Middle set on straight flop

[William Jockusch]

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls.

River: (12 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises </font>

I deleted the rest of the river action because it is not relevant to the discussion.

[Brom]

The whole thing looks pretty good to me. Not sure what part you wanted comments on?

[William Jockusch]

1) When to raise -- flop or turn?
2) The turn cap
3) The river

[Brom]

OK I'll comment on why I feel they were played well and see if someone will put up some new thoughts maybe.

The flop is somewhat coordinated so slowplaying isn't the absolute best idea. However I like it here as you only have one opponent and if he has a straight draw he has 8 outs max, but probably only 4. If he has 4 outs then he's getting the wrong price either way, and if he has 8 you can only make him make a mistake by raising the turn. Add in the fact that it looks like you are on just overcards when you call the flop bet so you get to raise the turn and possibly take him for more of a ride when he has two pair. So I like waiting to the turn here.

His turn 3-bet could mean any number of hands from a superdraw to two pair. The only thing you are actually behind is a flopped straight or JJ, of which I think 89 is much more likely. Even if he does have the straight you have 10 outs to improve which you are getting the odds for I guess due to the flury of turn bets now. I think it is much more likely to see two pair here (although I don't know which, is he really loose to call J7s?) or the superdraw of straight and flush.

On the river the flush draw gets there plus now the two pair draw beats you (assuming J7). Put in one raise in case it is the draw or in case he maybe had a lower set.

***As an edit: I don't like the combination of turn getting capped and SB still betting out on that river. That is a pretty scary card to come off for him if he is on the draw yet he still comes at you. I'd probably just call the river.

[JasonP530]

Looks like he filled over you on the river. Depending on how adventurous I am, I raise him and just call if he reraises. Played very well up until then. I like waiting for the turn.

[William Jockusch]

So the river situation is weird. Would he have played the turn that way with JJ? Probably. A straight? Yes. Two pair? Hard to say.

It concerns me a bit that by my turn cap, I am saying I don't think he has the straight. Which presumably means two pair is a likely holding.

But my river raise, I am saying I don't think he had two pair on the turn.

[drbk2]

Very well played. If the board doesn't pair on the river and the sb were to bet again after I capped the turn, i would probably just call. But on the river you must raise. He could have J10 or J7, but he could also have a straight, 77, or if he's a really loose aggressive idiot, AJ.

[Bill C]

With the coordinated board on the flop, I think I'd have raised there, as you are almost certainly in the lead, and a raise here could get you a little info about how he feels about his hand then.
And with the betting pattern on the turn, I'd have called the river. You may be a fave, but only a slight one there, and many scary possibilities exist.

Just my $.02 worth...

bill