On the Bubble - intereting puzzle

[Scuba Chuck]

I am making this up, but similar situations occur all the time.

Blinds (200/400)
BB 3,000
HERO 3,000
UTG 1,800
BUTTON 200

HERO is dealt A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Fold to Hero in the SB. What is the advice here?
Can you raise? Is this a mandatory push?

[1C5]

Good question. You push, he folds, you steal his BB. You push, he calls, you will be behind in the hand 95% of the time. Raising might be an option instead? I got yelled at here for doing that before though. It was the same scenerio as this almost and I raised to 900 instead of pushing and he came over the top and reraised all in. I folded but not sure if that was the correct play...

[Scuba Chuck]

It's nice when the first responder gets the question.

I was thinking about this. Put yourself in the BBs shoes. I think it's +$EV to push with any two cards in this scenario.

Is my thinking correct?

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
It's nice when the first responder gets the question.

I was thinking about this. Put yourself in the BBs shoes. I think it's +$EV to push with any two cards in this scenario.

Is my thinking correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't I read a quote here a few days ago that claimed that it's +EV to push from the small blind with any two cards if you have <10 bb left? The caveat was that while this is true over the whole range of hands, it may not be true for each individual hand.

I'd say it's probably +EV to push here from a strictly chip-by-chip perspective, but that doesn't take into account he fact that you're co-chip leader on the bubble, going up against the other chip leader, and a player is due to be knocked out next hand. I'd fold this hand every day and twice on Sunday, +EV be damned.

I also doubt raising then folding a push beats just folding for EV, but that's hard to compute without a read on BB.

The same thing goes for the BB. It may be slightly +EV to push against a standard raise, but so what?

Even if these moves are +EV in terms of winnings, I'd probably choose to fold, just to keep my variance down. The long term tiny edge won't begin to pay for the monitor I throw through my window when I bust out here. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's +$EV to push with any two cards in this scenario.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm semi-new here... does +$EV mean plus cash EV (as in EV of prize money), as opposed to plus tourney chips EV?

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
I am making this up, but similar situations occur all the time.

Blinds (200/400)
BB 3,000
HERO 3,000
UTG 1,800
BUTTON 200

HERO is dealt A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Fold to Hero in the SB. What is the advice here?
Can you raise? Is this a mandatory push?

[/ QUOTE ]

if the BB seems reasonable, push with ATC...if he's wild, or even if you have some doubt...fold.

[Scuba Chuck]

This is a results oriented question.

I ask because I got called in a similar scenario, and lost, OUT OF THE MONEY.

So, given the results, I am asking the question, really, is it better to fold this? Or, maybe, I am asking, Am I a pussy?

It seems like good poker to me, if I were the BB in this situation, and I was dealt AK, I would probably fold it. Any thoughts?

[Gramps]

If you push this hand, and push the next hand (button will be UTG and is unlikely to play unless he has a strong hand), then the stacks become (assuming the button folds his UTG hand)

Hero - 4000
BB - 2400
UTG - 1400
Button - 200

If you fold, it's going to be tough to push through the BB big stack unless you have a strong hand. If he has any sense, he'll push from the SB (and UTG now BB won't call without a monster). Thus, the likely chip count after the next hand becomes:

BB - 3600
Hero - 2800
UTG - 1400
Button - 200

That's pretty tempting to push, seeing that the % of the time you'll get called and lose appears very small (probably only get called with a premium-type hand, what % of the time BB will have it, what % of the time will you not suck out when called by the given range of hands). The vast majority of the time pushing gives you a signficant chip impmrovement and jacks up your odss of getting 2nd and 1st. If BB is loose/will call you out of spite, then maybe be cautious, but otherwise pushing looks like a strong play.

Occassionally the Button will play his UTG hand and that kind of screws things up a little, but also sometimes the button will survive his blinds and go into "survive at all costs" mode, allowing you to steal at will and get a huge chip advantage on everyone else.

If you raise to say 900, you're giving the BB the opportunity to steal 1300 chips without a showdown by coming over the top all-in (and some players make this play with any two cards given the situation). Not a good play IMO unless the BB is a known weak-tightie (won't call/play back at you without a strong hand).

When in doubt in spots like this, my rule of thumb is to err on the side of being aggressive on the bubble. You can certainly be too aggressive, but on close decisions, no shame in playing it strong.

[eastbay]

It really depends on your opponent.

One of the frustrating things about SnGs is that your opponents can make horrid mistakes which also hurt YOU.

By pushing here you are giving him the opportunity to be very stupid by calling with a lot of hands that he should fold, and you don't want that. So if you think he may be stupid, or prideful, or pissed off at you, you should be far more inclined to fold.

eastbay

[Scuba Chuck]

Thanks Gramps. Those are my thoughts exactly. I know I shouldn't have even posted. I am just more surprised by the AK call by BB.

[Scuba Chuck]

Yeah, that's a tough read 3 or 4 tabling. Thanks for your response, though.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks Gramps. Those are my thoughts exactly. I know I shouldn't have even posted. I am just more surprised by the AK call by BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would prolly call with AK I must admit.

[Gramps]

I think it was a really good post, a lot of people would take the safe route here even if they knew BB wasn't loose. Good to think through things like that. Just sucks he had AK, that he called, and that his 70%'er held up.

At least you made a few Sklansky dollars... /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[iMsoLucky0]

Another consideration to make here is what level you are playing on. At the 33 and smaller levels, I would expect that you would get called here much more often. However, once you get to 55 (maybe), and definitely into the 109s and 215s, I think that this is a push, every time and I make it with any two cards.

The position you are in here is a great opportunity to take control of the tournament and put yourself in the driver's seat to win first. Push here, push the next hand, and as Gramps showed, you will have 4000 chips compared to 2400, 1400, and 200.

At this point you fold, and pray that the 200 stack wins his allin hand, so that you can steal even more chips from the two medium stacks.

Yes, sometimes they will wake up and call with JJ+ or AK (if they're not worried about just making it ITM), but load up pokerstove, and look at your odds of them not calling + your odds of winning if you are called.

Like I said, I think it all results in making this an easy push, giving you the opportunity to cruise into first.

[NuklearWinter]

I would raise to 2-3x BB... either 1050 total or 1125.
If he pushes, I fold and assume he has either 7's or better, or A-T or better, which would put me at 30%. Easy decision.

[iMsoLucky0]

Raising to 2 or 3X the BB is the worst possible move here, IMO. The reason it is so bad is because any good player will push in over the top here with any two because he knows you cant call on the bubble.

[lorinda]

I'm semi-new here... does +$EV mean plus cash EV (as in EV of prize money), as opposed to plus tourney chips EV?

Yes. Although EV tends to be used to also mean the same thing, $EV is more specific.

Lori

[Roan]

I am not willing to go broke on this hand, there is no way I go all in preflop. The worst thing you can do in a SNG is finish 4th, and pushing brings a 4th place finish into the realm of possibility.

If it were me, I would probably fold and wait for a better opportunity (maybe i consider a raise 2-3BB and fold if he comes over the top, depends on my read of him), I think there are still a lot of hands to be played and many opportunities to take over the chip lead, I don't want those 400 chips bad enough to justify finishing 4th.

[Mr_J]

They often pause for an earlier raise or 2.

[FishBurger]

I would just raise and I'll tell you why:

First, I know you (as well as myself) play at the $20 level. At that level, I don't believe that stack size correlates as closely to ending position as it does as higher levels. That is, I don't believe that a big stack with 45% of the chips will finish first 45% of the time. Many times big stacks at this level have no idea how to play once they get into the money.

Therefore, I would just minraise here and hope to steal the BB. If I get re-raised, I'm folding so that I can still make it into the money. Most likely, the BB is just as scared as you are and is just looking to make the money. You will get a fold here most of the time unless the BB has premium cards.

At the higher levels, this is probably a fold or a push, but at the lower levels, I think you can minraise and put your faith into the ineptitude of your opponents.

[Mr_J]

Nice one.

Button is nearly out, so do you play it safe for an ITM or take advantage of the other players who will probally play it safe?

Exact same number of chips??? Ok. I understand why you want to just raise. You want to be able to get away from a BB monster. How often will he have a monster though? Even if he is loose (fish), he is more likely to fold than usual since BB is nearly out of it. I would probally take advantage of someone being so shortstacked and push. If you successfully stole, then you become the bigstack and get to bully the other around why keeping shortstack alive (I love doing this).

It isn't surprising that a guy called with AK in this sort of situation.

*edited to say I wouldn't push vs all opponents. If they were maniacs I'd fold.

[microbet]

I'd only mini-raise if I've seen some evidence that it is likely to work, but you brought up a good point about chip stacks and finishing position. I play in the $11s and it seems like most players get very careful on the bubble, but don't immediately make an adjustment when they get in the money, which makes it a fairly common occurance to come into the money shortstacked and come out with a 1st or 2nd.

I think as I move up levels it will be definately something to watch how the end-game skill levels impact the borderline 'play for first or settle for third' decisions.

[Scuba Chuck]

I am not willing to go broke on this hand, there is no way I go all in preflop. The worst thing you can do in a SNG is finish 4th, and pushing brings a 4th place finish into the realm of possibility.

I hate to burst your bubble, but pushing doesn't bring about 4th place. Calling does.

[Roan]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not willing to go broke on this hand, there is no way I go all in preflop. The worst thing you can do in a SNG is finish 4th, and pushing brings a 4th place finish into the realm of possibility.

I hate to burst your bubble, but pushing doesn't bring about 4th place. Calling does.

[/ QUOTE ]


I dont think that my bubble is burst. Since you and the BB have equal stacks if you push and get called and then lose you finish 4th no?

[Mr_J]

Unless BB is a maniac, BB won't call without a premium hand (thx to shortstack) and it's very unlikely he has one.

[Roan]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless BB is a maniac, BB won't call without a premium hand (thx to shortstack) and it's very unlikely he has one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with everthing you say, it is unlikely. My point is that I would rather have a sure fire ITM finish than risk either him having a premium hand or calling and sucking out

[TheAmp]

Very interesting post, And one of those "critical plays" that really make a difference.
strong arguments have been made for folding, raising and pushing (the only consensus is that calling is the worst play).
As eastbay mentioned, the type of player you are up against is a key element in this situation.
lets analyze the play as a function of the BB's playing style:
1) maniac - it seems everyone agrees that folding is the best play in this case. this is because the maniac will call too often when you push, and push himself when you just raise. the maniac will give away not only his own equity but yours as well : the other two players will gain tremendously if 6000 chips go in the middle right there. in this situation the maniac gains from his style, but he should be punished later.
2) Tight - in this case you have a lot of folding equity. it seems best to just raise here because if he moves in on you it means that you are most likely beat and that he has a monster. moving in therefore gains little (in comparison to raising) but risks a lot.
3) no read - tough decision. the risks described above are just to big to bet, therefore my preferred play is to fold. I am well aware that most likely the best hand is being folded, but that is not so bad. we all know situations where better hands should be folded (versus all-in in the bubble), and this should be an extension of those ideas.

[rachelwxm]

Tough one.

I want to add to the complexity here. Do you ever think of calling here? If I put in another 200 and have a shot of taking back 600 back on flop if bb does not hit anything. That's pretty good odds unless bb is going to raise like >70% of time.

This is one example where EV deviates significantly from ChipEV; I estimate if you know bb would call, you need to win 75% of time to justify this push. Thus I am not sure if bb should call with AK here if he assumes you would push with any two.

So I think if bb is not particularly aggressive, calling is pretty attractive. If you are raised, curse and fold. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[alittle]

[ QUOTE ]
Tough one.

I want to add to the complexity here. Do you ever think of calling here? If I put in another 200 and have a shot of taking back 600 back on flop if bb does not hit anything. That's pretty good odds unless bb is going to raise like >70% of time.

This is one example where EV deviates significantly from ChipEV; I estimate if you know bb would call, you need to win 75% of time to justify this push. Thus I am not sure if bb should call with AK here if he assumes you would push with any two.

So I think if bb is not particularly aggressive, calling is pretty attractive. If you are raised, curse and fold. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
First off, I agree with most of the analysis to push or fold based on the type of player. I sometimes run into this siutation and don't have a feel for how the BB will act when on the bubble. I don't think calling is the right action, but I will sometimes do it to get a read for later and to feign weakness.

I want to see if he will just check (terrible) or raise, and many times I'll see a min raise (even worse). In the smaller games, it seems like this happens a lot. I'll fold to a real raise or all-in, probably come in over the top of a min raise, and obviously play out if he checks. If my hand is fairly weak, I may even fold to the min raise so I can make him think I am timid and push him around later.

It only costs half the blind to get some info and possibly create some deception. Of course, that assumes anyone is paying attention.

[sofere]

As every one says I think it is very read buy-in/read dependent.

The past few days I've been in this situation with mid pockets and have been consistently been called by AJ+ (Stars 11s). It does seem that many players will play very similarly against a 2.5-3xbb raise as a minraise, so I may start to test that out instead of pushing, even though it hurts me deeply whenever I minraise.

[sofere]

How would your responses differ if BB had you covered by 1-2 BBs? You have BB covered by 1-2 BBs?

[HoldingFolding]

It's easier to extrapolate to a large number of SNGs. BB won't call your all in unless he has a premium hand. In another thread someone calculated this as close to 5% - and that's being generous. That's what makes this such an effective play in the long run.

Even if you get called you probably have at least 40% chance of doubling up, giving you a much higher probility of reaching 1st or 2nd (respectively quadruple and twice the profitability of 3rd remember).

These threads usually exist because the person got knocked out and thinks they might have made a mistake. Everyone recalls the time BB turned over AA, but no-one remembers the numerous times they picked up the blinds, the small stack got knocked out and they went on to get 1st or 2nd - and of course no-one starts threads of that ilk either.