Odds Simulation for NL

[DavidB_REE]

Since NL hands often don't go to showdown, the strength of one's hand at the flop is more important that in limit Hold'em.

Does anyone know of a resource for an odds simulation of the relative strength of hole cards, *as of the flop only*?

Thanks in advance!

David

[evanski]

Maybe im an idiot, but how is this any different than a normal odds calculator?

-evan

[greg nice]

[ QUOTE ]

Does anyone know of a resource for an odds simulation of the relative strength of hole cards, *as of the flop only*?


[/ QUOTE ]

position

[DavidB_REE]

Because all odds calculators I've seen assume the hand will be played until the river. That increases the value of drawing hands.

But in NL, large decisions are often forced at the flop.

[GFunk911]

[ QUOTE ]
Since NL hands often don't go to showdown, the strength of one's hand at the flop is more important that in limit Hold'em.

Does anyone know of a resource for an odds simulation of the relative strength of hole cards, *as of the flop only*?

Thanks in advance!

David

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand your thinking, but your reasoning here (wanting a "best hand on flop" calculator) is off, in my opinion. Who wins a "flop showdown" has no bearing on which hand is better. QJs flops Ts9s4c against pocket deuces. Deuces is the best hand, but QJ has by far the most pot equity, and the much more betable hand. Which hand is winning the "flop showdown" is irrelevant. In fact, which hand was best on the flop would be much more closely related to limit hand rankings that no limit.

I believe the concept you are alluding to is the fact that, since most hands don't go to showdown, the ability of the hand to make a mediocre, showdownable hand is much less important. Say I've got a suited connector that flops a flush draw, and i bet my opponent off top pair with a medium kicker. I didn't win the hand because my hand was "better on the flop." I won the hand because my cards enabled me to bet the flop hard, giving me significant flop equity. They enabled this because they are 35% against most of my opponent's possible holdings (the beauty of NL drawing hands). Again, however, the increased value of a draw in NL isn't because of the "flop showdown."

Hope this helps, if I came off like a prick I apologize.

[Usagi_yo]

I think it's a fantastic idea and I've had it for years. I've begged programmer friends to write one, and even inquired into a consultant to write one for a fee.

[MagikKid]

Please correct me if I am wrong, but I fail to understand the value of this at all. If you were going to evaluate the strength of a made hand vs. a big draw using this method, the made hand would be a 100% favorite every time, even if it were an underdog to win the pot (unless I am missing something). If you want to figure the relative strength of your hand only on the flop, then could you not just look at the board, figure out the nuts and how many made hands beat your current holding? So many other factors are involved also in a real hand; i.e. fold equity, table image, opponent tendencies, etc. that I have a hard time understanding the potential value of such a tool. So much of no limit poker is conceptual and the value of many hands is implied. Am I missing something?

Magik

[the alex]

[ QUOTE ]
If you were going to evaluate the strength of a made hand vs. a big draw using this method, the made hand would be a 100% favorite every time, even if it were an underdog to win the pot (unless I am missing something).

[/ QUOTE ]

The best hand is not always the favorite and the favorite can never be the favorite and the underdog at the same time.

I.E.

Player A: J/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/club.gif
Player B: K/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Flop: 6/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Player A is a 5:4 favorite to have the best hand after the turn and river.

Another similar example:

Player A: A/images/graemlins/club.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif
Player B: 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Flop: Q/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif

Player A is a 3:2 favorite against the pair of nines with Ace high with 2 overcards, a flush draw and a gutshot.

[MagikKid]

That is my point. He is talking about a calculator that only evaluates on the flop, not taking into consideration the two more cards to come. I agree with you, which is why it makes no sense to have such a tool.

Magik

p.s. Did you even read the original post?

[the alex]

My reply was to you, Magik, not David. I did misunderstand your post because YOU misunderstood David's.

[the alex]

What are you looking for, David? The odds at having:

A.) The better hand?

B.) Being the favorite on the flop?

or

C.) Picking up a draw that would justifying further playing the hand, so you know what what price you should get to play that 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif7/images/graemlins/spade.gif in the first place?