

Regards
Brad S

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]

What would be less fun for a fish than having some angry player say 'you've only been in the money 13 of your last 127 tournaments, you retard"? Especially if this was accurate.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree: this is a serious problem.

As for the legal issues, I'm not a copyright expert, but I am a law student, and I believe Party Poker has a valid legal claim for copyright infringement against them. This is similar to the newspaper plagiarism cases. Just because the data is publicly available doesn't mean anyone can copy it and sell it, just like you can't record radio broadcasts and sell them.

The trouble is that the online poker sites operate in a sort of legal grey zone already, and may not be able to effectively avail themselves of U.S. courts.

Ethically I have no problem with it. Players keep records on each other in any sport. Chess competitors can see the full transcript of every match their opponent has ever had.

Still, I'd rather see it gone. I think it's seriously dumping chlorine into the fish pond.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's seriously dumping chlorine into the fish pond.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well said. I agree.

Irieguy

[ColdestCall]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's seriously dumping chlorine into the fish pond.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well said. I agree.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I agree with this. I see bad players get berated constantly for their play, by ill-mannered table coaches who call them "morons," "idiots," and much worse, and the number of bad players does not seem to be decreasing.

Losing players know that they are losing - they see their account balance going down, and they see it show up on the credit card balance when they reload. However, most of them keep playing. They either can't stop, or they don't care enough about the money they are losing to stop, or they really find the losses are a fair price to pay for the pleasure of playing cards. I doubt that they will stop playing because some wiseguy quantifies what they already know - they'd rather turn chat off first. And, for every one that does stop, there will be three more to take their place, because we are in the early stages of online poker growth, not the late ones.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
I see bad players get berated constantly for their play, by ill-mannered table coaches who call them "morons," "idiots," and much worse, and the number of bad players does not seem to be decreasing.

[/ QUOTE ]
This was my initial reaction, but consider: it's easy enough to laugh off random insults from the jerks that populate the internet, especially when they're most often handed out right after you hand someone a bad beat and take all their money. It's also easy to suspend disbelief that you are a losing player if you don't keep records and lose money incrementally. However, when stats of exactly how much money you've really lost are thrown in your face, it's an entirely different matter.

[ QUOTE ]
And, for every one that does stop, there will be three more to take their place, because we are in the early stages of online poker growth, not the late ones.

[/ QUOTE ]

I sure hope you're right!

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
Losing players know that they are losing

[/ QUOTE ]

They do, but they think it's bad luck usually. If they see that their opponents have all this information, it'll scare them. They might realize that they have something to learn.

Also, what about all the people playing for fun? I think this'll greatly discourage them. If I wanted to play for fun and people started talking about my ITM% and information on other players too, I'd feel that I'm at a real disadvantage. What if they know my hole cards too? Takes the fun out of it.

-Jman28

[ColdestCall]

You and Atticus both raise good points about losing players, and I can't really disagree with them, but I think you are underestimating people's NEED to gamble. Everyone knows that the house has the edge in casino games, and a lot of people even know what the percentage they can be expected to lose is, and yet they just keep coming. Even confronted with the exact stats of their online poker losses, most losers will come up with all sorts of rationalizations to keep playing. I really believe that online poker, and poker in general, is entering a phase where it's growth will astound even the most optimistic of us, and that something like this program will have about as much effect on slowing SNG's as a mosquito hitting a car windshield. JMHO, of course, I could be wrong. Time will tell. Soon.

[sofere]

IMO I don't think this program will have a recognizable effect on the number of fish in the sea. Hell, I'm a fish and I'll still gonna play even knowing the program is out there /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

The fact is that the number of people who buy and use this program will be minute compared to the number of players out there. And a large percentage of those who do buy the program will be smart enough not to disturb the fish.

The only thing that I think will disturb the fish is that someone quoting their stats might spook them in that they might think they are in over there head (i.e. their opponents actually do research on other players, while they're just playing for fun). But I think inherently, even the bad players know that people who talk trash are mostly talking out of their butts. And most won't even believe the stats that the trash talkers quote.

[sofere]

IMO I don't think this program will have a recognizable effect on the number of fish in the sea. Hell, I'm a fish and I'll still gonna play even knowing the program is out there /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

The fact is that the number of people who buy and use this program will be minute compared to the number of players out there. And a large percentage of those who do buy the program will be smart enough not to disturb the fish.

The only thing that I think will disturb the fish is that someone quoting their stats might spook them in that they might think they are in over there head (i.e. their opponents actually do research on other players, while they're just playing for fun). But I think inherently, even the bad players know that people who talk trash are mostly talking out of their butts. And most won't even believe the stats that the trash talkers quote.

Thats my $.02

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
It's also easy to suspend disbelief that you are a losing player if you don't keep records and lose money incrementally.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very true in B&M, but online you have to keep funding your account. I'm sure there are many slow losers in casinos that think they are winners - think slot machine players.

[e_fermat]

I concur. I don't think it's going to have an appreciable effect on the number of fish out there. I agree with the point that most who will use it "properly" will go out of the way to not disturb the fish. In any case, even those who do, where are the fish gonna go if they want to play poker recreationally? They could go back to ring games where people are already datamining with PokerTracker and have someone say: "you're an idiot, no wonder you only win 35.77% of your hands at showdown".

As a sidenote, I can't wait to play this "Irieguy" dude, it looks like he sucks:

Player irieguy
Games played 74
Wins 17 (22.97%)
Losses 57 (77.03%)
Average value wagered $30
Players with better winning percentage 84616
Players with same winning percentage 0
Players with worse winning percentage 88067
$30 Table: 17 wins / 57 losses
Player's recent performance No change

This shows the need to be VERY careful about the sample size and that most of the many fish will have gone broke and won't play again before they reach a statistically significant sample size.

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


As a sidenote, I can't wait to play this "Irieguy" dude, it looks like he sucks:

Player irieguy
Games played 74
Wins 17 (22.97%)
Losses 57 (77.03%)
Average value wagered $30
Players with better winning percentage 84616
Players with same winning percentage 0
Players with worse winning percentage 88067
$30 Table: 17 wins / 57 losses
Player's recent performance No change

This shows the need to be VERY careful about the sample size and that most of the many fish will have gone broke and won't play again before they reach a statistically significant sample size.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's my concern too. My recent bad run has been well publicized and extended over 400 SNGs (of which pokerprophecy only caught 74... I was running about that badly for over 200 SNGs). But my ITM% over my past 1000 is 41.5%, so i'm worried that the data capture isn't good enough. Aleo mentioned that it doesn't matter whether it catches all games or not as long as it's a random sampling. He's right, as long as the data captured is significant in quantity. How many fish are going to play enough SNGs such that PProph. is able to capture 300+?

The good news is that you can see how big the sample size is when you look at the page, so you can decide for yourself whether or not 74 SNGs means anything. The bad news is that if you want an instant data overlay on your screen with the words "fish, pro, average, etc", then you need to be careful about how many SNGs you are actually using to apply these terms.

I searched several winning players just for fun, and most of them had horrible ITMs (except Gigabet, 58% ITM at the 1000s), some of whom I know haven't been running bad. So, they were just randomly capturing a few of the SNGs where that player was missing the money. I would hate to sit down with StupidSucker or NegativeEV and have the label "FISH" over their avatar.

As the data pool grows, this problem will dissipate, obviously. So I think that eventually it should be able to help you identify the sharks pretty well.

Irieguy

[AA suited]

dumb questions:
1) How are they able to capture data on all SnG's?

2) i take it you use PokerProphecy to estimate level of opposition AFTER the SnG starts? I can't see it being that useful for table selection since SnGs fill up SOOO fast.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
Still, I'd rather see it gone.

[/ QUOTE ]
Agreed. Pandora’s Box implications for sure... I'd like it best if all the players at the table played anonymously through randomly-generated aliases, and if sites start doing that, I'll probably play on those sites preferentially. That being impossible right now, I'm starting to get excited about the various Poker Prophecies I shall receive.

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's seriously dumping chlorine into the fish pond.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sure... but is the concentration high enough to be lethal? Poker fish are unbelievably hardy. They endure all manner of self-inflicted psychological and financial abuse to continue swimming. Table coaches with Poker Tracker didn't stop them. The people playing for fun aren't deterred by hearing about their exorbitant VPIP, so why should some other stupid acronym like ITM be any different to them? My guess, and this is just my wild uneducated guess, is that the fish will keep swimming as long as the WSOP on TV keeps stocking.

Slim

[AdamSchultz]

Hello Everyone! This post is from the owner of Poker Prophecy. I have been following this post and have been a little torn about if I should explain how we get our data and the things we are working on. I decided that it would be best to explain things, so here it is:

Party Poker changed a couple things last week that threw us for a loop so we didn't hit close to 90% for about a week (more like 30%). We should be back to close to 90% as of yesterday.

However, our new data collection program that we should be getting in about within a month will be solid, and I mean really solid, at above 90%. Probably closer to 95%.

Right now we scan all the tables using 18 different scanners. We subdivide the tables into a proportion so that all 18 measure 1/18th of the total. Then it monitors all tables in this range in a loop. The problem is, that it takes about 60 seconds to 120 seconds to make this loop depending on the time of day. If a SNG table goes from 4 to 2 in that time, we don't catch it. It is simply a game not played as far as our database is concerned.

What the new program will do, is only monitor new tables as they pop up, instead of looping. So one session will monitor $5/$1 NL Holdem 3 Players, and when a new table pops up it will grab it (usually once every 30 seconds). Enough applications will be run so that we catch every bet/table type. This way, instead of looping through the tables, our software just sits there until the next one comes up. No more randomness of wondering if the table will go away in the 1 to 2 minute timeframe.

I think you can see this will be a significant improvement. Just be patient our baby is still growing, you will see a very marked improvement from us in all aspects. The sales are there, so we have the money to make sure we continually get better.

Best Regards,

Adam Schultz

[Gigabet]

When it is recording the step stt, does it record fourth place as a win or loss in the step 5?

[AdamSchultz]

Gigabet,

We only monitor the regular SNG tables. Due to the confusion that would result in monitoring step or tournament style tables (as you just alluded to) I don't anticipate changing this anytime soon.

[Michael C.]

OK, my two yen. I think it's cool that he's making this program, but I don't see what the big deal is other than table selection. Once you're sitting at a table, it doesn't take too long to figure out who the fish are. But unless Poker Prophecy tells you what kind of fish- too aggressive, too passive, bluffs too much, too solid, I think it could mislead you. OK, so this player is betting all in here, do I call because he's a fish? Sure it could help you sometimes, but I'd rather rely on my own observations at the table. I also play mostly 109 SNG's, and I see a lot of the same players over and over, so I can usually tell who I should respect bets from. Maybe if I tried the program I've feel different about it. Also, and I may be stupid about this, but I don't want to run away from any opponents at the table. If you don't play against good opponents how do you get better? And there are usually enough weak 109 players to give me somewhat of an edge. Finally, as is pointed out on here over and over and over again, ROI stats don't matter until you get to 1000 SNG's, right? If that's the case, don't we already know about opponents who have played that many? And the ones that haven't, how does the program really help us that much?

[yoshi_yoshi]

[ QUOTE ]
This shows the need to be VERY careful about the sample size and that most of the many fish will have gone broke and won't play again before they reach a statistically significant sample size.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good point. Personally though, I think I'd be using this program not to track the fishes, but to track long-term winning players instead. These are the players who shouldn't be affected by sample size, because in a short time, they'd be playing a relatively large amount of SNGs.

Once ver.2 comes out with the real-time stats... In the 10+1 levels, at least, I'm sure that if I only played in tables with no other long term winners, I could kick up my ROI by at least 5%. In higher levels, people could probably achieve a similar increase in ROI by sitting in tables with at max one or two other long-term winners, depending on how high the buy-in actually is.

So I wouldn't be looking around for people with the 20% ITM and 30 SNGs, but rather at the ones with 40+ ITM and 1000 SNGs.

[Gigabet]

There are stats of my play in a 1000 stt. So apparently you are monitoring them, at least at one point you were. I am only interested in the step 5 info...and since I am Gigabet /images/graemlins/cool.gif you should add the step 5s into your database. Thank you in advance for changing your whole program based on my wants and needs.

Gigabet

[GauchoFish]

i'd like to add that my stats were off as far as total SNG's played but was correct to within one percentage point for wins and losses (i'm assuming that means cashes and bust outs). i paid my $20 and i aint afraid to admit it...at least it'll tell me if somebody plays these things often

[AdamSchultz]

Well you are Gigabet and if Michael Jordan wants different basketballs I guess you get him different basketballs.

Let me work on it. I'll let you know when its done.

[ArturiusX]

The concept defenitly has potential.

Get this program well oiled and it'd be a fine addition to the 2+2ers program aresonal.

[AdamSchultz]

Gigabet,

We have resumed monitoring of all step tables. It actually wasn't a problem at all.

Adam

[Gigabet]

Thank you, I will be certain to advertise your software....to my friends.

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
Well you are Gigabet and if Michael Jordan wants different basketballs I guess you get him different basketballs.

Let me work on it. I'll let you know when its done.

[/ QUOTE ]

Awe-inspring. /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

[Michael C.]

If guys like Gigabet and some of the rest of you like this product, maybe you all are right and I'm wrong. ;-) So maybe I'll pay the $20 and give it a shot. ;-)

[SuitedSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
If guys like Gigabet and some of the rest of you like this product, maybe you all are right and I'm wrong. ;-) So maybe I'll pay the $20 and give it a shot. ;-)

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn Gigabet, first a comparison to Michael Jordan and then a product endorsement. Have you ever thought of getting an agent to handle your marketing? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Gigabet]

[ QUOTE ]
Damn Gigabet, first a comparison to Michael Jordan and then a product endorsement. Have you ever thought of getting an agent to handle your marketing?



[/ QUOTE ] Due to a gag order put on trade negotiations, I am not at liberty to discuss that issue.

[byronkincaid]

Please could you check your PMs.

[oscar057]

Is Party going to make changes to fight the program?

Adam - were the changes you alluded to a result of your program?

[rwanger]

I finally thought of an appropriate analogy concerning pokerprophecy...
This is exactly like illegal file swapping using Napster. The information is in the public domain, but only on a trial type basis. I could watch these players in a sit and go to see how they play. I could also listen to a song on the radio when it comes on, free to all. I could ask a friend how good a certain player is, just like I could ask to borrow a CD from a friend and listen to it. What you CANNOT do, is download every song from every person in the entire world. They sue you for that. This is exactly what PokerProphecy is doing.

I'm not sure how much I want to fight this or not. But even if widespread use of the program were to benefit me (good players stayed away), I still think it's wrong.

I'd like to hear someone from PokerProphecy comment regarding this. I really think it's a clever idea, but I'd hate to see other applications developed that keep taking things one step further.

PS. I'm in LA for a few days right now and played $200NL at Commerce Casino yesterday. You should SEE the action. It's ridiculous. My table routinely had 7 players seeing a flop for $15 or $20 each ($5 BB). I sat there all day, and only came in strongly a few times, with the MORTAL NUTS, and still got plenty of action. Like fish in a barrel...