O8 Flopped Set, Correct Fold on Turn?

[Madmartigan21]

I HATE hands like this one. Hand that I wouldn't play normally, but have in a blind and end up with a pretty good flop. They always seem to end up being trouble one way or another. This one came when I posted a blind when first taking a seat. I'm still very new to O8 and I have a feeling that I made multiple mistakes.

Party Poker $0.5/$1 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button calls, SB folds.
<font color="red">I thought about raising here instead of a call. My thinking was that I could possibly kick people out of the pot with a weak flush draw with just a weak low draw especially considering the 2 counterfieted any A2XX. Then I thought that too many cards on the turn are potential scare cards and I didn't want to invest too much too soon. </font>
Turn: K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
BB bets, Hero folds, MP1 Calls, MP2 folds,MP3 Calls Button folds.
<font color="red">With 3 to a flush on the board I figure I'm behind for sure. If I call and make 7's full on the river with 2 over cards I was thinking that my fullhouse wouldn't be the best hand </font>
River: 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks.
<font color="red">OH GREAT! Quads on the river with no low draw possible on the board. I scoop the pot except for that pesky old fold on the turn. Is wrong to want to punch my monitor in this situation? I submit that it is not.</font>
Final Pot: 9 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Outcome: BB shows [ As, Jc, 3d, 9h ] two pairs, jacks and sevens.
MP1 shows [ Kh, 4h, Ad, 9d ] two pairs, kings and sevens.
MP3 doesn't show [ 8h, Qc, Jd, Qs ] two pairs, queens and sevens.
MP1 wins $9 from the main pot with two pairs, kings and sevens.
There was no qualifying low hand.
</font>

[Moneyline]

Pre-flop: I don't like open posting here. If you're in late position that's a different story, but up front you might as well just wait 2 hands and save yourself from paying the extra big blind.

Flop: 08 can be weird... this is one of those times. You've flopped a set, but your hand actually isn't very good. I'd probably call too in this spot if the game was passive because the pot is pretty big, but I'd fold to any serious action. If the game was aggressive I wouldn't think twice about mucking.

Turn: This card devalues your hand quite a bit IMO. You could be against a higher set or a flush, and even if you are best at the moment any card that doesn't pair the board (except a 9) makes either a low or a straight possible. To make matters worse, the bet is coming from your right so you could easily get caught between the bettor and the raiser. I think you made the right play by folding.

River: Rabbit hunting shows that your hand would have scooped, but this doesn't mean you should have stayed in the pot. If you come from a hold 'em background (like me) you've probably seen many cases where you would have won a monster pot if you stayed in with a longshot draw you didn't have odds to play. As I'm sure you know, just because the right river comes doesn't mean you should have called on previous streets.

[Steve-o]

I would typically fold on the flop here, you have no low (nothing worth playing anyway), middle set, and the board has 2 to a suit.

At best your playing for 1/2 the pot. and there are too many players involved. If a jack comes on the turn you can't be overly excited, you have 4 legitimate outs to the best high hand 7 if you include a jack, not very good odds for 1/2 the pot.

[Buzz]

Mad Martigan - Trouble is, you're out of position. If you knew no player who acts after you would raise, and that three opponents would see the river, then you would be getting about 9.5 to 1 pot odds to call.

The reason you'd be getting such juicy pot odds is that the game has been so loose, both on the first and second betting rounds.

If the board pairs on the river, you're not playing for half the pot because low will not become enabled. Trouble is, with a jack and a king already on the board, unless the pair is sevens or deuces, although you'll make a full house, it may not be the winning full house. You'll <font color="white">_</font>probably have the winning high hand if the board pairs on the river (even in a loose game like this one). However, there's a substantial chance of running up against an even better full house (kings full or jacks full).

But if you're going to see the turn with your flopped set of sevens, then I think you should be a bit more tenacious and also see the river when the turn does not enable low.

Yes, the board has flushed on the turn, but no matter. Why no matter? Because full houses beat flushes. When you flopped your set of sevens, you should have looked upon your hand as a drawing hand - drawing for a full house or quads. That is, in a loose game like this, you should not expect to win with an unimproved flopped set of sevens. Instead should be thinking about chances for the board to pair. Sure, the unimproved flopped set of sevens will win for high sometimes, but in a game like this one with so many players seeing the turn, your set of sevens (unless the board pairs and you improve to a full house or quads) will lose something like ten times as often as it will win.

If nobody raises behind you on the third betting round, and if there are a couple of callers (as actually happened) you're getting probably 10.5 to 1 implied pot odds and the odds against the board pairing on the river are only 34 to 10, or about 3.4 to 1.

If you only figure odds for the board pairing with sevens or deuces, the odds against that are 41 to 4, or 10.25 to 1. Thus not even counting the board pairing with jacks or kings, you clearly have favorable odds to see the river - as long as you're reasonably sure nobody will raise behind you on the turn.

But there's the rub. You're not sure. BB could be betting a non-nut flush with somebody behind you sitting on the nut flush. And then if the pot gets raised, you're stuck for two big bets.

Position isn't as important in limit Omaha-8 as it is in pot limit games and some other forms of poker, but at times it still does matter - and this is one of those times.

I think Moneyline's advice to wait until the blind passes and then post behind the blind is very sound advice. You'll have better position if you wait and post behind the blind.

But since you've posted and have also paid to see the turn, and since nobody thus far has raised, I'd take a chance and call BB's bet, hoping to see the board pair on the river (ideally with sevens or deuces).

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[3rdEye]

Way too weak to fold on the turn for one bet (unless you have a strong feeling that it's going to be raised behind you). If you don't fill up, you can probably safely fold to a river bet, although I might call for one bet depending on the size of the pot and my experience with the lead bettor.