I've got TPTK & a flush draw...so stop raising me, dammit [Archive]

Harv72b

02-06-2005, 12:22 AM

I decided to get some practice in on my short-handed game earlier tonight. No reads on any other players at this point in the session. BB is (obviously) short-stacked going into the hand.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, BB caps, UTG folds, MP calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
BB bets, MP folds, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

Turn: (10.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: (12.75 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls $4 (All-In).

Final Pot: 20.75 BB
Main Pot: 20.75 BB, between Hero and BB.

Anyone play any streets differently?

Schizo

02-06-2005, 12:42 AM

Normally I wouldn't slow down with the second nuts, but this got capped with an AQ flop and it got capped PF. That means villian could only have QQ, AK, or AA on the flop. Since an A came out on the river we know that AA is not a possibility. Unless villian is a complete idiot you are either splitting w/ Aces full, or losing to quads. Without a read, I'm not going to cap the river. I might not even raise the river.

EDIT: Just saw this was SH, do you realize you are in the SS forum?

Harv72b

02-06-2005, 12:51 AM

Didn't even think about posting it to the SH forum, sorry. I'm so used to posting here that it came naturally.

Either way, I think like a full ring player and it was an underpopulated 10 seated table, so do what you will. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Schizo

02-06-2005, 12:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Didn't even think about posting it to the SH forum, sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]

No need to apologize, I'm just trying to get you the best advice. I'm curious about this as well. Please post villians hand when you are done analyzing this hand.

Still, besides QQ and an A hand, what could villian possibly have?

private joker

02-06-2005, 12:59 AM

I would think if he had QQ he would check-raise the turn, since you capped the flop. So it's probably a chop. I play it the same. If this were live, and he weren't short-stacked, I'd just call a 5-bet. The turn call is good -- raising will accomplish nothing.

Schizo

02-06-2005, 01:02 AM

So if it's a most likely a chop, and possibly a loss, why would you cap the river?

Chairman Wood

02-06-2005, 01:03 AM

If you are Villian and you have QQ I don't think its a good play to check raise. If he is a good player I think he would be more inclined to bet out. If you bet out you are more likely to be raised and you could be 3-bet. On the other hand c/r kills your action on that round and the next round.

Harv72b

02-06-2005, 01:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Still, besides QQ and an A hand, what could villian possibly have?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ordinarily I'd just call the 3-bet, but the fact that he was short-stacked, plus a few hands recently where I've done that only to discover that MHWG, led me to cap. I figure that QQ is extremely rare, so likely the worst that's going to happen is I contribute another dollar to the rake.

Schizo

02-06-2005, 01:04 AM

Chairman wood just sold me. Unless villian is capping PF w/ 22 there is no way I am raising the river.

Schizo

02-06-2005, 01:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
plus a few hands recently where I've done that only to discover that MHWG, led me to cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess that changes things, but I don't see how villian can be stupid enough to cap w/ anything less than an A in this hand.

private joker

02-06-2005, 01:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you bet out you are more likely to be raised and you could be 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I totally disagree. The board just paired Qs. If you have both of them, the other guy doesn't have any of 'em. So it's a scare card. You capped the flop. The board makes his hand worse. Will he raise? No.

private joker

02-06-2005, 01:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]

I guess that changes things, but I don't see how villian can be stupid enough to cap w/ anything less than an A in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

He could be capping the flop with 22 (unlikely, but still...). That doesn't explain his river action, but at least it's a holding that doesn't contain an A. And I've seen people cap any PP preflop.

Harv72b

02-06-2005, 01:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how villian can be stupid enough to cap w/ anything less than an A in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that this in any way pertains to villain in this hand, but the more that I play on SS Party, the more I realize that you can't assume your opponent isn't a dolt. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

sfwusc

02-06-2005, 01:26 AM

Ok he capped PF.

I just dont like the river.

I think i would have call the 3 bet.

I am assuming that he had QQ since you posted it. Most times is going to be split. If you won this hand outright, then please PM me that guys party handle.

SFWUSC

Schizo

02-06-2005, 01:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you won this hand outright, then please PM me that guys party handle.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ditto

Chairman Wood

02-06-2005, 01:45 AM

It is a scare card, but betting out doesn't mean I have this scare card. C/r does. From the perspective of hero, betting out doesn't say I have a Q. It still could just mean I have an A or whatever. C/r here "screams" I have a Q and just kills your action. I think even though that a raise didn't occur here betting out with super monsters is a far better play than c/r.

private joker

02-06-2005, 01:55 AM

Betting the turn with quads gets 2BB from the other guy, because he'll call down for fear of a Q unless he improves. Check-raising gets 3BB (2 on turn, 1 on river), unless he improves. Another benefit to checking the turn with quads here is if the other guy checks behind, and catches up to a second best hand on the river (as might have happened in this hand), then you get a capped river.

Anyway, there's only one way to have QQ, several ways to have an A, and many ways for the Villain to be a complete moron. I like the way Hero played this hand.

Harv72b

02-06-2005, 01:55 AM

FWIW, I don't think that any decent player raises this turn without AA or AQ, either. So in the event that the river isn't an A (or a spade, although I don't see how he can put me on a flush draw), by betting out he's likely to collect only 2 BBs from me. If he check/raises, I'm going to call down anyway in hopes that he's going crazy with a worse A or KK or something, and he gets 3 BBs.

The c/r does scream "I have a Q", but betting out implies it enough that he isn't going to get raised by a hand he beats. That's how I see it, anyway...I'm hardly an expert, though.

private joker

02-06-2005, 01:57 AM

We said the same thing at the same time.

Another thing I just wanted to add in rebuttal to Schizo. I think the vast majority of the time this hand IS a chop, but the times it isn't, I think Hero wins more often than he loses to quads. That is, 5% of the time Villain has quads, 10% of the time the Villain is a standard f[/i]ucktard Party 2/4 loser moron, and 85% of the time it's a chop.

So I like the river action.

Harv72b

02-06-2005, 02:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
10% of the time the Villain is a standard f[/i]ucktard Party 2/4 loser moron.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought I was the only one who used "fucktard". Weird.

That's an excellent point, by the way...the other guy only has to be a tilting idiot 1% more often than he's got quads to make it +EV.

chesspain

02-06-2005, 02:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the vast majority of the time this hand IS a chop, but the times it isn't, I think Hero wins more often than he loses to quads. That is, 5% of the time Villain has quads, 10% of the time the Villain is a standard f[/i]ucktard Party 2/4 loser moron, and 85% of the time it's a chop.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fact that BB is somewhat short-stacked at the start of the hand makes me want to increase the fucktard quotient to at least 20%.

I also think that Harv played it fine.

Harv72b

02-06-2005, 11:16 AM

Well...I dunno if you guys were serious about wanting his screenname or not, but villain had JTo (!) and MHWG. Gotta love tilt. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

sfwusc

02-06-2005, 11:24 AM

No way he played JT like that.

He was on a gut straight draw? I hope they were suited in spades /images/graemlins/smile.gif

PM SFWUSC his name. That is a buddy list player and a note on the computer to search for him everytime you log on.

SFWUSC

jacki

02-06-2005, 12:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
fucktard quotient

[/ QUOTE ]

Where is the poker tracker column for that stat?

lil'

02-06-2005, 12:08 PM

Shorthanded plus shortstacked opponent means you played this one just fine.

jason_t

02-06-2005, 12:36 PM

If you are PM'ing his name, I'll take it too.

Schizo

02-06-2005, 04:26 PM

Damn, ok I'm sold capping now. Private joker, I would just like to point you to this thread and have you tell me what make this so different.

Nut flush w/ Tons of action (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=1565369 &Forum=f3&Words=flush&Searchpage=0&Limit=255&Main= 1560862&Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=23702&dater ange=1&newerval=1&newertype=m&olderval=&oldertype= &bodyprev=#Post1565369)

In this thread you said:
[ QUOTE ]
But like chief said earlier, anyone with any brain at all would HAVE only played the turn like that with a straight flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

No mention of fucktard quotient. I would think a K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif tilt in that thread would be much more likely than the JT in this thread.

Schizo

02-06-2005, 04:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you are PM'ing his name, I'll take it too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ditto.

private joker

02-06-2005, 04:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Damn, ok I'm sold capping now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, now that you've seen the results?

[ QUOTE ]
Private joker, I would just like to point you to this thread and have you tell me what make this so different.

Nut flush w/ Tons of action (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=1565369 &Forum=f3&Words=flush&Searchpage=0&Limit=255&Main= 1560862&Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=23702&dater ange=1&newerval=1&newertype=m&olderval=&oldertype= &bodyprev=#Post1565369)

In this thread you said:
[ QUOTE ]
But like chief said earlier, anyone with any brain at all would HAVE only played the turn like that with a straight flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

No mention of f[/i]ucktard quotient. I would think a K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif tilt in that thread would be much more likely than the JT in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

No mention of a f[/i]ucktard quotient? Nonsense. In that very post you linked me to, I said:

[ QUOTE ]
yeah, if you have a read that he's a total f[/i]uckstick retard, then you can assume differently. But like chief said earlier, anyone with any brain at all would HAVE only played the turn like that with a straight flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

And that's totally consistent with what I said in this thread. Which is that 85% of the time it's a chop, but there are times when he's a tard. This has been... one of those times.

Spook

02-06-2005, 06:24 PM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
Hero raises, 3 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO raises, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.16 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, Hero calls.

River: (11.16 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, CO raises, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 15.16 BB

Here is a hand similar to yours. I led out the river hoping to three bet, but then decided not to.

me454555

02-06-2005, 06:29 PM

I think you can 3 bet this river. He probably has 9x. 4 of a kind is just too much to fear.

I love capping when I think theres going to be a split. 9 outta 10 times its split but that 1 time that he's an idiot you win big.

Of course the times when he actually does have 4 of a kind you feel like an idiot but thats another story /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Spook

02-06-2005, 06:31 PM

when he raised me I got pissed off because I had already put him on an overplayed queen and realized that he rivered me and not the otherway around.

me454555

02-06-2005, 06:33 PM

Why would you make that read? I know its more likely but how certain are you? Its a freeroll anyway if you don't think he's got 99

Schizo

02-06-2005, 07:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Damn, ok I'm sold capping now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, now that you've seen the results?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you look at the post I replied to, you will see:

That's an excellent point, by the way...the other guy only has to be a tilting idiot 1% more often than he's got quads to make it +EV.

I hope you don't think of me as a results oriented moron, do you?

[ QUOTE ]
No mention of a f[/i]ucktard quotient? Nonsense. In that very post you linked me to, I said:

[ QUOTE ]
yeah, if you have a read that he's a total f[/i]uckstick retard, then you can assume differently. But like chief said earlier, anyone with any brain at all would HAVE only played the turn like that with a straight flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

And that's totally consistent with what I said in this thread. Which is that 85% of the time it's a chop, but there are times when he's a tard. This has been... one of those times.

[/ QUOTE ]

In this thread:

No reads on any other players at this point in the session.

So both threads have no read. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Chief say that calling the river was correct in the other thread if you didn't have a read? You called his raise and you did not reraise. But in this thread we are capping without a read. I don't see how that is consistent.

I'm not trying to be an ass, I'm trying to learn and this just seems like conflicting logic to me.

Spook

02-06-2005, 11:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you make that read? I know its more likely but how certain are you? Its a freeroll anyway if you don't think he's got 99

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I just wanted to post a similar hand where I think it is clearer that capping with the second nuts with such a huge pot is pretty much the only play without a solid, solid read.
my villian had QJs, but I still should have capped hoping he had a straight or an overpair. (14 VP$IP and 0 PFR)

Schizo

02-07-2005, 03:01 AM

I agree w/ me454555 on the second hand. You don't have enough information to put him on quads. You have to cap.

Schizo

02-07-2005, 02:16 PM

bump

Schizo

02-07-2005, 10:50 PM

Bump, Question is 4th one up from this post.

Harv72b

02-07-2005, 11:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not trying to be an ass, I'm trying to learn and this just seems like conflicting logic to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't speak for anyone else, but the only times I would ever recommend calling a river raise when only quads could beat you is when you're in a HU situation where there is no cap, or when you have an extraordinary read on your opponent. In the former case, I would still go at least 4 bets before slowing down, while in the latter you should obviously just fold if you're that sure he has the quads.

I don't know the exact odds of hitting quads, but I do know that my PT database has me with 30 quads in 21,895 hands. And I believe that includes the times when I folded before I would have hit them. The obvious conclusion would be that if you cap (or more) every river where only quads will beat you, you will end up far, far ahead in the long run, even if you lose a single big pot here and there. And, as was pointed out earlier in this thread, in a situation where a chop seems like the most likely outcome, all that need happen is for the other guy to be going crazy with a worse hand 1% more often than he has quads for you to make money on the play. I know that I've seen someone 3-bet the river with absolutely nothing far more often than 30 times on Party SS.

Schizo

02-07-2005, 11:21 PM

I agree, but if you go to the thread I linked to, you will see that Private Joker calls down w/ a nut flush in fear of a straight flush. The board up to and including the turn was all diamonds and Joker had the A. If you cap in this situation I'm just curious as what are the significant diferences that prevent you from capping in the nut flush situation.

Harv72b

02-07-2005, 11:31 PM

If I'm thinking of the same hand you're talking about, that situation only required a single specific card to be in the other player's hand (the J if I remember correctly; too lazy to click over /images/graemlins/grin.gif ). In that hand I recommended raising the river and calling a 3-bet, because it's more likely that if he 3-bets the river he's got that one card in his hand (and likewise more likely that he would hold one specific card in the hole, vs. the two specific cards necessary for quads). If the straight flush would require two hole cards to complete, I would recommend capping.

EDIT: nevermind, that's what I get for being lazy.

In that hand I can see the point based on the way that villain played the hand. He called a 3-bet on the flop, but then sprang back to life and bet/raised every time the action went to him once the 8 showed up on the turn. Especially since Hero is holding the A, making it impossible for villain to hold any flush better than K high (which a good player would never cap with on a 4-suited board), it does seem likely that the villain is holding JT. Also, 3-betting in that situation sets Hero up to be capped again on the river, making it more desirable to just call the raise.

Another big difference between the two hands is that Hero will never chop with a flush, whereas the chop seemed much more likely (and many players would cap with the case A) in the double-paired board hand.

Schizo

02-07-2005, 11:38 PM

No, it was a 2 card straight flush.

Here is the thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=1565369 &Forum=f3&Words=flush&Searchpage=0&Limit=255&Main= 1560862&Search=true&where=bodysub&Name=23702&dater ange=1&newerval=1&newertype=m&olderval=&oldertype= &bodyprev=#Post1565369)

This is the hand:

arty Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB completes, Hero raises, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (14 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (7 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 raises, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG folds, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+2 caps, Hero calls.

River: (18.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero calls.

I probably shouldn't be dwelling on this so much, I have bigger holes to patch in my game. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Schizo

02-07-2005, 11:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In that hand I can see the point based on the way that villain played the hand. He called a 3-bet on the flop, but then sprang back to life and bet/raised every time the action went to him once the 8 showed up on the turn. Especially since Hero is holding the A, making it impossible for villain to hold any flush better than K high (which a good player would never cap with on a 4-suited board), it does seem likely that the villain is holding JT. Also, 3-betting in that situation sets Hero up to be capped again on the river, making it more desirable to just call the raise.

Another big difference between the two hands is that Hero will never chop with a flush, whereas the chop seemed much more likely (and many players would cap with the case A) in the double-paired board hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Those are good points. Thanks for the help Harv72b.

private joker

02-07-2005, 11:44 PM

In my hand, the nut flush I held was nowhere near the nuts. The board was paired, so not only could the straight flush beat me, but any full house or quads could too.

In the hand which begun this thread, Hero had the absolute second nuts. Only one way to have quads beat him.

In my hand, Villain could have been a moron raising the turn with a set and just filled up to beat me, or he could have been smart and raised the turn with the straight flush. So therefore, the f[/i]ucktard quotient was less reliable.

Schizo

02-07-2005, 11:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In my hand, Villain could have been a moron raising the turn with a set and just filled up to beat me, or he could have been smart and raised the turn with the straight flush. So therefore, the fucktard quotient was less reliable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya, I guess I completely underestimate the fucktard quotient. It's so hard for me to picture somebody raising and reraising a 4 card flush on the turn w/ only trips. I would think a K would be much more likely. But I understand your point.

I'm pretty convinced that capping this is correct and the way you played the other hand is correct. Thanks for the help Joker.