Bubble question:easy push here?

[1C5]

Would have you pushed this? What about with any 2 cards? Push no matter what you hold? (this is Party $11)

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t3450)
Hero (t850)
SB (t1100)
BB (t2600)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t850 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls t550.

Flop: (t1850) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t1850) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t1850) 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t1850

[Scuba Chuck]

I see your dilemma. Frankly I would have preferred to push the previous hand with any two cards if that was a possibility.

In light of the current situation, I think I would just call in the BB if you don't get a better hand next orbit. Meaning, I would have folded.

[1C5]

This is the previous hand, easy push here even after someone raised?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button (t3450)
Hero (t1000)
BB (t1400)
UTG (t2150)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t600</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t1050

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
This is the previous hand, easy push here even after someone raised?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, not an easy push with the raise. You have no FE at all. (It might still be right to push depending on your opponent's style -- I'm not sure, but I doubt it. Anyone else want to chime in?)

[Scuba Chuck]

Since I responded that a push on the previous hand would have been more attractive, I can see why you folded the previous hand, in hopes of a better opportunity.

Being a newbie at ICM analysis, here is a hand where I can see why ICM doesn’t always provide the best answer.

The answer is clouded with other unconsidered factors like current blinds and remaining players.

I posted a similar scenario to this just today, but with 77. It's interesting that 77 has almost exactly 50% equity against a likely range of pushing hands. 33 only has 43%.

ICM analysis: FINDINGS
Folding: 12.5% of prizepool

Pushing: 12.4% of prizepool

CALCULATIONS
I put the likelihood of villain folding to a reraise at 0%, which IMHO, is 100% correct. If I am wrong, then the resulting probabilities of a fold, would push the ICM results to a resounding +$EV move.

Pushing and win: 28.75% of prizepool
Pushing and lose: 0.00% of prizepool

Pushing = (.43)(.2875) + (.57)(0.00) = 12.4%

RESULTS
I think that the closeness of this answer, and due to the factors of current stack, upcoming blinds, and number of players left lead me to believe that Pushing is the right answer.

I am by no means the best resource for this answer, any other expert opinions/findings?

[Scuba Chuck]

No, not an easy push with the raise. You have no FE at all.

I agree with you that HERO has no FE, and I agree that this is not an "easy" push. I do, though, caution you on your statement as it might imply that it's an "easy" fold. Before the hand, Hero currently has FE against only one current opponent. After another orbit of blinds, he will have FE against none of his opponents. Being that HERO is the small stack, a showdown is likely in his near future. Hand selection is the important decision here.

His options are:
1) Push with 33, and hope that his coinflip situation wins.
2) Push next hand with any two cards as OP's original post is essentially about.
3) Wait and hope that he gets a better hand to play, which will for sure cost him chips and FE.

IMO, he has a decision to be made in the next 3-6 hands (assuming remaining players are intelligent enough to watch small stack figure out his conundrum. If another stack is willing to risk his tourney life at this point, this is the best scenario for HERO.)

Betting that the future will be a little bit brighter for hero by waiting is for sure a gamble. I don't have any answers that are "bullet proof." But I do like to see what ICM analysis indicates.

Ultimately the question becomes, "How do you feel about going to battle with 33?"

[Scuba Chuck]

Anyone interested on info on ICM calculations, see the following site, which gives history and original 2+2 post.

http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]

I agree with you that HERO has no FE, but I disagree with your statement that this is NOT an easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't mean to say it was necessarily wrong to push, just that it's not an easy decision. The question is, which situation would you rather be in? (I'll assume you don't get a great hand before the blinds come around again)

1)Allin with 33 vs UTG raise, 100% chance of call
2) xx vs xx, with you allin as the aggressor, but down to 850 chips. (Assuming you also fold the BB). I'd say you have low, but not 0 FE here.

I don't think it's clear-cut. Plus you MIGHT get a great hand during the next orbit.

[Scuba Chuck]

Ah, Atticus, you got to my response before my edit. LOL, thinking on the same page it seems.

[AtticusFinch]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone interested on info on ICM calculations, see the following site, which gives history and original 2+2 post.

http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, Chuck.

[1C5]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I agree with you that HERO has no FE, but I disagree with your statement that this is NOT an easy push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't mean to say it was necessarily wrong to push, just that it's not an easy decision. The question is, which situation would you rather be in? (I'll assume you don't get a great hand before the blinds come around again)

1)Allin with 33 vs UTG raise, 100% chance of call
2) xx vs xx, with you allin as the aggressor, but down to 850 chips. (Assuming you also fold the BB). I'd say you have low, but not 0 FE here.

I don't think it's clear-cut. Plus you MIGHT get a great hand during the next orbit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thaks for the discussion guys. Yes, this post describes my problem perfectly. Both plays are close in EV I would think and I chose the 2nd one and not the first (all in with 33) or 3rd (wait for a better hand). Just wondering what some other people would do here.