push with 44 on bubble?

[TheAmp]

Hi,
do you think it is correct to push with 44 on the bubble here? if not , what is the lowest poket pair to push with?
thanks...

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed)

BB (t4810)
UTG (t2360)
Hero (t1270)
SB (t1560)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls t300, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1270 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls t970, UTG folds.

Flop: (t2990) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t2990) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t2990) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t2990

[partygirluk]

22 - unless you have a strong read that UTG is trapping.

[Pokerscott]

I wouldn't push here.

UTG is voluntarily picking a fight with the big stack. I put him on a pretty strong hand here. You also would really really like to be first into the pot. If you get called (which is more likely given UTG has improved the pot odds with chips in) you are either a coin flip or a horrible dog...wheeee

Definitely fold this. Who knows? The bigstack may bust the second stack. I would wait until I had a chance to get into the pot first, and then push with any hand I thought unlikely to be dominated (two middle cards at least). If I ever got into 3rd chip position I would lock it down until the 4th guy either passes me or is out.

I would push here somewhere around 88+

Pokerscott

[BigHobo]

I'd push here every time. You're a favorite to any hand other than a higher PP (which I doubt UTG has or else he probably would have raised) and your stack is big enough to have some fold equity.

[jojobinks]

44 hopes for a coinflip. and the limp indicates a hand. this calls for an autofold

[Sean_A]

Right on, I would fold after the UTG raise. Calling is also not an option here because of 10 high cards.

[VanVeen]

Fold and it's not close. Not only are you almost certainly going to be involved in a coinflip or worse situation, but you're against three players who undoubtedly suck. The opportunity cost of pushing is just too high with your stack, an UTG limper, and the stack sizes of those left to act.

If my stack were a little smaller I'd consider it.

[Elektrik]

Unless you know UTG to limp only with strong hands (he's never limped before with big blinds) this is a push.

[ripped]

Fold..easy call. 4 players left and 3 pay. that alone is the biggest reason to drop these cards and hope to get in the top 3.

[Pepsquad]

I agree with the push. You are the short-stack. YOU are the one needing to double up. At 4-handed, you're are paying t450 every 4 hands - when do you expect to see another pocket pair? I push here with 22+, any ace and any suited connector lower than J-10, the lower the better.

Pep.

[partygirluk]

This is not even close.

UTG had limped. This probably means he has a bad hand. He knows that if he calls and loses, he is the short stack on the bubble. Thus you have lots of fold equity. SB will not be keen to pick a fight either.

A large amount of the time you will add 750 to your stack, which is massive in terms of EV. If you get called, you will likely be a 55% favourite to more than double up!

[1C5]

I would push here also. Like someone said many time the guy will fold and you pick up the chips without a showdown.

[TheAmp]

Thanks everybody for answering.
Folding seems so clear to me now, for all the reasons mentioned, especially the fact that i am coinfliping myself out of the money.
the real questions is if to push as first one in?
folding might be better even in this case, IMO.

[AA suited]

is this a 10+1 or 50+5?

if 10+1, utg limping vs bigstack as bb= weak. if 50+5, utg limping vs bigstack as bb= monster and wants to trap.

at 10+1, push.

at 50+5, given that the sb is also a short stack, fold. if at 50+5, and you were the only short stack, then i don't know. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[TheAmp]

hi AA,
it was a 50+5, but I think folding is best even at 10+1, because of better future opportunities versus weak players.

[11t]

I agree with the push here.

You are at 4x BB on the button and in 3 hands your stack is going to be cut in 1/3rd by the blinds. I say push, and try to win the pot uncontested. If you get called you are a marginal favorite unless he has an overpair, and if he does then you go out in 4th. If you win you will be in good position to make a run for 1st, which is what I think the goal of every STT is since that is where the majority of the money is.

Now, lets say you fold, what are you goint to do now? You are still the one of the two small stacks and you will most likely be called and have to show down a hand to the river or wait for the other guy to make a play and hope he goes out. I have actually had this exact same scenario occur a few times where I have a low pp and push on the bubble and get called by a-x. It is a gamble but I think it is a good one to take as long as you are the aggressor.

I think this is one of those "Am I playing for 3rd or for 1st?" decisions, and I play for first. I would however expect a call from the UTG if he limped, and I suspect he hit the set on the flop.

[TheAmp]

UTG folded BB called with A9 and I lost.